TT bubble hard decision?

[Allinlife]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2505)
BB (t1200)
UTG (t1330)
Button (t2965)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">UTG is allin 1330, Button folds</font>.
Hero folds

Final Pot: t450

lotta folding going on and the pusher has been pushing every once inawhile.. he pushed just previous round with QQ I called with 3J given nearly 3:1 pot odds

so anyways, was folding correct here?

[curtains]

Folding was very bad, you have to go allin here. You should go allin with hands FAR FAR FAR worse than TT here.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2505)
BB (t1200)
UTG (t1330)
Button (t2965)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t450

lotta folding going on and the pusher has been pushing every once inawhile.. he pushed just previous round with QQ I called with 3J given nearly 3:1 pot odds

so anyways, was folding correct here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm understanding this right, it's folded around to you in the sb and you fold? If so, folding is really bad here. This is a very easy push. But I'm not entirely clear if that's the action.

[Allinlife]

sorry I did NOT open fold TT
, I believe UTG pushed here and button folded...converter messed up anwyays I folded because I had enough chips for nice FE and if I lose this I'm crippled, so I pass my chance instead to steal more later

[curtains]

I would call with TT anyway, very very good chance you are dominating them, and even if you lose, its okay.

[Allinlife]

I thought I would have made to the money just by stealing, since it will only take 2 steals to accumulate 900 w/o showdown

[USS Gut Shot]

But you are also trying to place first or second. Calling would be my play. You want to be the one busting the players so you can win. If the other players bust them now they are going to be in a better spot to win. I wouldn't suggest you call with J8 or something like that, but 1010 is another story. Also, this may be the best hand you see in a while.

Stealing blinds only works when everyone folds, so you can't count on it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You should go allin with hands FAR FAR FAR worse than TT here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious to know why you advise CALLING with far far worse than TT here?

[ QUOTE ]
You want to be the one busting the players so you can win

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really the advice you want to be known to give? I would be careful following this advice. IMO, I would prefer others bust each others chops, and slide into the money.

[ QUOTE ]
Stealing blinds only works when everyone folds

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but duh. Blind stealing is very EZ on the bubble IMO. There are many many situations where you can count on it.

[Bigwig]

Absolutely call this. It's VERY likely you have the best hand, and you're getting a good price. Even if you lose, you're not dead yet. You'll be about even with the other short stack.

[Scuba Chuck]

ICM analysis first:

Fold = 28.8% of the prize pool

Push, win = 39.2% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 19.3% of the prize pool

I think it is VERY safe to assume BB will fold if you call, as he slides ITM if you win.

So what range of hands should we put villain on? Because villain is putting pressure on the other small stack, the only other player with whom he has any FE agaisnt, I believe this opens up his range of hands a little. I am going to do two analysis. One with the typical range of hands, and one with a much looser range.

Typical Range of Hands: A7+, pairs, any 2 broadway cards except TJo,

Looser range of hands: Any A, Any K, Q8+, J9, J8s, suited connectors - 56+, one hole suited connectors 68+.

Range 1 Analysis:
TT has 61% win % against range

Call = (.61)(.392)+(.39)(.193)
Call = 31.4% of the equity prize pool

Range 2 analysis:
TT has a 67% win % against range

Call = (.67)(.392) + (.33)(.193)
Call = 32.6% of the equity prize poo

Final Analysis
Fold = 28.8% of the equity prize pool
Call(R1) = 31.4% of the equity prize pool
Call(R2) = 32.6% of the equity prize pool

So no matter how you look at it, calling looks correct.

Allin, I think you benefited by posting this hand. Whenever you don't know for sure, do an ICM analysis, and post here. As you can see, this is kind of close, but over the long run, it is a +$EV move to call.

If I were in your shoes here, given what you've told, especially the fact that he won with a recent premium hand (which gives him table image for like 1 or 2 orbits), and that he is pressuring other SS (which, IMO, opens up the range of hands he would push with), I would likely call.

If he were pressuring the big stack (which, IMO, tightens up the range of hands he might push with), I might fold. I'm assuming here that Big stack would be behind you in the BB.

The lesson to learn here is that villain is using good skill here in pressuring SS, and convinced you to fold with a solid (not great) hand.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should go allin with hands FAR FAR FAR worse than TT here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious to know why you advise CALLING with far far worse than TT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice was given when the OP had messed up the hand history and it appeared as if it were folded around to him in the sb and he open-folded.

[Allinlife]

thanks for fine-detailed analysis

appreciated /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM analysis first:

Fold = 28.8% of the prize pool

Push, win = 39.2% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 19.3% of the prize pool

I think it is VERY safe to assume BB will fold if you call, as he slides ITM if you win.

So what range of hands should we put villain on? Because villain is putting pressure on the other small stack, the only other player with whom he has any FE agaisnt, I believe this opens up his range of hands a little. I am going to do two analysis. One with the typical range of hands, and one with a much looser range.

Typical Range of Hands: A7+, pairs, any 2 broadway cards except TJo,

Looser range of hands: Any A, Any K, Q8+, J9, J8s, suited connectors - 56+, one hole suited connectors 68+.

Range 1 Analysis:
TT has 61% win % against range

Call = (.61)(.392)+(.39)(.193)
Call = 31.4% of the equity prize pool

Range 2 analysis:
TT has a 67% win % against range

Call = (.67)(.392) + (.33)(.193)
Call = 32.6% of the equity prize poo

Final Analysis
Fold = 28.8% of the equity prize pool
Call(R1) = 31.4% of the equity prize pool
Call(R2) = 32.6% of the equity prize pool

So no matter how you look at it, calling looks correct.

Allin, I think you benefited by posting this hand. Whenever you don't know for sure, do an ICM analysis, and post here. As you can see, this is kind of close, but over the long run, it is a +$EV move to call.

If I were in your shoes here, given what you've told, especially the fact that he won with a recent premium hand (which gives him table image for like 1 or 2 orbits), and that he is pressuring other SS (which, IMO, opens up the range of hands he would push with), I would likely call.

If he were pressuring the big stack (which, IMO, tightens up the range of hands he might push with), I might fold. I'm assuming here that Big stack would be behind you in the BB.

The lesson to learn here is that villain is using good skill here in pressuring SS, and convinced you to fold with a solid (not great) hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also interesting here is that even if our read is wrong, and villain's range is like (55-AA, AT-AK, A8s, A9s), we _still_ make money by calling (we have a .565 win% vs this range, so trusting your ICM numbers I get 30.5%). It's only when he has a set like 99-AA, AK, AQ that our call becomes slightly incorrect (.435 vs that range; via your numbers I get 28.0). Of course your range is much closer to reality; I just think it's interesting that this is one of those hands that intuitively looks pretty marginal if we give UTG lots of credit, but turns out to be pretty clear in the end.