For Newbies – Improve your middle play – Hand Lesson 2

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1295)
SB (t760)
Hero (t1410)
UTG (t2845)
MP (t1690)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t760 (All-In)</font>, HERO...

Again, I’m interested in your thoughts. Talk about as many factors as possible, but try and limit your response to 8 sentences or less (so I can read them all)

[SumZero]

It depends on my reads on the players. I'll fold this sometimes, and I'll usually go all in. If I think the button and sb are both tight players then the bet and raise signals that my hand may well be in trouble. If button has a real hand and small blind is willing to go to the mat against this strong hand then I think I should pitch the hand and wait for a better spot with all the players roughly equal. If I don't have the tight read, I push all in and expect the button to fold a lot of hands. I hope the small blind has a lower pp or Ax x&lt;= 10.

[Creeper_thp]

Button wanted to be re-raised; he's committed a significant portion of his stack with the raise. If Hero re-raises (which is all he can do, calling makes no sense) then there's no point in Button folding since it leaves him short stack while either SB or Hero get healthy in a hurry. You might have SB beat, you might (although I doubt it) have Button beat, but you don't have them both beat. Gotta fold.

[stillmatic]

fold...... then slam my hand against the table as they show AK and AQ and no one improves

[skipperbob]

This is not even close, a clear fold, in my opinion. Anxious to hear from some of the heavyweights; Irieguy, Lorinda, SuitedSixes, et.al.

[GimmeDaWatch]

Button's raise is deeply suspicious to me, thats my 1st thought. Either he's not terribly bright and has some notion of saving chips on his steal attempt, or (more likely) he's looking to get someone all-in with him. Its also extremely difficult to put SB on any sort of narrow hand range given that he's so short, but he clearly likes his hand enough to be willing to race it against a pot-committed raiser. There's a few scenarios here where you'd really want to get all-in (button AK, SB smaller pair, they both have Aces) but the distinct possibility that you're behind is much uglier than the upside is pretty. Sooooo, I guess I reluctantly fold.

[Merlyn22]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1295)
SB (t760)
Hero (t1410)
UTG (t2845)
MP (t1690)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t760 (All-In)</font>, HERO...

Again, I’m interested in your thoughts. Talk about as many factors as possible, but try and limit your response to 8 sentences or less (so I can read them all)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very interesting question - here is what I think:

Situation 1: move all in and get called by the button – you win main and side pot
Your stack= 3465 if you’re against an overpair held by either one you’re only about 18% to win the whole pot – Against two decent hands that don’t have an over pair, you’re about 45% to win the whole pot (two overs and an under pair or two hands holding two overs to your pair, etc…)

Situation 2: move all in and called by button- button wins hand
Your stack = 115
It doesn’t matter who wins between the button and SB, if you lose to the button, you’re basically out of the tourney without a miracle comeback.

Situation 3: move all in and get called by button – you beat button but lose to small blind
Your stack = 1185 I believe this situation Is less likely simply because the small blind has a desperate move in stack – he needs to make a move with any decent hand – especially since this is a small buy in SNG he could have ANY pair or any two high cards. So, it is more likely the button has a better hand than the small blind simply because his stack allows him to be more choosy unless he’s just on a complete steal with a trash holding. This puts you as the short stack on the bubble. If blinds stay at 100/200 you may have some FE against the medium stacks. If blinds are going up within the next hand or two, you may not.

Situation 4: Fold
Your stack = 1210 after surrendering your BB
You actually ended up in almost the exact situation as #3, Your FE is the same.

I didn’t cover any situation where the button folds because it will probably never happen. Since folding the your hand and going all in and beating the button while losing to the SB have the same end result, I believe if you think you can beat the button go all in. You won’t lose anything no matter what if you beat the button. If you happen to beat both players, you’re in a good spot with a big stack. There could be a flaw in this reasoning - It's getting kinda late to be thinking clearly, but am interested in what other people think.

[Scuba Chuck]

Okay, Merlin (I'm laughing), directions say 8 sentences. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I 4 table the $33s, so I have little if any reads. I usually begin to start paying attention at about 5 handed, for sure 4 handed. (I don't know if that is right, so take it for what it is).

