Going to Vegas

[cyorg]

I'll be making my first trip to Vegas in two weeks with some friends. I usually play poker, but have been wanting to try out roulette. Is there any way to actually win at it? Or should I just stay out of that game all together. Thanks for any input.

[stoxtrader]

I dont think there are any positive expectation bets anywhere in the casino aside from counting cards well at blackjack, playing very good poker.

aside from any outlandish jackpots anyway.

An even money bet is odds at craps (for which you must first make a -EV bet).

[Phishy McFish]

What's with the Black/Red/Green dreams of ignorance lately all over this forum??

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
What's with the Black/Red/Green dreams of ignorance lately all over this forum??

[/ QUOTE ]

people got bored of asking about the Party Poker jackpot (or finally realized it's still -EV to play, discounting the fact that it may have fishier competition) and are looking for an excuse to play a game with the chance to get rich quick.

[gazarsgo]

[quote(or finally realized it's still -EV to play, discounting the fact that it may have fishier competition)

[/ QUOTE ]

A friend and I did the math and found that the BBJ does not have to get very large before it becomes +EV, regardless of the competition involved. But nobody wanted to double check our math except some guy who cut and pasted from bonuswhores...
size of BBJ for positive EV (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=1535388 &Forum=,,All_Forums,,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25 &Main=1535388&Search=true&where=&Name=11321&datera nge=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bod yprev=#Post1535388)

[cyorg]

I'm not trying to get rich quick. I just don't want do sit at a poker table for two days and never try anything else. Maybe I should have asked if there is a way to play the game without losing ALL of my money.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way to actually win at it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get lucky over a short session. Seriously. The longer you play, the more likely you are to lose (and the more $ you are likely to lose).

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I should have asked if there is a way to play the game without losing ALL of my money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make small bets, and don't play for a long time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

IMO, if you're looking for some excitement, craps is more bang for your buck.

[Siegmund]

Any money you care about, keep it in your pocket. The table games are all tilted against you - craps only slightly, roulette quite heavily (5%), things like pai gow played correctly or blackjack (without bet-size adjustments, from the top of the shoe) in between.

There are video poker machines which are marginally +EV *if* you play the correct strategy for them -- if you want to try them out, read up on this BEFORE you go! Be warned that the variance/EV ratio is much worse than for poker (expected time until 95% sure of a profit can be hundreds of thousands or millions of deals).

Really comes down to, if you gamble in vegas, you are doing it for fun, not to make money.

[Phishy McFish]

If you want to have fun and have a chance to win some big bucks.....play craps.....it's the greatest "us vs. them" game in the place IMO. Stand in a casino for a while......the loudest yells you are going to hear are from a hot craps table.....because 80% or more of the people on it have the same bets more or less (the pass line and backing the pass line). When that hard 4 hits to make the 3rd point in a row.....get the cocktail and cigar chics over to that table because they are 'bout to get rowdy rowdy.

But there is no system to beat the casino (other than counting cards @ BJ or possibly a few pro handicappers).

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(or finally realized it's still -EV to play, discounting the fact that it may have fishier competition)

[/ QUOTE ]

A friend and I did the math and found that the BBJ does not have to get very large before it becomes +EV, regardless of the competition involved. But nobody wanted to double check our math except some guy who cut and pasted from bonuswhores...
size of BBJ for positive EV (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=1535388 &Forum=,,All_Forums,,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25 &Main=1535388&Search=true&where=&Name=11321&datera nge=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bod yprev=#Post1535388)

[/ QUOTE ]

That was an interesting calculation, but it misses a key point -- it assumes that you play all the hands pre-flop that would be eligible for a badbeat jackpot (for example, if you hold 7s4s and your opponent holds 8h 8d and the final board is 8c 8s 6s 5s x you only get the bad beat jackpot if you didn't fold pre-flop). The typical question about the jackpot is therefore "when is it +EV to play 74s", and then answer is when the jackpot is _a lot_ bigger than $150,000.

If you alone fold trash hands that have a prayer of making the BBJ, but your 9 opponents don't, then I could see your math being reasonable (though it would obviously lower the chances of the jackpot hitting slightly). I don't know if that's a reasonable assumption to make, because I don't play on the jackpot tables.