Party $15/$30, pocket 9's

[Fianchetto]

Party $15/$30, 9 handed.

I don't have the hand history, but here is how it went down, I am UTG+2 with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG+1 open raises....

I have notes on UTG+1, he is a little bit on the loose aggressive side, but not a total donk. Something like VP$IP: 28% PFR: 15%

... I 3-bet, folded around to the BB who calls, UTG+1 caps, we call

3 players (6BB)

Flop: T /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG+1 bets, I call, BB calls.

3 players (7.5BB)

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG+1 bets, I raise, BB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, I call, BB calls

3 players (16.5BB)

River: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG+1 bets, I call, BB folds.

Comments? Anyone play it different?

Results to follow.

[SinCityGuy]

You've got a one card straight draw to the ass end, and you don't have the 9 of clubs.

I'm for folding this on the flop.

[Kaz The Original]

I was thinking this, and wasn't sure if it was too weak. I mean, it is "open ended" but if you hit the king you can't be very confidant.

I fold the flop too.

[CanKid]

I wouldn't have raised the turn - assuming you ARE ahead, any club, pair or A / K / 9 on river is bad news

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't have raised the turn - assuming you ARE ahead, any club, pair or A / K / 9 on river is bad news

[/ QUOTE ]

...but that is why I raised the turn. If my hand is currently best I wanted to protect it by facing the BB with two bets cold. I would like him to fold any random club or other pair+gutshot type hand he might have, or at least charge him the max.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
...but that is why I raised the turn. If my hand is currently best I wanted to protect it by facing the BB with two bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good idea vs the BB, but UTG1 hasn't slowed down a step. What hand would he play this way, from this position, you're ahead of?

[SA125]

There I go not being perfect again. Sorry.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a good idea vs the BB, but UTG1 hasn't slowed down a step. What hand would he play this way, from this position, you're ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

When it is my action on the turn here is the range of hands I think he could have:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ ... maybe KQs, 88.

I beat all of those except for AK...but I have to start giving more weight to it after his turn reraise.

He's a little loose aggressive, but he did cap preflop, so okay even restricting it to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK.

I still beat most of those.

[TheBusiness]

What about AQ clubs? He flops top pair, top kicker...turns the nuts. Seems like a possiblity with his VPIP and PRF percentages.

[TheBusiness]

And for the record, I am in the fold your hand on the flop camp. Given his preflop cap, it is basically impossible that you are ahead on the flop unless he is on a pure bluff. You have to make a hand on the turn or river to get ahead, but if a king hits, you have the ass end, and if you hit your set a king beats you. That really only leaves you 4 outs, and even the 8 of clubs could hurt you, as I suspect it did. This all assumes he is not on AK, which beats you anyway. I think you are beat by too many hands here and have too dangerous of a draw to call any bets on the flop.

[CanKid]

[ QUOTE ]
If my hand is currently best I wanted to protect it by facing the BB with two bets cold. I would like him to fold any random club or other pair+gutshot type hand he might have, or at least charge him the max.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I would have preferred to not see the action after your turn raise - that might be messing up my thoughts on the matter.

Would the PFR really 3 bet your turn raise with such a turn card without AK? (with and/or without a club?)

I just don't like how this hand feels, between drawing dead, dodging half the deck, and possibly splitting the pot with BB (who may also be freerolling a club draw), i think this isn't good

[That guy]

anyone fold this pre-flop? 99 vs UTG 28% raiser...

[pianist]

Hands like these are easier to play if you don't start out by trying to isolate yourself into a heads-up situation where you will almost always be either a small favorite or a big underdog. Just call before the flop.

/images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[steveyz]

nope, i'd 3-bet if I think I can isolate, cold call if I think I will get several callers behind.

[jgorham]

I think you played this fine. Preflop is the only question, but if you are confident your 3bet can isolate this guy then it is a fine play - if you are pretty sure others are hopping into the pot regardless I would just call.

Anyone who folds this flop is giving away money. The pot is rather large at this point, how on earth can you fold here? Sometimes you will make your straight and lose, that is true. But when you do win you will be winning quite the pot! No flop fold.

On the turn the raise is the correct play - you want to face BB with 2 cold to get him to fold a middleish club that might take down the pot. When he calls and UTG 3bets I think calldown mode is fine for the rest of the hand.

[jgorham]

Did you take into account the size of the pot at all? You are correct that he probably only has 4 outs here, but there are 7.5 BIG bets in the pot. He is getting 15 to 1 on his money. He should be calling with 3 outs or better.

[steveyz]

That's not totally true. The chances hero is a big dog is slim because this guy is a pretty loose raiser. And although there is a good chance villian has 2 overcards, you are still favorite and if you get the blinds to fold, there will be more than enough of an overlay from the blinds. Also, there is also a good chance you have the raiser dominated if he has A2 to A9, or 22-88. I've seen a lot of loose raiser raising early with small pocket pair.

I don't mind just calling here if you think you can't isolate and there will be several cold callers behind if you just call.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you take into account the size of the pot at all? You are correct that he probably only has 4 outs here, but there are 7.5 BIG bets in the pot. He is getting 15 to 1 on his money. He should be calling with 3 outs or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

You also need to consider reverse implied odds and redraws.

