Just Curious about a 4% winrate over 1200 hands

[meanjean]

I have won 43 of my last 1200 hands. What are the chances of this assuming full ten person table and everybody has an equal chance of winning?

I'm not accusing the site of being rigged...I'm just curious.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I have won 43 of my last 1200 hands. What are the chances of this assuming full ten person table and everybody has an equal chance of winning?

I'm not accusing the site of being rigged...I'm just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously the answer depends on how well you play. But assuming that you have a 1/10 chance of winning in each hand, the distribution of total hands won is approximately normal with mu=120 and sigma=sqrt((.1*.9*1200))=10.39.

Without even plugging this into a normal dist calculator, I can see that the prob is very low, far less than .3%.

Essentially, if you are a break even player, this is almost impossible.


HTH,
gm

[meanjean]

thanks and obviously I was not even remotely close to a break even player during this streak

[Siegmund]

It is possible to be a winning player and only win 7 or 8% of pots, and most tight players do in fact win a bit less than 10%.

Still, you are on a heck of a bad run: 5.6 standard deviations down for an 8% win rate and 4.6 for 7%.