Flush draw (with pair) vs TP better Kicker?

[kurto]

I dont have this one formatted so Its a loose recollection.

$25NL PS
Villain: Big stack at the table. (~$70) He very quickly more then doubled his stack when (1) he had a few hands where he was called by idiots when he clearly had them beat and (2) he had a flush draw hit EVEN when he didn't have the odds to call it. So, I know that he will call on draws even if he shouldn't. Though he hasn't been at the table long, I don't give him credit for being good (because he calls on long shot draws), he'd been lucky enough to have decent hands coupled with fish ready to give away everything with weak hands...

HERO- I have ~$35.

Villain is in MP who limps in. Several limps to me on the button with A /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif... I limp.

Flop A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Checks to me who bets .75 (about 2/3 the pot). Folds around to villain who Reraises to $1.25....

My move?

I figure he's got an ace with a great kicker (AK, AQ). I have Ace, weak kicker and flush draw. I figured it was about a coinflip on the flop (I just checked cardplayer's hand calculate and see that I'm behind by about 3%. Though I thought a paired flush draw had about a 3% advantage?!?).

In reality I called.
TURN A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain bets ~$3
Fold? Call?

I was stupid/stubborn and called.
Flop was another unsuited rag. He bet another $3... I called more out of curiousity then anything else.

He had AJ. (I quickly took the note that he would 'go to town' with TP Jack Kicker) and moved on.

When I started posting this, I thought on the flop I had the advantage and wondered if others would play it harder then I did. Now that I see I'm at a disadvantage, I'm wondering if I should have just folded the turn?

[xorbie]

I think you have the advantage if you have middle pair, flush draw, as opposed to same pair with the flush draw. Having the middle pair gives you the two extra set outs.

[kurto]

"I think you have the advantage if you have middle pair, flush draw, as opposed to same pair with the flush draw. Having the middle pair gives you the two extra set outs." That makes sense. I was thinking 'any pair' but that doesn't make a lot of sense since I gain no outs sharing the pair.

I guess my next question is... if I had middle pair instead of top pair... how hard to you push the 3% advantage? Do I push to the reraise? Just call? And if I called (as I did), when I miss the turn, I know I become a big dog... and then I should walk.

I understand the pros make their living by pushing small edges... but I wonder if pushing your whole stack (when you're covered) with a 3% advantage is too small?

(I know this is results orientated, but I ended up losing ~$7 or so on this hand being passive where I would have lost $35 if I pushed... and I'm fairly certain the guy wouldn't have folded since I noted he's made many calls when he shouldn't before.)

[tbach24]

I think that you played this hand fine. What was the river?

Edit- I may push the turn.

[mythrilfox]

The big edge in a hand like this comes from having folding equity + a decent chance to win if seen up. Here, it doesn't sound like you have much folding equity. A push on the flop sounds like it will be called, so you might as well call down to see if you hit your draw.

You might also consider re-raising the flop for a free card on the turn. But then once you check behind he's going to know what's up and will squeeze in a value bet on the river. From the size of his bet you can gauge whether or not he was on a draw like you or whether or not your hand is good, but unimproved I am most likely folding.

[KissDeezNuts]

If he's willing to call with anything, then you played it fine seeing that if you caught your flush you could have made it pay off with a decent bet or raise on the river. Folding top pair is tough but if you don't improve to at least two pair by the river, ya got to let it go.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my next question is... if I had middle pair instead of top pair... how hard to you push the 3% advantage? Do I push to the reraise? Just call? And if I called (as I did), when I miss the turn, I know I become a big dog... and then I should walk.

I understand the pros make their living by pushing small edges... but I wonder if pushing your whole stack (when you're covered) with a 3% advantage is too small?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all very player dependent. The people I play with, I generally feel like I can read them well enough to avoid getting all my money in with this small an edge.

However, you do have a lot of folding equity with an all in, and so the push should certainly be a +EV. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean it's your move with the greatest EV. A big bet reraise here on the river might get him to fold more. If he does call and you miss on the turn, you might even have bought yourself the river for free.

So the question is really whether or not you feel you will get payed off on your flush draw, or your trips (two pair will almost always get paid off fairly well, because it's well disguised).

[kurto]

Thank you all. You've given me some good stuff to think about.

I understand the fold equity concept... I just wonder how useful it is at these small stacks. Half the players are calling stations and aren't folding if they have nothing but a pair of pocket 2s.

Still... I'm letting this bounce around in my head and look for situations where I can apply it.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you all. You've given me some good stuff to think about.

I understand the fold equity concept... I just wonder how useful it is at these small stacks. Half the players are calling stations and aren't folding if they have nothing but a pair of pocket 2s.

Still... I'm letting this bounce around in my head and look for situations where I can apply it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what if they don't fold. If you know for a fact you are up in a hand 53-47, and your confident you won't tilt if you lose, why not have them call with a bad hand?

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think there is a big advantage to not pushing a very small edge when your stack is over the max buy-in and there is another big stacked fish. Wait for a better spot. Don't risk your big stack. So, I would play it the same way, but fold the river. Besides, maybe he got lucky again and flopped a set, then you are big dog.

[ryanghall]

I'm probably making a decent sized reraise.

If his hand isn't good, he folds.

If his hand is OK, he calls and you get a free card.

If his hand is good, he'll likely push and you'll probably have to call... but by then you'll have the correct odds to do that anyways.

Ryan

PS I think a push here would make it fairly obvious you're on some sort of draw.