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View Full Version : A Step 5 fold must people will hate


John Hurst
02-14-2005, 02:17 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1985)
MP (t860)
Button (t4005)
SB (t575)
Hero (t2575)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1985 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t2435

I know the Chip EV calculation will dictate a call, but there was more going on in this instance. Myself and UTG were the only players showing any aggression. The 2 small stacks were clearly hanging on for 4th. The most likely hands I put UTG on were:

1) Small pocket pair - 30%
2) 2 big cards - 50%
3) Complete bluff - 20%

I hated the thought of being crippled on a coin flip when I was in a great position to steal more chips in later hands. My main intent in these tournies is not to slide into 4th but to win the tournies. I honestly thought at the time that avoiding this allin and stealing blinds later was the best way to win. Afterwards, I felt weak tight and thus I post here for opinions.

Thanks in advance,
John

11t
02-14-2005, 02:21 PM
I dont think this is a bad fold.

AK is overrated.

jedi
02-14-2005, 02:23 PM
Given the situation, and the fact that you've recognized that small stacks are playing very, very tight, I don't think this is a bad fold.

Awesemo
02-14-2005, 02:26 PM
You're not really going to get a good time to steal like you say. The MP and SB in this hand are too shortstacked to bully around. I think this situation dictates a call.

The Yugoslavian
02-14-2005, 02:27 PM
Why do I hate this?

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I think it's fine.

You want to be first in here and have more than enough chips to put other stacks to big decisions. Plus, there are two stacks that are hanging on by a thread. You also don't want to have your stack crippled by calling off most of your chips without a significant advantage. For instance, tthe UTG villian could have a dominated A but it's probably more likely he has any pocket pair or a hand without an A or a K.

If this was the MP or SB I'd call.

Yugoslav

pokerraja
02-14-2005, 03:05 PM
I think this fold is correct. You still have over T2500. There are 2 shorter stacks who will be forced to make moves very soon. 1 of them will most likely bust out then.

Also, your only double up away from being chip leader. That can come later. Of course, if roles are reversed here, a push is of essence.

imcastleman
02-14-2005, 03:51 PM
Even if you are a slight dog, you should call here. You are giving up too much expected value by folding. I'm sure someone can do an ICM calculation using the appropriate payout structure to prove that you gain more EV by calling vs. folding even if you are up against a pocket pair. There are only six hands that the utg player could have that would make this a bad call and those are AA and KK.

Daliman
02-14-2005, 05:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Even if you are a slight dog, you should call here. You are giving up too much expected value by folding. I'm sure someone can do an ICM calculation using the appropriate payout structure to prove that you gain more EV by calling vs. folding even if you are up against a pocket pair. There are only six hands that the utg player could have that would make this a bad call and those are AA and KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this logic, but it is VERY close. Lots depends on UTG's play, but then again, there ARE two other small stacks that could bust before you even should you lose the hand. More often than not overall though, I agree and would call here.

pokerraja
02-14-2005, 05:32 PM
I think it important for us to know if you are bankrolled for step 5's? or are you starting from step 1, or 2? Because if you are a regular player and buy-in directly, then a call makes more sense here. But if you are a "trying to hit a lick" and just sneak into the money then fold.

Scuba Chuck
02-14-2005, 05:41 PM
Well, not surprising, I disagree with Daliman. Poker is a game of decisions. Sometimes a good decision is to fold a solid hand, and sometimes a good decision is to risk a crappy one.

FWIW, I'd fold this hand. But I get blasted for my ideas, so who knows if it's worth any salt. There are far too many FE reasons that outway CEV, and probably $EV analysis. The only people happy with your calling are MP and SB.

John Hurst
02-14-2005, 06:26 PM
I am properly bankrolled to take shots at step 5's if the lineup is right. I direct bought into this one. I am not bankrolled to play several a day. I was not trying to just survive, take 4th and win $1200. If I were faced with the same situation again it would be a tough decision, and thanks to some of the posts I see even more reasons to call.

ZeeJustin
02-14-2005, 06:38 PM
This isnt even remotely close. You have to call here. You have him dominated a huge percent of the time, and are very rarely in bad shape. With two stacks having less than 3 big blinds, its ludicrous to think that you can sacrifice an edge that big on this hand and make it up via stealing until the bubble is over. The players in the step 5s are generally not donkeys (although your post proves there are some), so you cant just push them around like you may think.

AtticusFinch
02-14-2005, 06:40 PM
I'd fold it because just making the money in a step 5 would be awesome for my bankroll. If you really are playing to win, it's tougher.

ICM clearly dictates a call. ICM is a great beginning to analyzing this, but it is not the end. It does not take into account stealing opportunities, blind sizes, your skill, reads, etc.

If you have solid reads on your opponents and feel your forward expectation is higher by holding on to your folding equity and stealing, then folding may still be a wise decision for you, even if you're playing for first.

(Reading over this I probably shouldn't even post it as it adds little to what's already been said. Oh well, with all the votes for one or the other, I'll add my vote for being non-committal)

GauchoFish
02-14-2005, 06:48 PM
if you say your intent is to win, you dont think that now becoming a dominant chip lead 4 handed puts you in a good position to do that, with a hand you A: are 30% to be a coin flip w/ or B: are 70% to have dominated or severly crippled.

i don't necessarily think its a bad fold, but i think your reasoning for it makes no sense. If you grinded your way to this step 5 and simply wanted the $1200 so you could say you had a 100-1 ROI then fine, muck it. If you say you want to win, and those are the odds you give for what he had...you should have called, clearly.

WD