Live hand #2: Turned top two pair

[soah]

The hand prior to this one is very important for getting a read on my opponent so I'll start there.

I fold trash UTG. Shortstack UTG+1 minraises to $10. First time he's done that so not sure what it means. UTG+2 makes it $40 to go. He has a premium hand. Two folds. MP3 makes it $100. He has a super-premium hand. CO spends 2 minutes talking about how good his hand is and how it's the "hand he's been waiting for". My read is that he is sincere in his anguish. UTG+1 responds with something about how he'll call too if CO calls. CO finally calls $100 cold. UTG+1 calls exactly all-in. UTG+2 says "I know I must be beaten somewhere" and folds. Flop is rags, MP3 pushes for $160 or so, CO is not happy but decides "I think you might be bluffing" and calls. UTG+1 shows AA, MP3 shows KK, CO shows JJ. (I asked UTG+2 if he had QQ and he points to the AA and the KK and says "I had one *those* and one of *those*.)

Next hand, the player who was MP3 on the previous hand limps now from MP2, someone else limps, SB completes, I check in BB with AQo. Flop is QJ7 rainbow. SB checks, I consider checking to keep the pot small, but end up betting $15 instead. MP2 raises to $30. Fold, fold. I call fairly quickly. Mistake? Turn is an ace. I check, MP2 bets $50. I stack 10 chips, look back up at him, pause a couple seconds, and call. River is a blank. I check, MP2 quickly announces he's all-in. I ask for a count and it's something like $232. I think a few seconds, then I start stacking some chips, then I look back at him. During his KK hand when I looked at him he seemed relaxed/confident and was sorta looking away. Now he's watching me and does not seem relaxed. I call.

[okayplayer]

Sounds fine. I 'd put Villain on QJ here most of the time. I dobut he's limping KT, but he seems a little too scared pushing all of his chips in there. The hand I'd be afraid of is 77, but I would have expected more of a value bet of say $100 with a set - why would he want to scare you away?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Hand 1: Party is rigged. Oh, this was live?
Hand 2: Seems like this a is fairly read-based hand. Hard to give you advice on that side of it without being there. So, without the read that he was seemingly nervous, I would say that his play is extremely consistent with 77 or QJ (played poorly either way, of course - nice min-raise). Clearly you are now ahead of QJ and still behind 77. There are equal combinations of each hand (since you hold a Q) so calling the turn bet seems fine. I don't necessarily think calling the flop bet is right, but you might have to call it for meta-game reason alone. It is pretty unlikely he is raising a draw here or a hand you can beat, though. And you don't have odds to improve and might even be next to dead already to 77. So, ignoring meta-game, I would have folded the flop, but called the turn once you called the flop. The river seems almost purely read based. The nervousness and the quick all-in would lead me to call thinking that he likely has QJ and is trying to blow me off my hand. Very unlikely that he has 77 and is worried about AA, QQ, JJ in an unraised pot or the unlikely KT.

[soah]

I'll add some more detail.

As for my read. This is my third session playing live and I am a super-introvert. I have no ability to read people at all. It was more like, I'm sitting there staring at my chips when I suddenly remember that when I'm playing live and have a decision I'm supposed to be making "reads" on people to come up with the correct decision. I gave my read very little consideration in making my decision to call. It just made me feel a little better that he appeared to be a little worried.

Also, as for the speed. On his KK hand his all-in on the flop was also very quick. But on that hand it was painfully obvious to the entire table that he had CO completely crushed. Plus preflop took a good three minutes so he had plenty of time to think about what to do on the flop. And his all-in bet then was only about a half-pot bet so it was a pretty easy decision.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, okayplayer and I both put him on QJ, so that must be what he had. Only reason why I don't like that read is that in some ways KT actually makes more sense. In fact, if I had been the Villain in this hand, I have KTs and only KTs. I basically NEVER min-raise except, occasionally, when I have a draw and I use it as a free card play. If I were villain, I would be thinking
preflop - KTs is not too terrible, so I'll play it cautiously, after all it's a loose table with large implied odds
flop - I'll min-raise to slow him down maybe let me draw really cheap
turn - I hit, let's see what he has and try to build a pot
river - ok, seems like he has a decent hand and I've got the nuts, let's push it all-in. Any big bet without betting all-in would seem too obviously a value bet.

That all being said, I still think QJ is more likely.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll add some more detail.

