Rose-Bowl insights - Help!?!

Like any sports better, I fancy myself as having an uncanny ability to understand football matchups and predict winners.


But Nebraska-Miami has me stumped.


At first, my thinking was take Nebraska at any probable spread. Then, I began to think take Nebraska at, like 10 1/2, in anticipation of the spread narrowing drastically. Then, I started thinking take Miami for 9, but I can't remember why.


There is no question that, since the early '90's, Nebraska's defense has been designed specifically to disrupt the kind of offense Miami runs - at the expense of performing poorly against teams like Colorado and Missouri.


And there is also no question that Miami's defense hasn't been tested against anything like the scheme, discipline, and conditioning the Nebraska offense will bring.


But then, I am worried about the coaching - if not the talent - of the Nebraska secondary. And it seems like George Darlington may have evolved his methodology in years and in matchups when Nebraska could count on more defensive domination at the line of scrimmage.


And I also remember how well Texas ran down the option in their first Nebraska matchup two years ago. I am worried Miami has the speed to do the same thing, and force Nebraska out of the pitch/cut, and into Stuntz/Newcombe/reverse-type scenarios which won't set up the fullback trap late in the game. Though that type of analysis starts to put me in a little over my head:)


Will Dorsey have the time to find his receivers on deep balls, will their tight end disrupt the coverage?


Will Nebraska average 3.1 or 5.7 yards per carry?


Will it even be high-scoring or low-scoring, I cannot tell.


Can somebody who knows more about football than me please answer these questions!?


Thanks,


eLROY

My thought is this. The teams that were crushed by Miami are now covering the spread. Coincidence?


Mojay

I gave some thoughts on this awhile back. To summarize I have come to the conclusion you should either bet Miami and lay the wood or take Nebraska on the money line. I don't think a close game favors Miami to win while Nebraska could get into big trouble if they fall behind much and are forced to pass. The key will all be in the turnovers. Miami has lived a charmed life at times this year, almost completely because of turnovers. Further they got the advantage of missing Green for BC and having VT lose Suggs early on. These two guys could have been huge factors because Miami's defense is a bit smallish and was run on pretty bad by some teams. Besides its like mirrors sometimes, Miami wasn't that dominant on the yardage side of things in many of their games, even losing the battle against FSU but easily winning the war on the scoreboard. For all the hype about a 58 point win against Washington, they only carried a 100 yard edge. Granted teams with a big lead give up some garbage yards, but winning by their margins should have yielded more impressive yardage advantage. What they did best was create and then capitalize on turnovers (a staggering +26 ratio). They did it early and buried other teams with it and forced it into playing their game on defense which is bringing quick blitzers in and counting on their speedy corners to stick with receivers just long enough. Here they play a team that is completely incompatible with that. Huskers were fairly careful with the ball averaging about 2 turnovers a game. They ran the ball very effectively at 5.6 ypc even with a ton of attempts (how many teams can say they had two games with more than 70 rushes???). Even more troublesome is that this isn't the option type game that Miami's speedy corners and linebackers could handle well. Nebraska tends to run a lot of up the gut dives and off-tackle runs. They don't do a lot of wide options because Crouch's escapability and strength fits better just having him do more draws and off-tackle runs himself. Knowing he can't run wide on Miami much, Solich is sure to keep it straightforward and play old-school Nebraska football which is much like Lombardi's run it over and over until they prove they can stop it. And to mix it up they will go with a very effective passing game one that had a better yards per pass and could hit some big plays if they go with a play action since Miami's secondary and cover LBs will almost certainly have to cheat to overcome the size (Huskers OL has 4 300+lb starters) disadvantage.


I think the numbers and the matchup clearly say Nebraska, but I am a bit leery of the nature of this game. While I don't expect Nebraska to give up easy scores like Miami got all year and like CU took advantage of, its a definite possibility. Nebraska is clearly not going to be in good shape coming from behind much more than a score. They have to run the ball and stay with it. They have the size they need to dominate the line of scrimmage against a decent but not great defense that got most of its big plays from its secondary. Remember Miami had Morgan and Lewis last year and those two guys are badly missed even if the 11-0 record doesn't show it. Having looked over this matchup and thinking about it for a long time, I still go with my original stand and say take the Huskers on the money line to pull the upset. I think the controversy helps them as it reduces the pressure and expectations, I think their big game experience over the last 10 years helps them, and most of all I think they just fundamentally matchup best against this Miami team than probably anyone in the country. They will be healthier than Miami and I don't think Miami's offense will be that effective if they aren't given short fields. Nebraska shut down a very similar offense from Oklahoma, a team that is built offensively on speed, a mostly short-ball passer, and a small shifty RB. They shut them down cold and could do that here provided the Canes are starting their drives on their end of the field. Indeed Miami is going to have to hit some big plays with their young, but big WRs. How those guys handle playing in the biggest game remains to be seen. I don't think Portis is going to find much room here, as the Huskers have enough size and quickness on the DL to not be dominated at the point of attack. Solich's main focus over the month has probably been how to confuse Dorsey for one and how to generate some pass rush to keep him from picking them apart like CU did. A tough task, but once again making them go 70 or 80 yards on a drive will make the difference.


There you go, I don't think I could have broken it down much more. And to all those that come onto this sight to harass people, especially me, I am still waiting for you all to provide half the insight on a game I just did!!!