Value bet this river?

[PoBoy321]

Interpoker $.50/1 NL

No read on the villain, I'm kind of in the middle of a rush right now.

I'm dealth A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif UTG.

I limp, 4 limpers behind me, SB folds and BB checks. 5 to the flop for $5.50

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets $1. I raise to $5. Folded back to BB who calls.

Turn is 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ($16.50)

BB checks, I bet $10, BB calls.

River is A /images/graemlins/spade.gif ($36.50)

I debate wheter or not to value bet this. I figure that a hand like A8 or less would probably fold to a bet here, and a hand like A9 or AT (which seem unlikely given the action) don't have any more kicker problems, and anything else has me outkicked. 9T wouldn't call since their hand just got counterfeited and a busted flush draw wouldn't call. So I'm in one of those "I'll only get called by a hand that beats me" type of situation.

Villain only has $30 left behind and I have him covered. Thoughts?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure that a hand like A8 or less would probably fold to a bet here,

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

if A8 has gottne to the river, A8 would call a river bet. ya dig?

[PoBoy321]

It was something about his play up to that point that made me feel like his hand was weak and he was ready to abandon it on the river. It was something about his minbet, call the raise on the flop, check/call the turn that made me feel like he had a very weak hand. I don't know why, but I just had a feeling that he was going to dump a hand that I beat.

[Kaz The Original]

So, he calls the flop and turn with top pair bad kicker, but then, when he hits trips, decide to ditch?

No comprende.

[PoBoy321]

*What I said at first makes no sense*

EDIT: Basically to put it succinctly, my feeling was that up to this point, he was either drawing or he had a better hand. If he had a better hand, I'm throwing money away unless he had 9T and the A just counterfeited his hand. If he was on a draw, he folds, if he had a worse A, he probably would have folded before the river, so I'm either betting into someone who missed a draw or has a better hand, so the missed draws fold and the better hands call.

Does that make sense?

[imported_stealthcow]

dude

bet this

he doesn't have AK and i think you would've heard from a full already.

stealthcow-

[PoBoy321]

OK, I know that you're usually supposed to wait a while before posting the results, but I realize that this thread makes me seem like an idiot and I wanna try to save face, so here's what happened.

On the river, I bet 1/2 the pot and he folded. At the time it seemed like it was just an automatic thing to do. TPGK which rivered top trips. After the hand, my thinking was "if he had called, what would he have called with?" And the only answers I could think of would be better hands. Like I said, a worse A probably would have been out of there on the flop, and of course missed draws aren't going to call on the end, so really all I'm doing is folding out hands which have no chance of winning at the showdown anyway, so in the long run, betting on the end doesn't earn me any money, but could potentially lose me money as I would only be called by better hands. Does this make sense?

[Kaz The Original]

Yes. checking to induce bluffs from drawing hands.

[PoBoy321]

Oh, maybe this was unclear in the original post. I was UTG and villain was the BB, so I acted last. I couldn't induce a bluff from a missed draw unless he decided to bluff at a missed draw out of position. So the question isn't whether or not to check in order to induce a bluff, but whether or not to check behind the villain on the river.