Rather than me "giving" answers, I'd prefer to lead a discussion. So here are some more questions to think about.

First, what range of hands might Button be betting with?
Next, what range of hands might SB be pushing with?
How does my hand match up to those two? What's my win probability?
I am for sure the small stack if I fold. Do I have any Folding Equity?
After this hand, if I fold, we will be on the bubble. What is the general concensus on how the other stacks will start to play, now that we're 4 handed?

Also, how many hands ahead are you thinking about, other than just the current hand?

[spentrent]

I'm getting out of the way. Let the opener bust the short stack. I don't like TT after two confident bets. Most likely there are three overs in the mix.

If they both have smaller pairs, I consider that an anomaly. There are precisely a zillion more ways for 3 overs to be out there.

[Mr_J]

"Anxious to hear from some of the heavyweights; Irieguy, Lorinda, SuitedSixes, et.al."

Yep.

First, what range of hands might Button be betting with?

I think this bet = stength or a very weak steal attempt. I think it will usually mean strength, so I'm thinking JJ+.

Next, what range of hands might SB be pushing with?

I'm thinking a good Ax and 55+.

How does my hand match up to those two?

Big dog or big fave vs button. Usually ahead of SB.

I am for sure the small stack if I fold. Do I have any Folding Equity?

Yes, but I'd be selective of what I what push next hand (big stack is in BB).

After this hand, if I fold, we will be on the bubble. What is the general concensus on how the other stacks will start to play, now that we're 4 handed?

The other short stack to make a mistake or be very tight. Button (I assume he's the fave) to be more conservative. Big stack will probally throw his weight around, but probally won't be too aggressive. We won't always be on the bubble.

Also, how many hands ahead are you thinking about, other than just the current hand?

I'm thinking I wish bigstack wasn't right behind me.

[curtains]

I fold here, although there is a pretty good chance that TT is the best hand.

[snapfc01]

Fold. you are currently bb... so u won't have to see that again until everyone else. mp isn't much ahead of you and will have to make a play soon as well. i would but the button on any top 1/3rd of hands and would most likely push without the sb call. best case if they call... but have smaller pps. mostly likely at least 2 overcards maybe 3 or 4 or even a bigger pair. tens aren't strong against two players. the only way i would call here would be if i thought the rest of the players were far better then me.

[KenProspero]

Let's have some fun with numbers -- using ICM

A. I fold, and button calls.

1 SB wins -- my expected pay out is .1707
2 Button Wins -- My Expected pay out is .1795

Let's call my expected return as .175 for folding.

B. I call, Button Calls.

1. I win -- expected pay out is .3282
2. I lose, SB wins expected pay out is .1024
3. I Lose Button Wins expected pay out is .1111
(assume expected pay out for lose is .1075)

C. I push Button Calls

1. I win -- Expected pay out is .3654
2. Button Wins Expected pay out is -- .0235
3. SB wins, I get overpot expected pay out is .1768
4. SB wins, I lose over pot expected pay out is .0193
(I'm going to guestimate my overall expectation if I lose as .1000 -- may be off, but not by much).

My algebra is a bit rusty, but if I'm right, I need about a 30% chance of winning the pot (+/-) in either case to make it worthwhile calling (I get 30.5% for calling and about 28% for pushing -- Lower, actually, since there is a small chance that Button will fold)

I'll leave it for someone else to run the simulation, but I suspect that if I only need a 28%-30% chance to win the hand outright for this to be a mathmatically correct bet that it's either correct to push, or at least a very close call.

[11t]

Fold, at the VERY best you are up against 2 under pairs in which you are only a 70% chance to win the hand. I think that is unlikely.

What is more likely is an underpair/overcard such as AQ and 66 in which you are now 45% to win OR 3-4 overcards. Against 3 overcards you are 45%. Against 4 you are now 31%. I would say the only real chance of being up against 4 over cards though is if the button raised with a hand like KJ or QJ and the SB holds AK/AQ.

HOWEVER this all assumes the button will call if you push back at him. If you think the SB would make this play WITHOUT a higher PP and the button is known to steal, and would be more inclined to do so with a short stacked SB then I feel a push is your best move. In the 4 over card scenario I pointed out that it is possible he could make this raise with QJs or KJ knowing he had to call the SB's push. I do not think he would be inclined to call your over the top reraise without a higher PP since his outs could be tied up in the SB's hand (A-x vs A-x).

