Jackpot Jay hand.

[lorinda]

Well, let's see what you guys think.

JJ is running bad, he's playing fine though and has analysed his play.
His confidence is low, so he's dropped down to $5.50 sng sats with two seats.
Here's an example of one of his bad beats (The only hand he posts this week)

On the third hand, in late position, I looked down and saw ...

9-9.

I raised the blinds (which were $10-20) and a caller or two to $80. Got three callers

The flop came ...

10-9-4, rainbow.

Somebody bet $50, and I raised to $200. (In an earlier life, back on Level 3, for example, I might have considered slow-playing this hand, despite the straight draws that might be out there -- perhaps a good example of why I've been on such a bad streak.)

Everybody folded to the original bettor, who made it $400. I went all-in for my last $1,280 and he called and turned over (or, to be more precise, the computer turned over for him) ...


What else?

10-10.

Well, hey, sometimes you've just got to laugh.

[The Yugoslavian]

I read this this morning and while the blinds/structure/level of play plays a role here, I think just from this hand that there is a clear indication his game is still as lacking as it was earlier last year. I think his biggest problem is that he plays all kinds of hold 'em poker but seems incapable of adjusting correctly and/or realizing that he's almost *surely* tilting 90% of the time by now. He still seems to have *no* grasp on what the real variance is in poker. And, he has had *no* indication at any point during his career that he can successfully beat *any* level of poker.

Also, would it hurt him to inject why he makes the plays he does? He's commented in the past on his 'reads' but seems to be unconcerned with much more important contextual factors, IMO.

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

I didn't read any of his columns lately, so for all I know he could be horrible now, but in a $5.50 sat I think folding middle set is a pretty big leak up to and including ~27 bets.

[Pokerscott]

The $400 raise indicates a big hand that wants a call or raise imo. The big hand could be 44 TT JJ QQ KK AA AT. I would eliminate KK and AA since I bet they raise it up a bit pre flop (and maybe even eliminate QQ). AT is a little thin to be playing that way against the preflop raiser, so I think you are looking at 44 TT JJ QQ. You beat 3 out of 4, but you might want to just call the $400 and see how it goes.

In all honesty though, you are not getting away from this hand so it really doesn't matter. You don't even have flush scare cards that can come up and slow down the TT. Maybe a straight scare card keeps him from taking all your chips if you call? Possible but not likely...

Pokerscott

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read any of his columns lately, so for all I know he could be horrible now, but in a $5.50 sat I think folding middle set is a pretty big leak up to and including ~27 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more interesting question is should Jackpot Jay be raising pre-flop with his hand?

Especially since earlier in his column he talks about his inability (and/or trying to improve upon) to lay down hands post-flop that he felt were good pre-flop. I could easily see him leaking off a substantial amount of his chips here post-flop after raising merely due to the 'gun slingers' mentality he has where if he's the aggressor he feels compelled to keep going. At least if he limps he can hopefully convince himself that he's playing for set value.

Yugoslav

[Geo]

2 callers and he only raises to 80, what does he want out of this hand. If someone is willing to put 20 chips in they will definatly put another 60 in, either raise alot more or just call for set value.

As for the flop if you can get all your chips in the middle with a caller you should be happy.

He lost, [censored] happens move on to the next S n g.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
The more interesting question is should Jackpot Jay be raising pre-flop with his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, I totally missed that.

Uhh, yeah, that's pretty dumb.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read any of his columns lately, so for all I know he could be horrible now, but in a $5.50 sat I think folding middle set is a pretty big leak up to and including ~27 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more interesting question is should Jackpot Jay be raising pre-flop with his hand?

Especially since earlier in his column he talks about his inability (and/or trying to improve upon) to lay down hands post-flop that he felt were good pre-flop. I could easily see him leaking off a substantial amount of his chips here post-flop after raising merely due to the 'gun slingers' mentality he has where if he's the aggressor he feels compelled to keep going. At least if he limps he can hopefully convince himself that he's playing for set value.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

LET'S ALL GIVE A BIG HAND TO DAVID SCHWIMMER!