These STEP tourneys sound like a bad idea for most players

[Bigwig]

Correct me if any of my assumptions are wrong, as I don't play at Party.

But, to cash in a STEP, you have to place in the 5th level, correct? In order to do so, you must beat the players at that level. These include players like Gigabet, who buy directly into Level 5. So, why would you want to bascially pay the $1000 entry fee (by winning other SNG levels), to play against competition that is clearly better?

If I won a $10,000 seat for a deep stack one table live SNG with Phil Ivey, John Juanda, Howard Lederer, etc., I'd gladly sell the thing to someone for a reasonable price (what that is, I'm not sure). Because $9,000--or whatever--is very good for my bankroll, which is considerably less than $9,000. And I'd use the cash to attack levels I can compete with ($30/$50).

Anyone with me here?

[JoeTable]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if any of my assumptions are wrong, as I don't play at Party.

But, to cash in a STEP, you have to place in the 5th level, correct? In order to do so, you must beat the players at that level. These include players like Gigabet, who buy directly into Level 5. So, why would you want to bascially pay the $1000 entry fee (by winning other SNG levels), to play against competition that is clearly better?

If I won a $10,000 seat for a deep stack one table live SNG with Phil Ivey, John Juanda, Howard Lederer, etc., I'd gladly sell the thing to someone for a reasonable price (what that is, I'm not sure). Because $9,000--or whatever--is very good for my bankroll, which is considerably less than $9,000. And I'd use the cash to attack levels I can compete with ($30/$50).

Anyone with me here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it's very very very difficult to sell a step 5. Basically, you've get to let the buyer use your account.

[Runner Runner]

This has been discussed in earlier threads. Although you are correct that it would be -EV to buy directly into a Step 5 for all but the best players, there can be significant EV if you make your way through the Steps. This is because of the bad play in the earlier steps which allows you to obtain a Step 5 buyin at an average amount which is lower then $1000, (some say that if you play well going through the earlier Steps, you could get a seat for an average of half price). If this is the case then you can be a dog in the Step 5 and still make a profit over the long run because of the EV gained in the earlier steps.

The long run can take awhile to reach though and the competition in these Step tournaments should get better over time.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if any of my assumptions are wrong, as I don't play at Party.

But, to cash in a STEP, you have to place in the 5th level, correct? In order to do so, you must beat the players at that level. These include players like Gigabet, who buy directly into Level 5. So, why would you want to bascially pay the $1000 entry fee (by winning other SNG levels), to play against competition that is clearly better?

If I won a $10,000 seat for a deep stack one table live SNG with Phil Ivey, John Juanda, Howard Lederer, etc., I'd gladly sell the thing to someone for a reasonable price (what that is, I'm not sure). Because $9,000--or whatever--is very good for my bankroll, which is considerably less than $9,000. And I'd use the cash to attack levels I can compete with ($30/$50).

Anyone with me here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it's very very very difficult to sell a step 5. Basically, you've get to let the buyer use your account.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so why play them at all?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
This has been discussed in earlier threads. Although you are correct that it would be -EV to buy directly into a Step 5 for all but the best players, there can be significant EV if you make your way through the Steps. This is because of the bad play in the earlier steps which allows you to obtain a Step 5 buyin at an average amount which is lower then $1000, (some say that if you play well going through the earlier Steps, you could get a seat for an average of half price). If this is the case then you can be a dog in the Step 5 and still make a profit over the long run because of the EV gained in the earlier steps.

The long run can take awhile to reach though and the competition in these Step tournaments should get better over time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that certainly makes sense.

But, why not just play some MTT at the same level as your chosen step buy-in, and go all the way with players at a level you can beat?

[microbet]

I don't play the steps, but I think the answer to that is 'time'.

[El Maximo]

The EV of the steps has been discussed alot on these boards. Has anyone logged significant amounts of Step 1s yet. Id be interested in hearing some ROI% of a 100 or more step 1 entries.

[curtains]

Maybe the people playing the steps dont actually beleive the guys playing the 1k steps are that good? This is just a chance for them to compete in those events without exposing their bankroll so much.

