AQo calldown...whuuuut???

[DrGutshot]

am I beat and burning bets or am i missing bets?

CO is 43/10, postflop aggro of 1.5 after 40 hands.
Button is 43/10 also, PFaggro of 1.0


DrG has A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

CO openraises, DrG 3bets, BB calls, CO caps, callcall.

Flop 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

check, check, bet, I *call*?, BB calls

Turn A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

*check*?, check, bet, call, call.

River 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check planning on calling...

I was about 50/50 as to whether or not he was capable of raising the river with a worse hand than mine if I bet out.

-DrG

[rory]

I like the way you played this hand.

[cab4656]

I think I would have folded to the flop bet. Someone want to tell me if that's wrong?

[ggbman]

I would fold the flop and raise the turn.

[TStoneMBD]

i cant tell if youre on the button or not. if youre the button i like calling the turn. you lose 3 bets when behind and villain may easily fold a weaker pair to your raise. if youre the sb id checkraise.

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
i cant tell if youre on the button or not. if youre the button i like calling the turn. you lose 3 bets when behind and villain may easily fold a weaker pair to your raise. if youre the sb id checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm the SB. Why does your statement about losing 3bets/him folding change when I'm in the SB vs. the button?

-DrG

[MAxx]

i would have folded to the flop bet also.

Edit: Where in the hell did my Avator go? Did somebody steal it? How could it just dissapear like that?\

ah its back, thats better

[Michael Davis]

I would have bet the flop.

-Michael

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

that would be my second choice (and it maybe better than checkfolding)

3rd choice is checkcalling for me. and i don't really like doing that so much. i can see the argument that you have a reasonable chance of being ahead here.. maybe drawing cleen to 6 outs, but i don't like the likelyhood of drawing so slim (because of the King on the flop and pf aggression). while these guys are loose pf, LP pfr % is not out of line at 10% (actually pretty tame). I would tend to think that after the capping pf, that this flop missed you... and you are unlikely ahead. i checkfold.

if I think I am ahead, i would bet out and not check call.

if LP pf raiser was raising with much more than 10% and casualy capping SB 3bets... then I would consider checkcalling flop, but even then I like leading flop more.

[aslowjoe]

I would also have led the flop. If I had accidentaly hit the check button twice. I would have raised the turn. That was the best possible card you could have gotten. You called and then did not bet or raise when the best possible scenario came.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you explain this? because i don't get it

(1) if you plan on calling a very likely raise, then i don't like it
(2) if you plan on folding to a raise, i think it's a bad bet because it's essentially a bluff which has 0% chance of working, and you don't even get to see the turn card in a big pot
(3) even if CO only calls, you still have only accomplished what check calling would do

i like check calling followed closely by check folding

[Michael Davis]

Sure, it's a tough spot, but I don't have so much respect for preflop caps that I'm convinced my AQ isn't the best hand here. It's a tough spot for him to raise; you are showing a lot of strength by betting into him here. If you are raised I would call the flop and abandon ship on the turn if I don't improve. But I think you will take control of this pot enough times by just betting that you should.

-Michael

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are raised I would call the flop and abandon ship on the turn if I don't improve

[/ QUOTE ]

so by betting sometimes you'll have to pay 2 bets to see the turn and then fold anyway, and sometimes you'll see the turn for 1 bet, which is the same as check calling

[ QUOTE ]
But I think you will take control of this pot enough times by just betting that you should.

[/ QUOTE ]

my point is that "taking control of the pot" doesn't do anything for you here, as he's not folding a better hand than yours. in a less fishy game i would say a bet has more merit.

[Michael Davis]

Well if you check-call and check-fold the turn you are very susceptible to folding the best hand. Are you calling this all the way down? I'm okay with that. I'm not okay with never finding out where I'm at.

-Michael

[MAxx]

i agree that checkcalling flop with intension of checkfolding a non A turn is a horribly bad plan.



when you check-call this flop, you are saying that you are highly considering showing down A-high... and most definitely showing down when hitting a queen. that's why i check fold flop, b/c i just don't see the value... and I think a 10% pfr with avergage agression who capps pf is beleivable enough in this situation when you miss on flop.

i just say all this because, b/c if this is a weak approach(which i dont currently think it is), i would like to improve on that.

and again i like leading much more than check-calling flop

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if you check-call and check-fold the turn you are very susceptible to folding the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

let's estimate how often you'll have the best hand here, and compare it with the size of the pot.

CO capping hands (given the flop):
AA, KK, QQ - 3 ways each
JJ-88 - 6 ways each
AK, AQ - 9 ways
AJ, AT - 12 ways
KQ - 9 ways
KJ - 12 ways

ahead of 24 hands, tied with 9, behind 63 (drawing to 3 outs or less against 39 of those 63). and remember, this is already a liberal range of capping hands for anyone, not to mention his low preflop aggr of 10

getting 12-1 on the flop, i think you can take one off here. check folding may be better though, as you have another player in the hand

[ QUOTE ]
Are you calling this all the way down?

[/ QUOTE ]
no

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not okay with never finding out where I'm at.

[/ QUOTE ]
i think you have a lot of information. agg factor of 10 capped preflop 3ways and bet a K-high flop and turn into 2 opponents

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
that's why i check fold flop, b/c i just don't see the value... and I think a 10% pfr with avergage agression who capps pf is beleivable enough in this situation when you miss on flop

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree, i like check folding the flop the best now

[ QUOTE ]
and again i like leading much more than check-calling flop

[/ QUOTE ]
i still hate leading. i listed the disadvantages before. what are the advantages? "taking control of the hand" at the risk of getting raised is pointless unless there is a good chance that they'll fold or you have the best hand, both of which are extremely unlikely

[MAxx]

ok maybe not horrible bad.

if you give yourself 3 outs... wich is somewhat questionable here. you are getting 14.67 to 1 to improve to an A versus 12 to 1 pot odds to take one off on turn. so not that bad, because when you do hit an A on turn you can make up a few bets.... However, in this scenario you can expect that your A will not take down the pot everytime you hit a turn 3 outer.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
if you give yourself 3 outs... wich is somewhat questionable here. you are getting 14.67 to 1 to improve to an A versus 12 to 1 pot odds to take one off on turn. so not that bad, because when you do hit an A on turn you can make up a few bets.... However, in this scenario you can expect that your A will not take down the pot everytime you hit a turn 3 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

a couple of notes:
(1) 3 outs as a rough estimate sounds about right
(2) implied odds basically = 0, since when you hit a Q, you're going to be paying off a better hand some of the time, or your opponent may check behind as he has position
(3) an A won't always win it for you but that's why we come up with an "effective outs" figure of about 3, because some of the time you'll be drawing to 6 outs (i.e. against JJ-88)

so still looks like a fold on the flop, although it's close b/c you're ahead on the flop occasionally if CO has very loose capping standards. i still think betting is a huge money loser in the long-run bad unless you're up against thinking players

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would also have led the flop. If I had accidentaly hit the check button twice. I would have raised the turn. That was the best possible card you could have gotten. You called and then did not bet or raise when the best possible scenario came.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're taking into consideration the hands he has that won't pay off a c/r but may continue betting/bluffing.

-DrG

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you will take control of this pot enough times by just betting that you should.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't any point to taking control of the hand if it won't increase profitability. Being out of position here makes it almost as expensive to try to take control of the hand (especially if you're beat) as it is to call down.

I'm ok with not being in control especially if it lets my opponent "control" the pot by continuing to bluff.

-DrG

[DrGutshot]

i check he bets i call he shows QQ and I take it down.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

-DrG