Folding is always good but pushing could be better in some situations.

[KenProspero]

11T

If (1) your analysis is correct - and I'm sure it is, and (2) my mathmatical analysis above is correct - more dubious, this is an easy Push. You only need a 30% chance of winning the pot for it to be the mathmatically correct bet.

[johnnybeef]

with a raise and an all in you are probably going to be a coinflip at best, furthermore someone in this hand will either get busted or crippled. ez fold.

[11t]

What I am worried about isn't that I am getting odds to push, but that by pushing I am giving the button odds to call with overcards.

If this was a multi-table tournament and we were in the money and I was tryiing to build a big stack to run at 1st then I feel this is an easier push since you are indeed getting odds.

However you are short handed at a STT and your goal is to finish ITM and pushing here is definitely jeopardizing your chances to do so. The button has invested almost half his stack in a raise, and the SB has pushed. You are not ahead in this hand.

I don't have the math to prove this but I'm willing to bet that the amount of money you make by calling this bet and finishing ITM is less than the amount of times you fold this, let one of the raisers get knocked out/crippled and continue stealing.

I only think pushing is right if you think the button will fold, which he would be foolhardy to do so.

There is far more to this than odds.

[adanthar]

Against a horrible button, I push. Against everyone else, I fold this like my hand is on fire.

[Daliman]

I'd likely push here. There is likely fold equity from Button, and SB getting knocked out hurts your situation almost as much as it helps you. If you had ~2000 after blind post, its a much tougher decision, but since folding here would leave you only about 1200 and you will be short stack by 480, i think a push is warranted.

[curtains]

I completely take back my answer, I push here. (I misread some details about the question)

[AA suited]

calling the sb push is not an option. button will probably push.

i dont know how to interpret the button just raising to 500 instead of all-in. anyone not sleeping knows if you are playing this hand, you are in it for 1295 chips.

sb is desparate and i read his all-in = ax/2 face cards/pocket pair.

after posting bb, you are down to 1200 chips (6BB). if i had 99 or less, i would fold. if i had QQ+, i would push.

TT and JJ =???, but lean towards agression and push.

- there is a *SLIGHT* possibility that the button was bluffing and will fold. or doesnt want to go into a coin toss.
- both could have AX, which means one less out for both of them
- button could have ak, and sb could have qj (or any combo of akqj). at least by having TT, you've taken a couple of outs for them making a straight.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Mr_J]

Yeh I'm a bit undecided too. You probally have the best hand. It's a hand you'd prefer to go HU with though. Button will probally call. I think on paper I might fold since I think I can outplay my opponents. In real, I might be tempted to push seeing the hand I have.

Big stack has an influence here. If he is LAG, I might push since he could easily take away the stealing opporunities I would need. If he isn't an LAG, then the stealing of his blinds puts you right back in there.

[Creeper_thp]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd likely push here. There is likely fold equity from Button, and SB getting knocked out hurts your situation almost as much as it helps you. If you had ~2000 after blind post, its a much tougher decision, but since folding here would leave you only about 1200 and you will be short stack by 480, i think a push is warranted.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking here, though, is that there's only 2 possible reasons I can see for Button to bet like he is: he's an idiot, or he's trapping. I can probably beat SB but unless I've got a great read that Button is terrible, my TT has almost no chance to improve while all of his likely holdings either beat me outright or are, at best, a coinflip, and that's not even considering that best case scenario is that SB has an underpair. I'd rather take my chance pushing with a random hand later than pushing now when I have a strong feeling I'm already beat, and even if I'm ahead, there's a good chance someone will improve to beat me.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeh I'm a bit undecided too. You probally have the best hand. It's a hand you'd prefer to go HU with though. Button will probally call. I think on paper I might fold since I think I can outplay my opponents. In real, I might be tempted to push seeing the hand I have.

Big stack has an influence here. If he is LAG, I might push since he could easily take away the stealing opporunities I would need. If he isn't an LAG, then the stealing of his blinds puts you right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 6x the BB, your capacity to outplay is SIGNIFICANTLY compromised.

