60-120 Hand

[David Sklansky]

I raised UTG with KK. Good tight player to my left reraised. Tight button called. I called. Flop Q42. I bet and got raised. Button folded. I called. Turn blank. Check call. River jack. I bet and got called.

[Coilean]

I think you can make pretty good cases for both reraising or smoothcalling preflop, so I won't go into that.

I think going limp with KK on the flop/turn is perfectly reasonable given the kind of scary Q on the flop, especially since you should scare him off many weaker hands (notably, smaller pocket pairs or AK) if you play back at him, or just lose more money if he has you beat with AA/QQ.

But why bet the river, especially with the jack hitting one of the more likely hands you could beat? I wouldn't think your opponent is more likely to have AQ/TT (and call with it) than AA/QQ/JJ, which should leave you getting raised by a better hand more often than called by a worse one, a losing proposition even if you consider it safe to make the precision fold when raised. AQo seems your best hope for a call on the river, but why would you think he is more likely to have that than AA/QQ/JJ, particularly given that he is a tight good player and he reraised a UTG world class expert before the flop?

"good tight player". How do U think that your opponent classifies U? In particular,what do U think that your opponent thinks your range of UTG raising hands are??
How your opponent plays against U pre-flop and on the flop will be consistent with the answers to the questions above.
Happy pokering,
Sitting Bull

[mike l.]

i like everything but the river. if he raises you with AQ or the other KK on the river and you fold then you lose a ton of bets. unlikely but not a worthwhile risk since he probably wont check behind with AQ.

you also need to consider that he may still put you on AK or a smaller pair on the river and decide to bet or bluff with a hand on the river that he would fold to your stop and go bet (a bet that to some skilled players signifies a very strong hand).

i prefer a check-call on the river here given this board and scenario. it will give your future checks on expensive streets a lot of impact against attentive players.

[Billy LTL]

The tradeoff of not making it four bets preflop is some camouflage for your hand.

Betting out on the flop and then only calling the raise is fine, normal and adds some deception.

By check-calling the turn he's got to be thinking you're holding AK, AQ, JJ, tens or nines. A checkraise could very well win it for you right now but a reraise from him here would not be desirable. Use the saved turn raise for the river. Which you did.

Good bet here. No way he has pocket QQ so there's very little danger of a raise. There is a danger of check-check so your bet was fine. I'm thinking he had AQ.

Billy (LTL)

I don't see this hand as so unusual....I can't help but wonder if you're looking for input or trying to make a point(or both). My best guess is that you're trying to make a point, so I'll bite. My tendency after playing the flop and turn in this manner would be to check and call on the river, but I still have a lot to learn and I'm usually pretty lazy about the math but....if your opponent will three-bet you with A-Q as well as the other usual suspects then he is 12-9 to have A-Q rather than AA or QQ(JJ seems very unlikely at this point) and if he raises you on the river you can pretty safely muck(he has to suspect the possibility that you have JJ[or maybe QJs?] and can't too safely raise w/ anything but QQ). So I like the bet, he could check AQ against YOU on the river knowing that the only hand that you can call with that he can beat is some sort of KQ, all other hands you win(tie) or don't call. I hope you won the pot.

Mike

[adios]

It seems that the most controversial play is betting the river. Q,J are scary cards for AA. Is it better to check and call; bet; or check and fold. Check and fold doesn't seem like a good choice IMO. So is it better to check and call or bet. IMO in this situation your opponent is likely to call with more hands than he'll bet with so betting is better.

[mikelow]

Interesting stop and go hand. But, why no check-raise on the turn?

I think you were playing deceptively for future considerations.

The only hands your opponent can have if he played this way and couldn't beat K,K is T,T with an outside chance of A,Ks. He put you on A,K and played it that way including his call on the river. 3 betting preflop with A,K is o.k. With T,T it is questionable to 3 bet and unlikely from a tight player. But it is o.k. Also calling the river is highly questionable but reasonable with both hands. So your classificaton of this players playing skills seem o.k at first look. Since you are David Sklansky in early position a very good tight player would not 3 bet with a hand like A,Qs so we should rule that out. If he did then you misread his skill level.