[Scuba Chuck]

Two thoughts, it seems to me buying in STEP 4 is the "best buy." Any thoughts?

Second, if you choose to fight your way up from STEP 1, It's probably very high ROI to just finish in 4th.

I am intending to start playing a few steps this coming month. Starting to play from STEP 1. Frankly, I have not done well so far. In 12 tries, I've only finished in the top 2, 3 times. The remaining 9 times I came in 3rd or 4th. The fact that the bubble moves to 3 players vs 4, makes this step a little more challenging IMO. It is this fact, that leads me to believe that these games look a little more maniacal than the $10+1s. But what do I know, I don't even know a +$EV play when I see one.

Anyway, this is my strategy. I intend to build up 4 STEP 5 entries. Then assault the 4 STEP 5s in short order. I don't think I'd like to build up to one, to just start all the way over and do it again. I'm hoping it doesn't cost me more than 50 buyins at the $12s to get there.

Finally, I'm not sure what is the best way to track these things. I'm sure I'll come up with something clever. Does anyone have some ideas? (There are just so many outcomes)

[Irieguy]

How you do in steps 1 and 2 is of very little consequence in the Step grand scheme.

What the steps present is an opportunity to play a flat-payout structure SNG against people who are used to playing a percentage-payout structure SNG. The correct strategy for the two are as different as can be. Only 1 player on this forum has posted anything resembling correct flat-payout structure strategy (it wasn't me)... so it's clear that this is far from common knowledge.

Anyways, because of this, you can show a tremendous ROI at the step 3's and 4's. 200%-300% for sure. What that gives the skilled player is an opportunity to play a $1065 step 5 for only $300-$400 on average. Even if you are a little negative EV against the step 5 sharks, some table selection can still net you a good profit. Also, many of the players in the step 5 will be step 1 qualifiers, and these monkeys have no chance whatsoever. The typical step 5 is still softer than a typical $215, because you don't find any $11 players in the $215s.

Irieguy

[AtticusFinch]

From a stricly cash perspective you're probably right. But you forget that a chance at an opportunity to play with the big boys for a total investment of $12 is fun, for the same reason that buying a lottery ticket is fun. Sure its $EV is negative, but for $12, it's not such a bad deal.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyways, because of this, you can show a tremendous ROI at the step 3's and 4's. 200%-300% for sure. What that gives the skilled player is an opportunity to play a $1065 step 5 for only $300-$400 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious about this. Your assume you start at step 3, right? Sounds like that's a pretty good deal if you can achieve that. I mean $700 return for 4 hours with out multitabling. Even a negative -20% ROI at step 5 still leaves you tons of money since the great discount you get from early steps.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

What the steps present is an opportunity to play a flat-payout structure SNG against people who are used to playing a percentage-payout structure SNG. The correct strategy for the two are as different as can be. Only 1 player on this forum has posted anything resembling correct flat-payout structure strategy (it wasn't me)... so it's clear that this is far from common knowledge.


[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that the strategy is vastly different is plain. Exactly what adjustments should be made is not obvious, though. I've tried to elicit some insights here before, but got little response. Either very few folks have any clue, or those in the know are reluctant to have the strategy revealed to the rest of us just yet. I suspect that both are true, actually.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyways, because of this, you can show a tremendous ROI at the step 3's and 4's. 200%-300% for sure. What that gives the skilled player is an opportunity to play a $1065 step 5 for only $300-$400 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard some claim that the only real issue with the Steps is time, as it's relatively easy to advance, and the expected cost to get to step 5 for a decent player is far lower than the buyin, not matter which step you start at.

[JoeTable]

so that you can win $4500 on as little $12

[JoeTable]

Because some people are better at SnG's than they are at MTT's.

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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What the steps present is an opportunity to play a flat-payout structure SNG against people who are used to playing a percentage-payout structure SNG. The correct strategy for the two are as different as can be. Only 1 player on this forum has posted anything resembling correct flat-payout structure strategy (it wasn't me)... so it's clear that this is far from common knowledge.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The fact that the strategy is vastly different is plain. Exactly what adjustments should be made is not obvious, though. I've tried to elicit some insights here before, but got little response. Either very few folks have any clue, or those in the know are reluctant to have the strategy revealed to the rest of us just yet. I suspect that both are true, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

A simple way of explaining the adjustments in strategy required is as follows: Don't gamble.