[Mr_J]

I play $33s, and one steal and I'm right back in it. If bigstack isn't going to run over the table, I think it's very possible to remain competitive.

Chances are that he does like to throw his weight around though, which will make getting ahead of the other 2 stacks a bit tougher.

Also depends on button and his previous plays. If I'm confident I'm in front of him then I'll push. I'm not worried about SBs hand.

I guess for me this hand isn't clear cut and really depends on the reads/playing styles of the players.

[ilya]

Raise all-in. The ICM says so, and it's not close for any likely ranges of hands.
Only time I'd fold is if the button is a tricky attentive player and you've re-raised him from the blinds earlier this tournament.

[stinkyman]

Buttom play seems sneaky unless this is his mo with this postion...that could be determiner.(standard steal attempt) Otherwise buttom seems sneaky. Button on AK to JJ if being clever.

Small blind is non-factor. Decision lies with button. What does his raise mean?

Without any read on button, fold. Sacrafice my small blind next hand and steal with button. Sit with 1400 hopefully four handed.

Did I read yesterday "poker not cards"?

[AtticusFinch]

In the spirit of the exercise, I won't give my answer. I'll just say this is a great idea for a series of threads, Chuck. Now if the experienced players will just get a clue and stop posting their answers so quickly.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Perhaps the next thread title should say: ONLY BEGINNER POSTERS ALLOWED, or something.

My only comment on the hand is, pay careful attention to Chuck's hint about thinking about where you'll stand on future hands.

[curtains]

Itd be a better idea if his answer for the first question wasnt so wrong.
But okay, I imagine that the responses shuold make that clear to the "newbies" anyway.

[Nottom]

I probably fold, but I think people are really underestimating the chance of the button folding to a push.

[morgan180]

I'd call it "Some things to think about" I don't think that these should really be titled for newbies - i think they're great discussion points, but i don't think they should be taken as "advice" more as "things to think about" thanks for the lively discussion scuba.

[morgan180]

i think this one is a lot more interesting than the first one, is TT good enough to call here - i think the button will be shoving the rest in too... i would think that i'm looking at best overs or a smaller pair, at worst someone woke up with JJ or better.

i honestly would wind down my entire time bank here. unless it was obvious from the previous play that the button was aggressive and the SB was desparate i would probably let this one go...but i hate saying that.

[ChrisCo]

I think this is a push. Anyone that says that this is a strong raise from the button needs to wake up. If they really are fearing a premium pair whenever the button raises has to get their head out of their ass. And the goal of playing a stt is not to finish in the money but to make the most money. I would rather play aggressively on the bubble by increasing the chances of building a stack vs. playing passively to make it in the money. Trust me you will have a much higher ROI if you are able to know when it is right to gamble it up late in the tourney. This is a prime example of the situation. You will take alot more firsts over mosts people mediocore results when you play like this.

[Mr_J]

Yeh you know at my level ($33), seeing Ax or 2 facecards from button and and a mid PP or something like AQ from SB seems very realistic.

I guess I just can't believe that someone is stupid enough to throw away 500 chips like that (but people do stuff like this so who knows).

If button is just stealing, he won't call. He obviously doesn't want to risk all of his chips, so you definately have folding equity.

He probally is stealing enough to make this a comfortable push. If he had AA he'd probally limp. If he had KK and maybe QQ he'd probally minraise.

[Dosh]

For me this is all about reads.
If the Button is tight and hasn't been stealing any AND/OR the SB is shortstacked because he's tight and has been blinded off, this is a clear fold in my book.
If the Button has been stealing a lot with 2.5BB raises AND the SB is SS because he's gamboolin' then I'm inclined to push.
With no reads just fold and hope the Button takes out the SB so you can get crazy aggro on the bubble.
There ya go, less than 8 sentences, Boolean logic, n00b poster, happy days.

[two_dogs]

Hmmm this is a tough one.
1st.I agree with ChrisCo and MrJ that this is more likely a bad steal attempt by the button.
2nd.The bad play is a call.Fold or push.
3rd.If you fold you still have some FE.
4th.Your highly likely to be up against 3 overs 4 are possible.

so this is a coinflip and given my recent troubles being short stacked on the bubble ... I puuush.