Your play is more interesting. If you are not going to bet or raise the turn then why not reraise the flop? I believe that you let your evaluation of this players skill frighten you into proceeding over cautiously. I do not understand why you would not check raise the turn. There are six bets in the pot at this point, Big enough to win right there if your oppopnent decides to fold an A,K or 2 tens. If he does have A,Q then he calls here and the river. If he has A,A he may just call the turn and river bets thinking you may well have a set of Queens. There is no way this type of opponent riases the flop with a set of queens when the first player in is betting with only one player behind him so you can disregard that hand. I believe that the way you played the hand is o.k. but I would take a more aggressive position on the turn or flop.

Vince

[Gabe]

On the river, you should either check and fold or bet. I think there is enough money in there to bet.

[mike l.]

"IMO in this situation your opponent is likely to call with more hands than he'll bet with so betting is better."

really like what?

could you provide a breakdown of hands he will call with that he wont bet? i believe you are mistaken.

[adios]

Just an opinion, KQs some players AQ.

[adios]

Turn about is fair play /forums/images/icons/grin.gif can you provide a list of hands that he'll bet but won't call with? I believe you are mistaken. A check and call is right if DS's opponent will bet with more hands than he'll call with (assuming a check and fold is wrong).

[mike l.]

first you need to factor in the idea that if hero bets here he may be raised by AQ, the other KK, or even (unlikely) a worse hand looking to drive hero off the pot on a scary board. but due to the chance of QQ, JJ, and AA it looks like hero would need to fold to a raise on the river. so his bet has that going against it.

as for your precise question (and notice that you still have not answered mine) i think preflop 3 bettor could bet AQ, KQ, AJ (unlikly hand, but you never know), and some complete bluffs that missed (this could include many many hands). those bluffs would be betting the river in hopes that hero was hanging on with AK or some sort of foldable pair.

last but not least preflop 3 bettor will not fold any better hands on the river and will only call with a few hands that are worse. he will call with NO worse hands except AQ and KQ if he understands that the stop and go turn/river play is a play that usually signifies a hand of considerable strength and rarely a bluff.

but wait there's more: if i had a more detailed understanding of the player hero was against then i could go through and ignore some silly hands and drastically narrow the field of hands he might have. for instance if we decide that this 3 bettor is genuinely TIGHT then we can maybe take him off 99 or lower and KQ and he might check behind with JJ on the turn. that leaves us with TT, JJ, QQ, AQs (AQo unlikely), AK, AA, and the other KK. so all 3 bettor can call (or raise) with on the river that's beaten is AQs, an unlikely call by AK, and a very unlikely call by TT.

hero's river bet here is awful.

[mike l.]

if 3 bettor has read poker gaming and life by DS he'll know that oz sometimes check-calls the turn but then check-folds the river when his heads-up opponent fires the last round. that's one more reason in favor of a river check-call here.

It took me a bit, but I think I understand where David is coming from.

The key to this hand is the raise on the flop. The player is probing for information and/or trying to win the pot right there. This is not a value raise. He is not raising because he thinks he has a lock. If the player held either AA or QQ he would not raised here. The key is this situation is the harmless nature of the flop and the third player. If the player held AA or QQ he would have simply called the flop bet, because there are no draws to worry about. He would not try to eliminate the third player and he would rather raise on the turn to squeeze out the extra money.

Thus on the end the only other hands that can beat our hero are JJ or QJ. According to David's descrption of the player Qj is not possible. Since there is only one possible hand that could beat KK and several that he can beat he should bet on the end.

Also the chances are not good that the player with bet into him again. I believe he played the head this way because he put David on AK. If he made this play with a pair or AKs, he is not likely to bet because David will call with hands that beat his more often than not. (i.e. QQ, KK or AA.)