triple draw - drawing two on the second draw

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i'm a little confused on this one and i want to make sure i know the exact odds here to know what i'm doing.

ok suppose i start with a hand like 2-3-7-K-K and have one opponent. I draw two. He draws onee.

i catch two complete blanks A-A with two more draws left.

How big does the pot have to be for me to draw two cards here, assuming my opponent will either draw one or stay pat?

[partygirluk]

post this in other poker, or give us non 3-draw geeks enough info to do some math /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Cobra]

I will make some assumptions. I assume you have two draws left and an acceptable outcome would be getting one each of a 4568 or 9. After your first draw there are 45 unseen cards. On your next draw the following are your probabilities.

Two of your card=combin(5,2)*power(4,2)/combin(45,2)=16.2%
None of your cards = combin(25,2)/combin(45,2)=30.3%
One of your cards = 1- above = 53.5%

Now if you got none of your cards or one the probability of getting two or another card on the next draw is as follows.

No cards on first draw=combin(5,2)*power(4,2)/combin(43,2)=17.7%

One card on first draw = 16/43= 37.2%

Now we can come up with some answers:

P(success on first draw)=1 in 6.2 or 1 to 5.2 odds
P(success with two draws)=1 in 2.4 or 1 to 1.4 odds

If you don't get any on first draw:
P(success on second draw)=1 in 18.6 or 1 to 17.6 odds

If you get one card on first draw:
P(success on second draw)=1 in 5.0 or 1 to 4.0

Hope this helps.

Cobra

[Cobra]

I saw an error in my last post.

If you don't get any of your cards on the second draw the probability of success on third draw is:

P (succes)=17.7%=1 in 5.6 hands or 1 to 4.6

If you get one card on second draw probability of success on third draw is:

P (success)=37.2% or 1 in 2.7 hands or 1 to 1.7

Cobra