[swarm]

I think I re-raise the button all-in, reason being chip stacks.

I'm not sold on the button's hand. With the way the chip stacks are I could beat the button and lose to the SB and be virtually in the same position with the winnings from the side pot as if I just folded.

However by pushing all-in 3 positive things could happen:
1) Button could fold and it is me versus the SB HU (unlikely as Button is pot committed)
2) I lose to the SB but beat the button which shows that my blinds can't be railroaded over and i'm still in fair position with winnings from side pot.
3) I almost triple up and have a great shot at winning the table and almost am golden to make the money.

If Button and SB blind are both playing overcards they could be sharing outs which could also improve my odds.

It's close, I prefer to gamble in these situations however. Worst case is that I lose to the button.

[Mez]

So a big assumption here is that the Button's raise isn't unusual. If he's been pushing allin previously and now decides to standard raise, I might put him on a better pair. But assuming no evidence of that, the range of his likely holdings is quite large.

I would:
1 - Raise allin - Clearly the more aggressive play. You might have some fold equity with the Button (possibly a lot if he was on a steal), then you're getting 1.65:1 to beat the SB, whose likely slightly behind (coinflip- AQ) or well behing (underpair, one overcard [A9]).

2 - Fold. Only if my read of the std raise screamed of AA or KK.

I would def not flat call. If the stacks were deeper, I would consider a stop n go.

[nokona13]

Since newbies were invited:

Of course, this is all read dependent (but that's the answer to every question on this forum, so...). My thoughts are:

1) Consider SB first (easy first). SB basically needs to double at this point. So he's happy to get all in on a coin flip. So he's pushing here with probably any PP, and any two cards &gt;=J, and AXs. So I'm a big favorite against alot of those hands, so I want to be against SB here.

2) Button: At party 22s, some players' steals are not pushes, but raises like this. If I've seen Button do this a few times, I assume that's the case, put him on a similar range of hands to SB, and push, figuring probability that both have underpairs or one underpair and one A9s or whatever is great enough that I like my chances to triple, and what that does for my expected winnings.

3) Button 2: If button has pushed at all recently, I'm confused by raise, think chances of JJ-AA go up, and fold.

4) Other considerations: If I fold, even after posting SB next hand, I'm still %50 or more of the big stacks and &gt;6xBB. That gives me good FE. I don't like being right in front of big stack, but the stack considerations probably push me towards folding, rather than pushing. If reads other than mentioned above worry me about pushing, this helps make my decision to fold easier.

[suspicious_mind]

If you beat both players you are in the money and you have the chip lead. If you fold and button wins you will be on the bubble with the shortstack, if SB wins you will still be 5 handed and only the button will have less chips than you, we could also assume it´s pretty likely button will push next hand if he loses now, even if he doesn´t you will not be in a great position to steal because you have the chipleader on your left.
If you push and lose to SB you will not be in much worse position than you are now. If you push and button wins... well you still have a chip and a chair.

So what could your 2 opponents have?
SB is desperate so he could have alot of hands, I´m putting him on Ax, any 2 facecards any pocket pair, QJ, QTs, JTs, 9Ts, K9s etc maybe he is tighter but that seems close, he has to take some -EV plays here because the alternative seems worse.

The general assumption seems to be that the button has to be very strong or he would have pushed. I don´t agree with this, I mean there is no way you can be this certain of what button is thinking. He might not have considered he would be pot commited and just made his usual steal raise. He might have 22 and figure that if you just call in the BB he can push all-in on a low flop or get away from it if you push on an ace high flop.
He might have Ax and intending to call if the SB push but fold if you push. He might have had QJs and thought that by raising 500 instead of all in he gives him self another way to win the pot, you might just call instead of reraise in the BB and he could push you off a KQ or something on a ace high flop. He could have KT prepared to call if anyone pushes but when both of you move in he might fold and hope you bust SB and then hoping to survive into the money.

I think the button could be on a wide range of hands, about Ax,KT,QJs,22 or better.
I´m not sure how to calculate your equity against 2 opponents with that range of hands but I´m guessing it´s a clear push.

This is all without a read, if I think the button is tighter than this and could only have good ace or pair and he would usually push unless he had a monster, then I might lay it down but without that kind of read I can´t see folding TT.