confused with QQ

[Kumubou]

Looking at this hand I'm still not quite sure what the correct play is. Fold preflop? On the flop? Turn? River? Stick it out due to pot and implied odds? Did I overplay QQ?

General table texture could be described as "crazy loose."

Pacific Poker .05/.1 Limit Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is the CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG folds; UTG+1 to UTG+2 call; MP1 folds; MP2 calls; <font color="red">MP3 raises</font>; <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>; Button calls; SB to UTG+1 folds; UTG+2 calls; MP1 folds; <font color="red">MP3 caps</font>; everyone calls.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players, 18.4BBs)

UTG+2 bets; MP3 bets; <font color="red">Hero raises</font>; Button calls; <font color="red">UTG+2 3-bets</font>; everybody calls.

Turn: 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players, 15.1 BBs)

UTG+2 bets; <font color="red">MP3 raises</font>; Hero to Button calls; <font color="red">UTG+2 3-bets</font>; <font color="red">MP3 caps</font>; Hero folds; Button calls.

River: J/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players, 29.1 BBs)

Checked around. (After all that betting?!)

Total pot: 29.1 BBs.

(Of course, it doesn't dawn on me until it's two to me on the turn that I might be beat... huzzah. And I understand you can't play results-focused poker, but #$^#$^&amp;#%^#$. And for those that care, UTG+2 was on 99 and MP3 was on TT. No idea what the button was on, because Pacific sucks. 3 pocket pairs in one hand, bizarre -- .000204% of that happening.)

-K

[toss]

You should be happy they play that way. Read Small Stakes Hold'em by Ed Miller.

[Shillx]

There is a 1.6% chance of having exactly 3 people get delt a pocket pair at a 10 handed table.

[Kumubou]

Maybe that's why my play is wack -- I can't count.

I figured the odds of getting any pocket pair were 3/51 (the first card you get and one of the three to match versus the 51 left), which is ~5.8%. The odds of that happening in three specific instances is 5.8%^3. Is there something I am missing here that would bring up the odds considerably?

[Sykes]

Bet the river, why are you checking? 99 and TT are calling you.

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at this hand I'm still not quite sure what the correct play is. Fold preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, no, don't do that. Flop is ok if you don't have a decent read yet, but I already know I'm behind, and on the turn way behind. +2's flop play screams "99", (or a lazy-limped AA/KK/AK, which is unlikely).

I gotta admit I had a hard time putting MP3 on a hand other than a big K. Normally his aggression is tolerable, but when you have one on each side of you, it's rough. TT barely crossed my mind. Oh well, one out of two ain't bad.

[llamaoo7]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe that's why my play is wack -- I can't count.

I figured the odds of getting any pocket pair were 3/51 (the first card you get and one of the three to match versus the 51 left), which is ~5.8%. The odds of that happening in three specific instances is 5.8%^3. Is there something I am missing here that would bring up the odds considerably?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the situation if there are only 3 people in the hand. At a 10 handed table, there are 10 possible hands out there and you are trying to calculate the probability if 3 are PPs. You also have to consider the fact that after one instance of a PP, you have less cards in the deck and there is a slim possibility of two people that have the same PP. The true (easiest) way to calculate this involves combinatorics.

[DeadManJay]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG folds; UTG+1 to UTG+2 call; <font color="red">MP1 folds</font>; MP2 calls; MP3 raises; Hero 3-bets; Button calls; SB to UTG+1 folds; UTG+2 calls; <font color="red">MP1 folds</font>; MP3 caps; everyone calls.

Flop: 6 K 9 (4 players, <font color="red">18.4BBs</font>)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having a hard time understanding this HH, I highlighted some of the stuff that confused me, did MP1 fold the first time or second time that says he folded? Or was that MP2? I'm just trying to figure out how much money was in the pot for odds on the flop.

I think I have 19.5SB total preflop. This pot is so big that I think the raise on the flop was pointless, even raised people are getting good enough odds to draw to just about anything. Hero was getting close to 30:1 to call the cap from MP3 on the flop, so I think the call was fine.
Why fold when you did on the turn?
You're getting better pot odds the 2nd call than the first.
8.5:1 the first call
13.5:1 the second call
You only need 7:1 for this to be worth it with your 6 outs.
I call to see the river here.

[Nick Royale]

I would fold the turn.

[Kumubou]

The second MP1 folding should be MP2 folding; I had an off-by-one error initially pre-flop and corrected it for everyone except MP2. Oops. I would edit the post but apparently this forum has a time limit for that.

Why did I bet the first time and fold the second? Because I'm an idiot. -_-;; Honestly though, I did not see the remaining queens as actual outs, as by this point I figured it was highly likely I was up either against a straight or trip Ks , which would leave me four outs which would may just tie the hand. Also figured some random lower trips or two pair were possible, expecially by the BB. Any way you slice it, I was way behind on the turn. In that instance, folding on the turn facing two the first time around would have been correct. Of course, if some magical gnome made me call the first bet, recalling the second one (with the higher pot) makes sense.

And the odds thing I understand now. The percentage I listed is for three specific players getting PP; in reality it's any three from the set of ten. Basic combinatorics; hurr.

-K

[DeadManJay]

You're probably right for discounting the Q outs, but with a pot this big and the implied odds of when you do hit I think a call is worth it, even getting only 8:1 on the first call. I don't have anyone on AQ, so you're not losing if you hit, but another Q is a small possibility.

[yecul]

You had outs entering the river. You had two of the four queens, so I would consider the J's to be clean outs. If you hit the Q then you only really fear AT or KK the former of which is unlikely and the latter... well, what can you do? If you spike the J you're only losing to AQ which also seems unlikely. I don't like the turn fold at that point with the pot so large.

[DeadManJay]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hit the Q then you only really fear AT or KK the former of which is unlikely and the latter...

[/ QUOTE ]

If the hero spikes a Q a single J beats him with the st8, thats why I agreed that the 2 outs for the Qs should be discounted.