Newbie needs some advice. K10o, in low stakes tournament

[hpny22]

Hi everybody,

Just started checking out this forum this week, and I have only been playing for a few months. I recently played in a home game for my first cash tournamnet (10 players, $10 buy-in, 1st place gets 80, 2nd gets 20). Players start with 1500 in chips, blinds start at 50.

I fell behind early, but came back to make it to the final three, with a slight chip lead (about 6300). There is one player with about 5400, and another with less than 1000.

I am dealer and get K10 offsuit, and double the blind of 600 to 1200. SB (5100, LAG) goes all-in, BB folds.

I know he could very well have nothing, and just be bluffing, which he has done often. However for some reason he tells me straight out he has a low pair, and I believe him. Do I call? I figure I can wait to get him all in with an induced bluff with a better hand. I fold. He shows 4s.

The next hand comes, and I have 2s, and after the flop 4, 4, 10 (no flush draws) he raises 1000, I raise it to 2000, and he goes all in. I have him on two high cards - basically the reverse situation of the previous hand. I call. He shows JQ.

The turns and river come, K, and 9, giving him a backdoor straight, and knocking me out.

The way I look at it, either I made a mistake twice and lost the tournament, or I played correctly twice, and just got unlucky. I would appreciate any thoughts and advice. Thanks

[David100]

K10 is not a strong hand against a raise. Even if he had a small pair it is a 50-50 and not really worth it as the third player will go bust soon. It is easy fold.
You still have a lot of chips left if you fold, so you are not in a bad position. Wait till a better hand to bust him, and be agressive.

David

[AtticusFinch]

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The way I look at it, either I made a mistake twice and lost the tournament, or I played correctly twice, and just got unlucky. I would appreciate any thoughts and advice. Thanks

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Actually I think you played ok the first time, and blew it the second time.

1st hand, your fold is correct. Your risk of being dominated is high. Even if he turns his hand over and shows you his low pair, you're behind in the hand and will be crippled if you lose, and the short stack has < 2 BB remaining. Get out. (ICM analysis backs this up - ~.39 $EV for folding, ~.32 for calling. Even if it didn't, I'd fold here, though, as ICM doesn't account for the huge blind size)

Second hand, you should be raising (or possibly even pushing) PF. Assuming you just call, your reraise on the flop is awful. You have deuces and the board is paired, plus there's a ten. He could well have caught the ten, or have another low pair. Even if he didn't, if the board pairs again, you are counterfeited and can't beat the board. Assuming he has overs, that gives him at least 9 outs on the turn and 12 on the river, in addition to backdoor draws like the one that fell. That means that the absolute best case scenario is you have about a 60% chance of winning the hand. More often you'll be a huge dog, and you have no way of knowing where you stand one way or the other.

He told you he has a hand with his bet, you have no real reason to believe otherwise, and not enough of a hand to go to battle with him. Once again, get out.

By the way, where is the short stack at this point?

[gumpzilla]

You mention inducing bluffs from this opponent. Is that the reason that you were minraising in these positions? Were you having luck stealing with preflop minraises, or did the LAG come back over you like this often? I don't really like the minraise in this position.

Given the situation, I really dislike how you played the second hand here. The short stack at this point was in the SB, if I understand you correctly, and had just barely more than a BB left. Inducing a bluff with 22 here is a poor choice, because unless he's holding a 2, even if he doesn't already have you beat, he's going to have excellent chances of beating you. Provided he's not holding a 2, 4, 10, or a pocket pair, he's going to have nine turn outs (three of each of his cards and the three 10's) and then twelve river outs if the turn is not a 2 or a 4, since there will be another card that can pair up and give him either a better two pair or two pair with a better kicker. So even in the situations where you are ahead, you're not very ahead at all, and he could be "bluffing" here with 33 and still be way ahead of you. Marginally ahead or way behind, coupled with the shortstack being on the cusp of busting out and the payoff structure only rewarding the top two, seem to make this a very poor gamble. (It's worth considering that 1st paying 4 times second might place lots of worth on winning this and basically sealing up first.)

[AtticusFinch]

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your reraise on the flop is awful.

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By the way, I don't mean to be harsh by saying this. It just helps to know when a play is especially poor. We all made these kinds of mistakes as beginners.

Welcome to the board.

[The Yugoslavian]

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Hi everybody,

Just started checking out this forum this week, and I have only been playing for a few months


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Welcome to the forum, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

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I recently played in a home game for my first cash tournamnet (10 players, $10 buy-in, 1st place gets 80, 2nd gets 20). Players start with 1500 in chips, blinds start at 50.


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Already you're off to a good start giving decent details about the game.

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I fell behind early, but came back to make it to the final three, with a slight chip lead (about 6300). There is one player with about 5400, and another with less than 1000.


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More good info, especially considering you don't haveh a HH at your fingertips, I like it.

