My implyed odds on blinds.

[Peter_rus]

So as you probably know i can make any queries in PT and this weekend i studied my implyed odds. I think you would find them interesting overall. I counted - how much money gave me certain flopped combinations depending on how much players see the flop and im out of position (in SB or BB). Of course not all of them have decent sample size but many have enough shots to consider.

I did this scan in order to set up my blinds defence more accurate. All results got in next conditions:

1. I called any single raise in BB.
2. I completed in unraised pot SB, or called a single raise in SB.

Sample size - 135K of 15/30.

All results given in terms of $$/hand but you can easily convert them to BB/hand simply dividing number per 30.

So here where go:

1. Flopped pairs+ (two pairs, trips, fulls, quads)

2-way flop

pairs from 2 to 5 +26.03$
pairs from 6 to 8 +24.48$
pairs from 9 to J +19.75$
pairs from Q to A +29.12$

3-way flop

pairs from 2 to 5 +7.23$
pairs from 6 to 8 +10.70$
pairs from 9 to J +24.47$
pairs from Q to A +44.51$


2. two flopped pairs (when you have not PP)

- two pairs when both cards are below 9 +60.92$
- two pairs when at least 1 card is above 8 + 64.78$

2-way flop: + 61.26$
3-way flop: + 63.36$
4-way flop: + 68.02$
5+-way flop: + 63.67$

3. Trips+ (but not a set with PP)

- trips from 2 to 8 (for eg you have 27o and flop is 22K) +79.12$
-trips from 9 to A +101.52$

2-way flop: +52.23$
3-way flop: +85.02$
4-way flop: +113.52$
5+way flop: 157.17$

4. Sets (when you have PP and flop gives your magic card)

-sets from 2 to 5 +138.09$
-sets from 6 to J +144.74$

2-way flop: +90.33$
3-way flop: +169.21$
4-way flop: +132.65$
5+way flop: +166.58$

5. 4card flush draw on flop.

2 way flop: +6.5$
3 way flop: +32.07$
4 way flop: +61.66$
5+way flop: +7.28$ (for the last - sample size isn't enough, but lowering of profit is because many flushes multyway loose money to higher flushes as i believe)

I had problems to evaluate OESD on flop as needed query to determine OESD is way more complicated than flush draw but i suspect that OESD have nearly the same value as 4-flush. It has only 8 instead of 9 outs and straight loose to flush, but it also have more implyed odds as good straights are more hidden than flushes.

As im not a maniac or something postflop out of position you can take with some discounts these numbers to set your own blind defence.

Also i've done some analysis using these gotten implyed odds about defending against certain hands your BB HU.

Conditions: if you flop at least - pair+, 4flush, OESD you don't fold on the flop. Also you don't fold pair till river or 3T+ cards happens on a board and you do not c/r until you have 2pairs+.

1. 27o against AA -1.22BB
2. 27o against AKo -0.52BB
3. 27s against AA -1.07BB
4. 27s against AKo -0.37BB

[Kaz The Original]

The bell curve on the first set of numbers is interesting.

You are doing an amazing job here.

[stoxtrader]

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[William Jockusch]

Peter, this is really interesting stuff.

I do have some questions:

Are your figures your total winnings on the hand, or merely your winnings after the flop?

Do you include times when you are defending the BB against the SB? (So you are in position . . .)

Thank you for your posts on this. This is really interesting stuff.

William

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
Are your figures your total winnings on the hand, or merely your winnings after the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Total winning of the hand incliding preflop. Net win.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you include times when you are defending the BB against the SB?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes i include it, but i can exclude it though i think it's not so often to greatly influence results.

[Peter_rus]

Interestig conclusion from these numbers - you must defend against steal raises HU your BB with any trash suited, and with any trash offsuited and not connected if you think that you have at least 1 card higher than raiser for a rough estimate - 35-45% of time. Against aggressive stealer you must defend with any two and it will be better than folding and loosing -0.5BB instantly.

Defend your BB 3-way against steal if at least one of your cards is Q+, any suited and connected hands higher than 89.

You can't defend with low pocket pair HU planning to proceed only if you catch a set - you must extract some profit on non-dangerous flops unimproved to make this defend correct. if you do not plan to perform it - then you better fold PF.

[astroglide]

these results are only from a 130k db. very cool work, but i would be seriously reluctant to draw conclusions about offsuit blind defense etc. if you, for example, will only tend to defend with 'anything' against a spaz your results will be very positive overall with them and could shape your results heavily.