Stupid Pot Odds Question

[etgryphon]

Alright fellas or gals,

I know this is a stupid question, but I need to clear it up in my head. When calculating pot odds do you include the money you put in into the amount that you profit if you win?

Example:

Flop: Pot = 10, You have 100 left, He has 60 left.
He bets 30, You will win 40% of the time.

Would it be correct to to move him allin because:

eq[1]: .40(10 + 30(his bet) + 60(your raise) + 30(his call)) + .60(-60(your raise)) = 16 EV

or is it..

eq[2]: .40( 70(profit) ) + .6(-60) = -8 EV

I always though it was equation 2..You only factor in the PROFIT you would make.

-Gryph

[elitegimp]

my line of thinking: if you put in 60 bets, the pot will at 130. You will win 40% of the time, so you expect to win 40% of 130, or 52 bets. Paying 60 bets to win 52 is not good, so I would fold.

this lines up with what you have for Equation 2. In equation 1, the second term should be 1.00(-60 (your raise)) because you are considering money in the pot as dead money. Therefore you lose 60 every time, but when you do win you win 130, not 70. (i.e. even when you win a $130 pot, you've still paid $60 into it... you don't win $130 and get your $60 bet back)

[Siegmund]

Pot odds are for call-vs-fold decisions. Right now there is 40 in the pot and it will cost you 30 to call. You need a 43% chance of winning to want to call: calling is wrong. Do you fold or raise?

What will happen if you raise him back? With his 60% chance of winning, he will surely call however much you put in, and you'll have a 40% chance of winning the new larger pot.

So, your choices are:

Quit now
Invest 30, get a 40% of 70 = 28 pot equity = -2 EV
Invest 30<N<90, get 40% of 2N+10 = 0.8N+4 pot equity = lose an extra 20 cents on every dollar past 30 you put in.

Fold!