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I am dealer and get K10 offsuit, and double the blind of 600 to 1200. SB (5100, LAG) goes all-in, BB folds.


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I'd either go allin here or fold. If a minraise will be enough to take down the blinds unless ur opp. has a big hand then this would be okay, but it really just screams 'marginal hand.'

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I know he could very well have nothing, and just be bluffing, which he has done often.


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If you already know he can make this play with nothing you have to push preflop or fold (wait until the 3rd small stack busts, then start pushing).

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However for some reason he tells me straight out he has a low pair, and I believe him. Do I call?


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Vs. a low pair? NO WAY. In fact, vs. just about any hand you gotta fold this given the 1st/2nd payout structure.

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I figure I can wait to get him all in with an induced bluff with a better hand. I fold. He shows 4s.


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What he shows is pretty irrelevent. Good fold.

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The next hand comes, and I have 2s, and after the flop 4, 4, 10 (no flush draws) he raises 1000, I raise it to 2000, and he goes all in. I have him on two high cards - basically the reverse situation of the previous hand. I call. He shows JQ.


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What did you do preflop? Pushing 22 here could be okay but I'd probably fold and/or check if in the BB. As for the flop, *any* hand he has runs well vs. 22 so you have to make him fold and/or check/fold yourself.

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The turns and river come, K, and 9, giving him a backdoor straight, and knocking me out.


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Sucks, but is totally irrelevent.

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The way I look at it, either I made a mistake twice and lost the tournament, or I played correctly twice, and just got unlucky. I would appreciate any thoughts and advice. Thanks


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Well, it doesn't seem like you played so well but neither did he. FE is pretty importnat and your not giving yourself any in these situations. You ended up with the better hand when you got your money in but it was a best case scenario for you and pretty marginal even after you saw he didn't have a pair.

You need to make decisive decisions and put him to difficult ones for all of his chips. Otherwise, you should hold a monster and be baiting him (and 22 is no monster, in fact, it's a pretty margin/bad hand).

Yugoslav

[hpny22]

Thanks for all the advice.

First I have some real newbie questions - what do HH, ICM, and FE stand for?

In the second hand, I believe I checked preflop from the BB (after villian called from the dealer spot), probably planning to fold on most bets. But the 1000 bet from this player seemed weak, so i doubled it trying to steal the pot right there. But, I guess I played that wrong, and probably should have folded right there. Especially with the pay structure as it was, though i have to admit, i wasnt thinking about second place. Does it really makes sense to push preflop with 22?

BTW, the short stack folded preflop.

I realize that the results are irrelevant, which is why I didn't mention that the K and 10 came out in the first hand (we turned them over even though I folded).

I also just realized that I made a mistake in my initial description. There were 15000 chips in the trnmnt, so the short stock probably had closer to 3000, and I must have a few hundred more as well. Im not sure how I got that far off, or if it changes much.

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your reraise on the flop is awful.

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By the way, I don't mean to be harsh by saying this. It just helps to know when a play is especially poor. We all made these kinds of mistakes as beginners.

Welcome to the board.

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No offense taken. I realize I am a beginner and i have a lot to learn, and thats why am here.

Yugo, thanks for your play-by-play analysis.

I do feel alot better that the first play was correct, because that was eating me up all week, since the cards came out. I know that results dont matter, but had it been a mistake, and then my cards hit, Id feel pretty stupid.

Thanks again for you the help. Hopefully, if I play often, I can make some money. i doubt anyone else is availing themselves of 2+2, or even reading any books.

Seeya

[AtticusFinch]

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First I have some real newbie questions - what do HH, ICM, and FE stand for?


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Hand History, Independent Chip Model, and Folding Equity, respectively. ICM is a math formula that estimates the value of your seat at the tourney in real dollars based on 1) the payout structure, and 2) how many chips you have left. This value is abbreviated as $EV, and represents a percentage of the total prize pool. For a typical SNG structure, this tool will compute it for you: http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICMold.html

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Does it really makes sense to push preflop with 22?


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Frequently yes, due to the third item above, folding equity. Folding equity (or FE) is defined as the amount of money you'll make if villain folds, times the pecentage chance that he will fold. If you push, the total expected profit/loss is FE + Call% * (winAmount*win% - loseAmount*lose%). With pocket pairs, the folding equity combined with the good chance of winning if you can see all 5 cards often makes this a profitable play, even on the bubble.

In your particular case, checking on the BB is not so bad, though. With a big stack against another big stack, it's not unreasonable to take a free look at the flop, and try to break him if you catch trips. A good old adage applies for low pairs if you see a flop, though: "No set, no bet."

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BTW, the short stack folded preflop.


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Was he on the SB or the button? How many chips did he have left? These are important considerations here, just as important as the cards you hold.

Once again, welcome, and good luck.