AA, scary board

[stanky]

No stats on villian.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero calls.

I plan to checkraise the turn.

Flop: (7.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero folds.

I can't checkraise with two outs.
Final Pot: 5.70 BB

-Pete

[Nate tha' Great]

Don't get cute with AA preflop if you don't know what to do in situations like this. You're going to wind up confusing yourself more than your opponent.

[adamstewart]

Eeeek.

Cap that preflop. The rest of the hand probably plays differently after that...

(Just wondering, how are you playing $5/$10 and *not* capping AA preflop? Is this some advanced move I don't know about?)


Adam

[stanky]

Rare play on my part. Only did it because it's heads up and thought I could trap him for more bets on the turn. If anyone else called I would cap. Even heads up I cap ~98% of the time.

-Pete

[Argus]

Against an unknown cap preflop. Your hand is best here and you want to put as much money in the pot as possible while it still is the best.

Flop is ok, my plan is a call down on this board since your opponent might have a set, but might also have Ax. I don't think a turn check/raise is called for if a blank falls because you often won't have the best hand and you want to showdown cheaply.

The turn fold is pretty obvious, but careful about calling it two outs. Consider likely holdings for your opponent: QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KK, AA. Against most of these holdings you are drawing dead or chopping at best, so saying you have even two outs is pushing it.

[Lmn55d]

The turn fold is not obvious at all. If I played this way up to the turn, I would call down. The "likely holdings" that Argus listed for this player are not equally likely, especially when there are 2kings on the board:

QQ : 3 Combos
JJ: 3 Combos
AK: 4 combos
AQ: 6 combos
AJ: 6 combos
AT: 8 combos
KQ: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo
AA: 1 combo

Now the thing is most players will not 3bet KQ/AT as often as they will AK, AA, etc, so I would discount each of these hands by 50%. Also, TT and 99 are pretty common 3betting hands and there are 6 combos of each.

If what Argus wrote is actually his range of holdings, then you are ahead of 12 and behind 25, or about 2:1 against you. It costs you (probably) 2BB to call down to win a pot of 6.5 BB, so you are getting 3:1 to call down.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn fold is not obvious at all. If I played this way up to the turn, I would call down. The "likely holdings" that Argus listed for this player are not equally likely, especially when there are 2kings on the flop:

QQ : 3 Combos
JJ: 3 Combos
AK: 4 combos
AQ: 6 combos
AJ: 6 combos
AT: 8 combos
KQ: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo
AA: 1 combo

Now the thing is most players will not 3bet KQ/AT as often as they will AK, AA, etc, so I would discount each of these hands by 50%. Also, TT and 99 are pretty common 3betting hands and there are 6 combos of each.

If what Argus wrote is actually his range of holdings, then you are ahead of 12 and behind 25, or about 2:1 against you. It costs you (probably) 2BB to call down to win a pot of 6.5 BB, so you are getting 3:1 to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think most players 3-bet preflop w/AJ? I would discount that hand also...and I would discount AJ/AT/KQ way more than 50% as well...meaning Hero is likely far behind on the turn, and desparately in need of hitting his gutshot.

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
(Just wondering, how are you playing $5/$10 and *not* capping AA preflop? Is this some advanced move I don't know about?)


[/ QUOTE ]
LOL

[Lmn55d]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think most players 3-bet preflop w/AJ? I would discount that hand also...and I would discount AJ/AT/KQ way more than 50% as well...meaning Hero is likely far behind on the turn, and desparately in need of hitting his gutshot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uh...how does this make hero likely further behind on the turn? Out of AJ, AT, and KQ, hero is behind 14 combos and ahead of 6 combos. So discounting these more makes him *more* likely to be ahead than I calculated in my original analysis, not less likely as you seem to imply. Actually, we should discount AT and KQ more than AJ, making him even less of a dog on average. Even if we don't discount these he should still call down.

[Argus]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn fold is not obvious at all. If I played this way up to the turn, I would call down. The "likely holdings" that Argus listed for this player are not equally likely

[/ QUOTE ]
Because of your post I did the math behind this hand, and it's worth calling down just because of how damn far ahead you are of AQ and AJ. Given there was no preflop cap by AA and he checked the flop, this is certainly a call down situation. Thank you for your correction.

[Willluck]

Now why can't he have TT? I mean Hero checks to him that right there gives villain a reason to bet w/ his pair of tens and open ended straight draw.

[Lmn55d]

He could. I mentioned that in my post. I was just using the holdings that Argus mentioned in his post when I did those calculations. He could have 99 too...although I'm not sure how often 99/TT bets this turn, unless they are representing the king. Therefore they should be discounted as well.

[chesspain]

The only hands on that long list to which Hero is ahead are AJ and AQ. And since AJ rarely three-bets PF to an UTG raiser, whereas AQ probably three-bets no more than 50% of the time, I think that Hero is a fairly big dog on the turn. The only bright side is that the paired K means he now has four outs against QQ/JJ, although the pot is too small and the combos of better hands to numerous for him to continue.

[Willluck]

I always three bet PF w/ TT, and it is right to do so

[Lmn55d]

You keep saying that hero is a big dog...but are not addressing the relevant question....is he more than a 3.35:1 dog on average? These are his effective odds to call down. The answer is no. If you want to propose a range of hands (discounted for average frequency a party player 3bets with it, bets flop, and bets turn) where hero is more than a 3.35:1 dog then we have something to discuss.

[Willluck]

I always three bet PF w/ TT, and it is right to do so; why doesn't he have that?