Calling for most of your chips on the bubble

[gh9801]

Here is a common, theoretical situation. I have trouble making these types of decisions:

20+2 SNG on PP
blinds 150/300

Pot 450

UTG 4000
button 800
SB (Hero) 1050 (after posting)
BB 1700 (after posting)

All folds to tight button who moves allin.
Hero wakes up with a hand like 88 or some other mid-low pocket pair.

What should Hero do? The shortstacked button most likely has overs, but possibly any two cards or overpockets. At this point does Hero want to gamble? Let's assume that we believe BB will fold 99% of the time.

If Hero gambles and loses, Hero is crippled with 400.
If Hero gambles and wins, of course Hero is happy
If Hero folds, Hero is now shortstack.

And how good is a hand like K9 or A6 in this situation? When is it time to gamble? Is it better to just give up any nonpremium hand to the allin and try to steal blinds in the next two hands?

[Shanemex]

My recent experiences have lead me to believe that I am terrible at bubble play but I think I would fold anything worse than AK or AA-JJ here, because the BB won't fold 99% of the time.

[tdarko]

this i guess depends on how willing you are to get in there and gamble, personally im consistant enough with sng's (working on improving ring game play as of the moment) to try to gamble it up and be hyper-aggressive on the bubble because i am trying to win it and not "just" get in the money. of course this is tough because you aren't the aggressor, but then again do you want your money in with a mid pocket pair or a high card which is likely going to be the case if you fold.
IMO there is merit in either choice, personally i like to get in there and mix it up and try to give me some chips for later in the tourney.

[AA suited]

call with any pair/a8s+/ato+. thats only like 25 hands you're calling with. fold everything else since u only had 1/2BB invested and let the bb deal with it.

if u were the bb (and sb folds), then u have more invested and should call w/a wider range of hands like any pair/axs/a8o+/kts+. do not call w/king offsuit.

[sofere]

With the blinds that huge this is an easy overpush. If blinds were 100/200 it would be different, but as it stands you only have 3.5xbb after posting and don't have much time left to double up.