You only want to finish in one of the spots that gets the next entry so survival is the most important consideration in your mind when you play your hands. With that being said, understand that this is the most important consideration for your thinking opponents as well.

[curtains]

You cant show a 200%-300% ROI at the step 3's and 4s!! Also don't expect to be able to play the 1k's for 300-400 on average, that's just impossible if you are starting at the Step 3's. Thats saying that in slightly more than one out of every two Step 3's you enter, you will qualify for a 1k, which is just not possible.
Maybe it can be done starting at Step 1s, but obviously no professional player who is almost intersted in buying into a 1k event is going to start at step 1s.

[ZeeJustin]

News flash: poker isnt profitable for most players.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
You cant show a 200%-300% ROI at the step 3's and 4s!! Also don't expect to be able to play the 1k's for 300-400 on average, that's just impossible if you are starting at the Step 3's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now, the gap in understanding about flat-payout structure SNGs is so large, that it's possible to advance at that rate. That will change eventually. But right now, players are playing the Step 3's far worse than the $5 players are playing regular SNGs. Far worse. There have been examples on this forum where players have gone broke on the bubble in a step with the short stack disconnected. That's like PartyPoker saying "you have 2 choices, we can either just give you first place prize money, or you can play a SNG and see what happens." As long as people would rather gamble than win, you can beat the step 3's and 4's for more than 200% ROI.

Irieguy

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ] Far worse. There have been examples on this forum where players have gone broke on the bubble in a step with the short stack disconnected.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Who could possibly be that stupid? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[curtains]

Im sorry but you cant have a 200% ROI at the Step 3's, its beyond absurd! At Step 4 it's even more ridiculous.

[curtains]

By the way just to show how ridiculous it is to claim a 200% ROI for the Step 4's. If you were a break even player at the Step 5's, and you won EVERY SINGLE Step 4 you played in, meaning you qualified for the Step 5 100% of the time. Your ROI in this case would be just 100%.
Yet you are somehow saying that people can do twice this well? I know you are a respected poster, and so I hope that either you are mistyping or that I'm misreading somehow, but the idea that you can have an ROI that high or even remotely close to it is extremely misleading.

[Irieguy]

I'm talking about the total ROI from a step 3 investment. This has been hashed out in previous posts, so I'm not going to get into it much but:

$200 investment step 3. Total advance rate >50%. Total advance rate >50% from step 4 = $500+ total equity in step 5. That's a 150% ROI from step 3 buy-in. An expert can do better, and will have a +ROI in step 5. So 200%+ ROI in the whole process is possible for some.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
The EV of the steps has been discussed alot on these boards. Has anyone logged significant amounts of Step 1s yet. Id be interested in hearing some ROI% of a 100 or more step 1 entries.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm 16 for 34 in the 2 tables. That's probably very close to my true ROI.

[gh9801]

Step tournaments are usually unrealistic and a waste of time for most people, but for those who want to dream they should go ahead and try it. I've tried two or three times, peaked at Step 3, and then get stuck in a loop. It's so much more profitable to just stay at 20+2 or whatever SNGs you usually play at.

[nrrd]

I agree that the Steps are "unrealistic" for novice players such as myself. However, I played one not with any idea of making money but rather just "for the heck of it". I got lucky and won $2500 with second place. I have no illusions that I am that good. I view it like spending $12 on a lottery ticket and getting lucky. Someone posted that the odds are about 500-1 against making it thru to the money. A true long shot which requires some luck.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Step tournaments are usually unrealistic and a waste of time for most people, but for those who want to dream they should go ahead and try it. I've tried two or three times, peaked at Step 3, and then get stuck in a loop. It's so much more profitable to just stay at 20+2 or whatever SNGs you usually play at.

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on how long you are in the loop. if you are buying in at 10+1, then $1200 for 4th place at step 5 is still HUGE ROI even if you had to loop thru the steps 15 times before reaching that final table. (this is assuming you are still on the orginal $10 buy in.)