QQ yet again

[stripsqueez]

first hand of a $100+$9 - i get QQ in the cutoff - UTG open raises to T30 and there are 3 callers to me - i raise to T200 - folded to UTG who pushes and its folded to me

call ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
first hand of a $100+$9 - i get QQ in the cutoff - UTG open raises to T30 and there are 3 callers to me - i raise to T200 - folded to UTG who pushes and its folded to me

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you close the action and all others have folded, I'd say call. You're getting over 1.6 to 1, and villain's most likely hand is AK. (I doubt AA would push rather than reraise another 3-400, but I don't know the 109s). With a caller behind, easy fold.

[ChrisV]

Yeah - can't let the chooks get out of line eh? Call.

I did manage to fold QQ on the first hand last night for a loss of only 60 chips, but there were two other raisers involved. They had AA and KK. I even managed to restrain myself from talking about my fold in the chat.

[stripsqueez]

i suppose this sort of decision in the absence of a read is really a balance of the usual chook equity early in round 1 of any level SNG - lots of chook equity in the $100's

so i was 4 tabling and the phone rang when i had this hand - my former bridge partner was intent on explaining the finer points of a 1 suit squeeze - with my head about to explode i decided to fold so i dont know what the guy had

i ran third in this tourney - i got to see a lot of this guy - he had T1800 after the first blind level - he lost half of that on the second level when he limped with J8o and called a push when the flop was A J 4 - he lost the rest calling a push a few hands later with K10s

i dont need to know what he had anymore to know what was right...

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I even managed to restrain myself from talking about my fold in the chat.


[/ QUOTE ]

More impressive than the fold itself.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you close the action and all others have folded, I'd say call. You're getting over 1.6 to 1, and villain's most likely hand is AK . (I doubt AA would push rather than reraise another 3-400, but I don't know the 109s).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. I had never thought of it that way. Guess I fold QQ too often then.

[bismillahno]

Similar situation. Empire 20+2, saturday night US time (I think drunk equity is important here), 3rd hand. Neither hero nor villain has played a hand.

Hero in MP2 with QQ, two limpers, MP1 pushes...

This is an easy call, right?

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy call, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the dodgy looking play equity plus the impaired chook equity you mention make this an auto call

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[ChrisV]

I like this one less than stripsqueez's example, because the preflop push early on is a commonly used tactic with AA and KK, especially at that buyin level. In stripsqueez's example the way his opponent played the hand didn't make much sense for AA or KK.

Nevertheless, I'd still call.

[bismillahno]

[ QUOTE ]
I like this one less than stripsqueez's example, because the preflop push early on is a commonly used tactic with AA and KK, especially at that buyin level. In stripsqueez's example the way his opponent played the hand didn't make much sense for AA or KK.

Nevertheless, I'd still call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That part was what made me pause, but I did indeed call. Not particularly relevant, but he had KK, 10th place and another one underway for me...

[bismillahno]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy call, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the dodgy looking play equity plus the impaired chook equity you mention make this an auto call

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm from a few hours flight away, speak a very similar dialect, and still find your turns of phrase both amusing and baffling at times.
Can't imagine how the Americans find it...

BTW, will be going to the NZ-Aus cricket game on the 22nd in Christchurch, care to make a friendly avatar bet (or similar) on the game/series? (I know I'm taking the worst of it here...)

[jcm4ccc]

I don't agree with other posters that this is not AA or KK. A 300-400 chip raise is clearly a pot committed raise, so why do that? You think someone is more likely to call that bet than an all-in? Not likely.

Also, if AK is an all-in bet, but AA or KK is a 300 - 400 chip raise, isn't that just telegraphing your hand?

I put him on AA, KK, or AK. Without a read, I don't think you cam eliminate any of those hands. So let's look at ICM:

If you fold:
You: 800 chips
UTG: 1315 chips (I think)
3 people: 970 chips
1 person: 990 chips
1 person: 985 chips
3 people: 1000 chips
Your percentage of pool: 8.15%

If you call, you will win 39.86% against AA, KK, or AK.

Call and win:
You: 2115 chips
UTG: 0 chips
3 people: 970 chips
1 person: 990 chips
1 person: 985 chips
3 people: 1000 chips
Your percentage of pool: 19.3% * 39.86% = 7.69% of prize pool

Analysis: FOLD


There are 6 different AA hands, 6 different KK hands, and 16 different AK hands. I found that if I eliminate 3 of the KK hands, then it is even between calling and folding. In other words, if you agree with the other posters that this pattern of betting indicates AK is more likely than AA or KK , then that might sway the analysis towards call.

However, remember that ICM does not take into consideration whether you are better than your opponents. Since it is so close between calling and folding, I would say that that should be the thing that decides whether you call or fold. If you have a positive ROI at this level, fold. If you have a negative ROI at this level, call.

This is all in the absence of any read on your opponent. Apparently he later proved himself to be an idiot. So maybe you could have added a few hands to the mix and made it a definite call.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

so i was 4 tabling and the phone rang when i had this hand - my former bridge partner was intent on explaining the finer points of a 1 suit squeeze - with my head about to explode i decided to fold so i dont know what the guy had

[/ QUOTE ]

A 1-suit squeeze? How the hell do you do that? That would certainly make my brain explode. I can barely handle 2-suit squeezes.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
A 1-suit squeeze? How the hell do you do that? That would certainly make my brain explode. I can barely handle 2-suit squeezes.

[/ QUOTE ]

the hand he wanted to talk about was this one - dummy first

KQJ9xx
A10x
Kx
Ax

-
KJxx
J8xxx
Qxxx

your in 3 no-trump and get a club lead to your right hand opponents king and a club back - you play the king of spades which holds - then the queen of spades which your right hand opponent wins with the ace as your left hand opponent discards a small diamond - your right hand opponent exits a diamond to the other guys ace and your left hand opponent now plays the jack of clubs which you win with the queen as right hand opponent discards a spade (you discard a spade from dummy too)

you need the heart finesse so you advance the jack of hearts with the intention of running it and left hand opponent covers with the queen and you win the ace

how do you continue ?

if hearts divide 3/3 you have 9 tricks but thats not the best line - its a 1 suit squeeze on your right hand opponent (as long as he has fewer than 4 hearts) - simply play a heart to the king and then a heart to the 10 so your in dummy with J9x - K - in the 4 card ending - you know how many spades right hand opponent has so you either exit a spade because that establishes a spade by length or cash the king of diamonds and exit a spade thereby endplaying right hand opponent to lead a spade into the J9

many experts disagree with the title 1 suit squeeze but i think its right - the threats for the squeeze to operate were A) the threat of establishing a spade by length and B) the threat of a spade endplay - both threats occured in the same suit

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[AtticusFinch]

Gotcha. I wondered if and endplay might be involved. I couldn't imagine any other way for it to work.