As for my read. This is my third session playing live and I am a super-introvert. I have no ability to read people at all. It was more like, I'm sitting there staring at my chips when I suddenly remember that when I'm playing live and have a decision I'm supposed to be making "reads" on people to come up with the correct decision. I gave my read very little consideration in making my decision to call. It just made me feel a little better that he appeared to be a little worried.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my live game needs so much improvement. I miss the numbers showing pot size and opponent stack sizes...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll add some more detail.

As for my read. This is my third session playing live and I am a super-introvert. I have no ability to read people at all. It was more like, I'm sitting there staring at my chips when I suddenly remember that when I'm playing live and have a decision I'm supposed to be making "reads" on people to come up with the correct decision. I gave my read very little consideration in making my decision to call. It just made me feel a little better that he appeared to be a little worried.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my live game needs so much improvement. I miss the numbers showing pot size and opponent stack sizes...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Just ask the dealer for a count of everything on every street. That can be your little 'gimmick'. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Just ask the dealer for a count of everything on every street. That can be your little 'gimmick'.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe this is only the case at the casino where I play, (the only one I can, Turningstone... hah...) but they get angry when you ask them pot size. You're supposed ot keep track yourself, apparently.

Also, they keep the pot in a messy manner, (I guess it encourages gambling) as there were only a few who stacked chips. (I can count them when stacked, but in a pile.. tough)

[TheWorstPlayer]

Everyone gets mad when you ask for counts of stuff. You are supposed to keep track of these things, in general. That was why I jokingly said it could be your gimmick because it would definitely get everyone really pissed at you. It's not THAT hard, though. Just think preflop, what the raise was to and how many people called it (round up a little for blinds/limpers who folded). Then get the preflop total and remember that one number. Then on flop, there won't be that many people calling bets so you should easily be able to multiply and add to preflop number. Same for turn and river. I'm sure with a little practice you will get it.

[soah]

Several times someone asked for a count of the pot when faced with a decision and to my surprise, the dealers quickly stacked the chips and counted them.

So anyway... no one is going to tell me to bet the turn or the river?

[suspicious_mind]

"So anyway... no one is going to tell me to bet the turn or the river?"

That´s how I would play it, I bet the turn. This will give you information. You are representing AQ or KT so if he calls or raise you should be beat and you can give up.
I´m not sure of the amount to bet, it depends a little on the player, if you think he might call small bets with QJ or KQ or something you could make a small bet on turn and river and you might get some value out of QJ, the down side of this is that he might make a min raise on the turn to test you, so a big bet about the size of the pot might be best because he would have to commit a lot of money to find out if you really want to commit to your hand. This will probably only work if your opponent thinks you could play KT this way though.

That´s my 2 cents anyway, you probably shouldn´t take what I say to seriously, I´m only a 1$-2$ player and I don´t even think I´m beating the game.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
"So anyway... no one is going to tell me to bet the turn or the river?"

That´s how I would play it, I bet the turn. This will give you information. You are representing AQ or KT so if he calls or raise you should be beat and you can give up.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the point of making a bet where you have to give up if he calls it? I'd rather try to see what he does when you give him the opportunity. It seems like Hero has a pretty good read on Villain and Villain is aggressive so let him hang himself. If you bet small, then he will most likely see that as the weakness that it is (as you yourself pointed out) so you have to bet big. But that means he calls when you are behind and folds when you are ahead so you maximise losses and minimise gains. If you check/call, the same amount goes in when you are behind, but you also make the money when you are ahead. And if you check and he checks behind, then you can easily value bet the river. And now that you checked the turn, there is a greater chance that he will call something on the river. I like the way OP played it.

[suspicious_mind]

Ok betting out might not be the best way to play it for the reasons you gave. However check-calling turn and checking the river could be interpreted as weaknes by him and it puts you in a though spot if he bets the river.

He could have KT, that seems in line with how he has played so far but it´s also possible he has 9T or maybe he realizes his KQ, QJ or QT is no good but he reads you for AQ and think he can push you off it. So you will be faced with a tough decision on the end.

The upside of betting big on the turn would be that you won´t be faced with this decision on the river, you will know you are behind if a good player calls on that turn. As you said though betting is no good since you get no value out of QJ or worse hands.

What about checking the turn too see what your opponent does and then when he bets 50, instead of just calling you raise. There is no way he could view that raise as weakness and he will have to suspect you just made a straight, since it is entirely possible you would play it this way.