[jgorham]

Most of the time hero is going to be folding on the turn here. So the river card is the only card to worry about in terms of reverse implied odds. I feel like the size of that pot justifies the chance that the straight loses to a flush or fullhouse - it is only 3handed in any case.

[TheBusiness]

I agree that it is not an easy decision to fold this on the flop, because the pot is sizeable, but a few minor objections to your argument swing me to the fold on the flop camp. 1) There are technically only 6.5 big bets in the pot when hero has to act on the flop, not 7.5. You can't count Hero or the big blind's calls until after flop action is complete. 2) Hero has to dodge a club, or at least be more cautious if a club hits on either the turn or the river. 3) You have to consider the likelihood that UTG+1 is on AK, a real possibility given the way he has bet so far, which means Hero's supposed 4 outs may only end up costing him more money if they hit.

[jgorham]

You are correct that I misread the pot size, but I think you are a bit too quick giving the PF raiser AK. A typically tight player could have Ak, AA, KK, QQ, or JJ here. A player who raises 15% preflop probably has a larger range here - AQs, T's etc. On the flop all the info you have is that this person felt strong enough to cap preflop and lead the flop.

It isn't until the turn 3bet that I think AK is likely, which is why at that point I feel calling down is the correct play - but before that you are giving him too much credit.

[TheBusiness]

You are right that my knowledge of the three-bet on the turn may be corrupting my view of the hand slightly. But even so, I am not saying there was a high likelihood he held AK, I am simply saying that he had 4 outs AT BEST, and maybe not even that. There is some chance that either the big blind or the PF raiser has a club draw, which means the 8 of clubs may not be an out, and there is a decent chance that the PF raiser has AK, which means none of the 8's are outs. So Hero may have 4 outs, but there is a decent chance that some or all of those outs are illusory and will cost him more money. With only 6.5 big bets in the pot and very few or maybe no guaranteed outs, I think a fold on the flop is best. But I agree its a tough decision.

[Fianchetto]

UTG+1 had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and I was in a world of hurt.

Funny thing was when it flopped I thought to myself, I better play this cautiously 'cause if he has AK I'm screwed.

[pianist]

The original poster wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
I have notes on UTG+1, he is a little bit on the loose aggressive side, but not a total donk. Something like VP$IP: 28% PFR: 15%

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I admit...I have NO CLUE what VP$IP and PFR mean, but I know what the first sentence means.

I also know that while there are lots of players in Party 15/30 who play way too loose up front, only a FRACTION of them open-raise with junk in early position. Most of them open-limp with their small pairs and suited trash.

/images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[youngin20]

I fold this to the turn 3-bet. i think AK is if not totally obvious, really possible. but then again i play in rather passive games.

[DiamondDave]

Fold it preflop.

The opener could have a higher pocket pair, in which case you'll win about 1 time out of 5 if you get it heads-up and show down your hand every time.

If the opener has unpaired high cards, you are a very small favorite if you can get it heads-up. Given your position and what I have witnessed recently in 15/30 games, it is not certain that a reraise will knock everyone out. This depends on your opponents and how they perceive you and each other.

Your 99 would be more of a favorite against the opener if he were raising with a small pair, a weak ace, a medium suited connector, or a worse hand. But the looser he is, the less likely it is that the other players will let you have your way with him.

And if other players choose to interfere with your attempt to isolate the opener, you will find yourself looking at a large pot while holding a hand that may be best (who knows?), is very vulnerable if it is, and is drawing very slim if it isn't.

[SinCityGuy]

There's nothing quite as bad as drawing dead, making your hand and losing money. I was trying to point that out in my initial post.

[TStoneMBD]

fold flop

[TStoneMBD]

also, i would cap this turn. you make BB pay on his draw, and UTG will check to you on the river, fearing that you have a flush, and you can check through.

[William Jockusch]

Preflop: close, but I think you should fold. I know he's a little loose on the raising, but I don't think he's quite loose enough to justify your reraise.

Flop: perfect. Pot is too big to fold here. And I don't think raising would chase enough people out to make it worthwhile.

Turn: flat call. You are behind to AK and to the flush. If your hand is currently good, it's highly dubious that a raise will protect it.

Another reason to flat call is, if it comes back around to you at 3 bets, you can fold.

River: You gotta pay it off.

[William Jockusch]

Sincity: wrong. It's worse to fold a winner in a big pot.

[TStoneMBD]

how can you consider chasing on the flop when the BB could raise, and UTG can 3bet? how can you consider chasing on the flop if you arent even going to raise the turn when one of your 4 outs come?

[William Jockusch]

Because the pot is so huge.

And you don't know if you have 0 outs, 4, 8, or 10. On rare occasion, you could even be ahead (UTG having 88, and the BB having A7s, for instance.)

I'm guessing on average you have 5 effective outs, plus another 5-10% or so chance you are ahead. Given the pot size, this is plenty.

The risk of the BB raising is there, but it's not that high, considering that he appears to have been dragged into this pot kicking and screaming.