Laying down a set on the river -- am I a nimrod?

[Knoler]

Villain is a little loose, but hasn't done anything crazy or anything to really get noticed among my 4 tables.

So, what's the story on this river fold? Am I good 1 in 9.5 times? I figured it for a no, and laid it down. Maybe I was wrong... ::shrug::

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Superman is Button with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Superman calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Superman 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Superman calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Superman folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

I'm not playing sets anymore -- they're clearly flush magnets. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,
-Brian

[mtdoak]

This is the kind of decision that I usually leave up to PT/Player viewer. If he's not very agressive (less than 1), its as easy fold. Calling isn't terrible here, but its really 100% dependent on the player.

[adamstewart]

It's a close decision, but I think I call this down since it's been heads up since the turn.

He could only have a pair of aces, and since you didn't raise back at him on the turn, he may think he's still good.


Adam

[Nick C]

I probably would call, but I wouldn't be very optimistic while I was calling.

When BB just calls your flop 3-bet but then leads when the fourth club falls on the turn, I don't think that's a good sign. Maybe with the K /images/graemlins/club.gif he would go for a checkraise, but even there he might have been worried about you checking behind with what he thinks is a lower flush that you flopped, and also he could have just made a low/medium flush himself (with something like A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif) and is worried about getting his checkraise 3-bet.

Also, though, he might have decided that you don't have a club, so he figured the turn card was a good one for him to bluff with his top pair hand. And he could be continuing that bluff on the river.

Anyway, I think it's quite possible you will be good often enough on the river here to call. But, to be honest, part of the reason I would call is that I'm not very good at laying down sets for one bet on the river.

[Willluck]

I probably would have folded that river too.

[Knoler]

Hey guys,

Thanks for the responses. Sounds like we're in agreement that it's a close decision. In the future, I'll probably make read based folds / calls.

Adam -- you mentioned not raising the turn. Are you suggesting I should have raised the turn? Or are you just illustrating a possible thought process for the villain?

Regards,
-Brian

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys,

Thanks for the responses. Sounds like we're in agreement that it's a close decision. In the future, I'll probably make read based folds / calls.

Adam -- you mentioned not raising the turn. Are you suggesting I should have raised the turn? Or are you just illustrating a possible thought process for the villain?

Regards,
-Brian

[/ QUOTE ]

Rasing the turn is strictly dominated by calling down if the villian will never fold a better hand. If he will fold a flush x% when you raise the turn, then the right play depends what x is and how big the pot is. In general though, people probably won't be betting baby flushes on the turn (rather they will check/call). They will either be betting a big flush (or maybe 2-pair or something) or they will be betting as a bluff.

Brad

[Alexthegreat]

It smells like a bluff to me....he may hold a small flush, but after your 3-bet, any big club is most likely going for a checkraise, and most small flushes are going to check-call.....After you just call, it's an easy river bet for him....I would put him to the test on the turn and take a free showdown.....It costs the same as calling down....

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys,

Thanks for the responses. Sounds like we're in agreement that it's a close decision. In the future, I'll probably make read based folds / calls.

Adam -- you mentioned not raising the turn. Are you suggesting I should have raised the turn? Or are you just illustrating a possible thought process for the villain?

Regards,
-Brian

[/ QUOTE ]


No, no... don't raise the turn. I was just illustrating the villain's possible thought process, as you said.


Adam