O8: wimpy play with K-high flush

[BadBatsuMaru]

Once again I'd like to say if anybody could tell me how to get the convertor working with O8 hands I'd appreciate it.


Party Poker 0.5/1 O8 (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">8 players limp, SB folds, Hero checks.</font>

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font> 9.5 SB
<font color="#666666">Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 re-raises, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, hero caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.</font>

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> 14 BB
<font color="#666666">Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.</font>

River: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> 18 BB
<font color="#666666">Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks.</font>

Final Pot: 18 BB


Now, I'm not going to fold the 2nd-nut flush unless the board pairs and there's a lot of action, but I do tend to go into call-it-down mode easily. I'm thinking that when 9 people saw the flop I can pretty much guarantee the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif is out there, and there's about a 58% chance that the person with the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif has another spade. Is it safe to say there's about a 50% chance that the nut flush is out there whenever the board is 3-suited in a loose game? In this particular hand, when 7 spades are already accounted for (3 in my hand + 4 on the board), if someone is holding the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, there are only 5 left in the deck, which I think reduces the chances of someone holding the nut flush to 32.3%.

In general, though, how do you play the 2nd-nut flush? I would think the simple fact that 3 people are calling to the river would increase the chance that one of them is slowplaying you. UTG+1 is pretty much playing exactly the way I would expect the nut flush to play. I don't think I could bring myself to fold to a raise on the river in a 20-bet pot, so is it best to just check the river?

[TheShootah]

I dunno about you, but I would probably bet it again. Unless you are against tricky people, someone would have raised with the Ace High flush on the turn no? That is just my take in the situation. That sure is a good flop for your hand though!

[BradleyT]

Why would you check the river? They called the turn with no low possible so they have some sort of pieces and scraps of the board. You'll get paid off by straights/smaller flushes/sets here more often than you lose 2 bets by having to call a river raise.

[Moneyline]

I would continue betting. IMO people slowplay far less often in 08 than they do in other games. The nut flush probably would have raised on the turn had it been out. I would value bet the river in this situation.

As far as your more general question goes, I think the main considerations are 1) how many opponents are in the pot 2) how they play and 3) whether the ace is on the board.

Obviously, you can feel more comfortable about a king high flush being good heads-up than you can in a 9-way pot... which is not to say that the 2nd nuts is automatically a hand to be passive with or give up on in a multi-way pot.

Your reads should give you a good idea if your hand is good or not. Do any of your opponents in the pot frequently slowplay? Which ones always play their good hands fast? Are there any huge calling stations in the pot? Unless you're multi-tabling or this is your first hand at the table, you should have at least some idea what the answers to those questions are. If you know a certain player will slowplay the nuts (even when they are vulnerable) then checking from early position becomes a better option... but if you're playing against the type of players who will call down with a set of tens (or worse) thinking they have a good hand, then value betting should be the obvious play.

Finally, having the 2nd nut flush when the ace of that suit is on the board is a better situation than having the 2nd nuts with no ace on board. Many players will be eager to jump in the pot with a suited ace and not much else, but far fewer players will enter the pot with just a suited king.

[Alchemist]

I'll pretty much agree what everyone else has said so far. The fact that no one raised the turn leads me to think your K-high flush is good. Anyone holding the nut flush is also going to be worried about the board pairing and will want to jam to drive out any full house draws. Since the board didn't pair on the river I think you have to bet it out there as well.

I'd love to know what the other players had. I'm guessing top set and straight/wraps were out there but even then I sometimes give people too much credit for what they might be holding.

[TheShootah]

Yeah, I assumed the std. garden variety O8 calling station type, in which case your hand has to be good here.

[BadBatsuMaru]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to know what the other players had. I'm guessing top set and straight/wraps were out there but even then I sometimes give people too much credit for what they might be holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]
Hero checks.
UTG+1 checks.
UTG+2 checks.
MP1 checks.
Hero shows [ Qs, Ks, 5d, 9s ] a flush, king high.
UTG+1 doesn't show [ Tc, Th, 3h, 6d ] three of a kind, tens.
UTG+2 doesn't show [ Jc, 5h, 9d, Jh ] three of a kind, jacks.
MP1 doesn't show [ 8h, Qh, Td, Kh ] a straight, nine to king.
Hero wins $18 from the main pot with a flush, king high.
There was no qualifying low hand.
no check raising here
Game #1598082648 starts.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking that when 9 people saw the flop I can pretty much guarantee the A is out there,

[/ QUOTE ]

BadBatsuMaru - How good are your guarantees? I figure the odds are about seven to three that the ace is in the hands of one of your opponents.

You see 7 cards. 45 others are missing. Of these, 32 are in the hands of your opponents. That makes the probability of an opponent holding the ace of spades 32/45 or roughly 71%.

[ QUOTE ]
and there's about a 58% chance that the person with the A has another spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think not. I think 41% is closer. Here's the reasoning:

Here are the possibilities for a player with the ace of spades:
• AsSSS (also three other spades)
• AsSSN (also two other spades)
• AsSNN (also one other spades)
• AsNNN (also no other spades)
If one of your eight opponents does have the ace of spades, there are seven missing spades and 37 missing other cards.
Update:
• AsSSS 35 possibilities
• AsSSN 777 possibilities
• AsSNN 4662 possibilities
• AsNNN 7770 possibilities
total 13244
check: 44*43*42/6 = 13244

35+777+4662 = 5474
5474/13244 = 0.4133

(or simply 1-7770/13244 = 0.4133)

[ QUOTE ]
Is it safe to say there's about a 50% chance that the nut flush is out there whenever the board is 3-suited in a loose game?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say closer to 29%.

Here's the math.

0.7111*0.4133 = 0.2939

Assuming none of your opponents would fold the ace of spades plus at least one more spade, it's 7061/2939, or better than two to one that you're not up against the nut flush. If you only had two cards in the flush suit, the odds would be closer to two to one against being up against the nut flush. And that's assuming none of your opponents would fold it (which isn't actually the case).

[ QUOTE ]
In general, though, how do you play the 2nd-nut flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say. I think you played it close to perfect, except I would have bet on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I would think the simple fact that 3 people are calling to the river would increase the chance that one of them is slowplaying you.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a possibility. Other possibilities are your opponents are playing sets or two pairs, or are chasing with non-nut flushes that are lower than yours. But, yes, I agree the more opponents who are still in the pot, the scarier it looks.

All the same, I'd bet on the river.

Just my opinion.

Buzz