You will probably not get any more money from QJ or worse hands anyway as he will either check behind on river or he might bluff if he realizes he is beat. The raise will also force him to fold 9T witch has a 8 outer against you.

I think making a small raise could be enough to give you information here and since you were calling anyway it won´t really cost you that much. The benefit of this is that you will pick up 50 against worse hands compared to nothing if you bet out and it gives you alot of information at a pretty cheap price.

I think another possiblity might be to make a big check-raise on the turn if you think it´s possible your opponent could lay down a set or another AQ.

I guess just check-calling it down might still be the best line if you think your opponent is very agressive but I didn´t really read him as especially agressive from the description of him.

[TheWorstPlayer]

With deeper stacks, I don't mind check/raising the turn, but with these stacks you would be pot committed on the turn if you raised. I really think the best line is to check/call the turn and then see what happens on the river. Possibly throw out a bloicking bet on the river.

[suspicious_mind]

I don´t think you are pot comitted if you make a 80$ raise and he comes over the top all-in I mean there is no way you have the best hand unless he regurlary overplays his hand.
And you will only be getting about 3.3:1 on a 4 outer so I could see folding if he moves in on you.

Check-calling down might be good but theres not alot of hands his opponent could have that he can beat, 9T is the only hand that seems somewhat likely, wouldn´t he check behind with QJ, why bluff when his hand might be good?
Maybe a block bet is good but it looks pretty weak here, unless you make a big 100$ bet, that might slow him down but then I like check-calling better.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If you make an $80 raise and he calls you, what do you do on the river? See, it is hard because you are out of position. Do you check? If so, I think that looks really weak. Min-raise and then check the river? If you bet, then I don't see how you are not pot committed on the river.

[suspicious_mind]

My point was that he wouldn´t call a turn check-raise with anything you could beat, so it would be safe to check-fold the river. The reason you raise is to protect against being bluffed out of the pot. If you think he would call the turn raise with some of the hands you could beat with the intention of bluffing the river than that defeats the whole purpose of the raise.

If you think he will bluff enough to make check-calling down profitable then I agree this is the best line but I´m not he will.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Who folds to min-raises? The whole point of min-raising is that you want them to call. I think there is a good chance you get called on your min-raise here by a hand that you can beat. And if you check the river, you can be certain that aggressive opponents will bluff at you. That is just such a weak looking line. If you had the nuts, you might min-raise, but you would never check the river. But betting PCs you.

[soah]

Results.

OK, I included his previous KK hand as sort of a summary of how this guy had been playing. If he has AA-JJ, no way is he limping in. Although I didn't mention my estimate of his VP$IP, I don't believe he'd play Q7 or J7. He wasn't that bad. So when he raises me on the flop, I'm thinking there aren't many ways he could have me beat, and he may be raising me with a worse kicker. So I called to see how the hand would develop on the turn. And once I made top two pair on the turn I was going to have a very hard time getting away from the hand.

In addition to simply demonstrating that this guy would be coming in for a raise with a big pair, I felt that it showed a critical leak in his game -- he was not thinking much at the second or third level. When he put in the third raise preflop for 20xBB against a fairly solid EP reraiser, the whole table (minus the apparently oblivious CO) was sure he had AA. Or at least, we were sure until UTG+1 flashed his aces to my half of the table.

So as my hand progressed, I have it in my mind that this guy is definitely capable of overplaying good hands. And although I didn't give any information in my post to support this, I felt the chance of him raising the flop with a draw was negligible. That simply was not the way the table had been playing. So when we got to the river I felt the only hand he could have that beats me was 77, and I felt that the chance of him overplaying something else was good enough to warrant a call.

I placed my stack of one black, four greens, six reds, and two whites out in front of me as I announced my call, and my opponent quickly said two pair and flipped his cards. I silently flipped mine up as well, and my opponent slammed his hand on the table as he stood up to go rebuy while the dealer mucked his QJ.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, okayplayer and I both put him on QJ, so that must be what he had.

[/ QUOTE ] Ni han, sir!

[suspicious_mind]

"Who folds to min-raises?"

Yea I wasn´t thinking straight. raise is to small to get anything to fold and you don´t want QJ etc to fold.
You obviusly don´t want to push him out if he´s got a weak hand so you convinced me that calling down is the right play.

If stacks were deeper maybe you could check-raise turn and bet river if you think QJ will call. That would protect against a raise on the river but here you would be pot commited.