Brier, What do you think?

I was recently invloved in a game that I would like to get an opinion on. It was a 10-20 Hold'em game. The hand in question had 4 players, Player A (a weak player who sometimes overbets his hand), Player B ( a good player, very aggressive who always has an unknow holding), Player C (very tight, weak and also intimidated), Player D ( a good player, tight but aggresive). Pre-flop all Players called and Player D raised... all 3 players called. The Flop came Ad-Kh-Jd, Player A checked, Player B bet, Player C (holding JJ) raised, Player D re-raised, Player A (capped the betting), Player B called... what should Player C have done? Is it an automatic call...? He folded!!!

[Rick Nebiolo]

I’m no Jim Brier but I know Jim Brier so I’ll answer.

The only player likely to have a bigger set (with AA or KK) is player D since he put in the only pre flop raise. On the flop Player D reraised when others may have done the re-raising for him. I would think that if he held a big set he cold calls the flop action (hoping it gets re-raised by player B) and pops it on the turn (unless a four card straight shows up and there is action to him). He also might be against a straight but he has odds to draw out. It is more likely he is up against two pair and a draw.

IMO it's an easy call. This guy sounds like he is afraid of his own shadow.

Regards,

Rick

Hi. This is a nice question, I played in a gigantic online pot which was
almost identical to the one described here:
I flopped nut str8 QJs with a board of AKT with 2 bets preflop, capped
on the flop and turn, and 4 callers all the way to the river where I won
about 37-38 big bets.

People with flush draws and 2 pairs and flopped sets were playing with a
lot of potential outs, although it turned out that the set was drawing dead
since his 4th K or T (I forget) was in someone's hand.

Based on thinking about that hand I do not think that this is a clearcut call
for Mr. JJJ. Here's why: There are 3 others. If anyone has an overset or
a flopped str8, then Mr. JJJ is playing to a 5% one outer. I think it is more
than 70% likely given this betting pattern in most situations -unless you
are in LA, in which
case it is 70% likely that they could have anything, including a Q3o hoping
for a T. Oh please gimme a ten, please please.

In cases (30%) where JJJ is ahead, with two cards to come and 3 others and
any A, K, Q, T, or diamond beats him, he is drawing about 35% to still be
ahead at the end (rough estimate). That's about 10%shot, in my opinion.

And I mostly play online middle stakes. With this betting pattern I would
know 99.99% sure that I was drawing to the last J and chuck this
hand in a split second.

Mark