Damn river actually helped me....

[adamstewart]

Really want comments on the river, but other streets welcome too.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (6.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font> ...


Do you see the dilemma? Hero does what here on the river?


Adam

[Sarge85]

I guess it's the situation "will a worse hand call"....

It's tough.

I'm guessing I check call.... but that seems so weak tight.

Ack.

I'm conflicted.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[jason_t]

Check/call or is that too weak?

[adamstewart]

Haha..good, so I'm not the only one.


Further, what if I bet but it gets raised behind me?


Adam

[einbert]

Honestly, this seems like a simple bet and fold to a raise to me.

Noone bet the turn, so it's unlikely that someone has the 7. Someone could have aces up but you are certainly calling a bet anyway right? You need to bet so the guy with JT can "pick off your ace bluff". The flush might be out there but if it's not you're pretty much an overwhelming favorite to win the showdown. If someone raises your bet it's not hard to get away from this fairly small pot, but I think you need to get some value out of your pair of aces by betting this--a lot of hands that might call your bet are checking behind after that ace hits.

If you were playing against really good thinking players I think check/calling has more merit, but against the average party 2/4 player value betting and folding to a raise seems right.

[mr pink]

i'd bet

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, this seems like a simple bet and fold to a raise to me.

Noone bet the turn, so it's unlikely that someone has the 7. Someone could have aces up but you are certainly calling a bet anyway right? You need to bet so the guy with JT can "pick off your ace bluff". The flush might be out there but if it's not you're pretty much an overwhelming favorite to win the showdown. If someone raises your bet it's not hard to get away from this fairly small pot, but I think you need to get some value out of your pair of aces by betting this--a lot of hands that might call your bet are checking behind after that ace hits.

If you were playing against really good thinking players I think check/calling has more merit, but against the average party 2/4 player value betting and folding to a raise seems right.

[/ QUOTE ]


NOTE: Party $3/$6.


Anyway, what if CO holds AK, AQ, or AJ? If I bet, there's a good chance he will raise with any of these hands. If I automatically fold to a raise, I would be folding a winning hand in all but the AK scenario....


Adam

[27offsooot]

How aggro is CO, his play looks a whole lot like AK if he is reasonable. He won't call a river bet with KQs and he will likely bet AJ, AQ. I c-call b/c it gives u the added advantage of seeing whether bb c/rs. I call one back to me, but not 2.

[Nick C]

This is a dilemma. I'd imagine CO will probably bet AK-AJ if he has those hands. Will the hands be AQ-AJ often enough to call? I'm not sure, especially since AQ is more likely than AJ, and against AQ, you're only tied with CO.

What else would CO 3-bet preflop and then check behind on the turn? I guess maybe an overpair that feared a checkraise from a straight. Or maybe he has a JJ or QQ he suspected was behind on the turn, and he took the free card. Also, it is possible that his preflop 3-bet was out of line, and after he had been called in two places on the flop, he decided to give up. Plus, I guess something like K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif can't be completely ruled out.

I don't know. I really don't want to bet here very much. I think there's a chance CO will raise you with hands that beat you and with hands that tie you, but I don't think you'll be chopping or winning often enough to call the raise. Will he call with QQ or JJ or KK? I guess he might, but I'm thinking he probably would have bet those hands on the turn. Plus, there is the BB to worry about, who I think is more likely to have a worse hand than CO and call with it, but he also might be trying for the second (or first) time to checkraise.

Overall, I think I like checking. I also think there's a case to be made for folding if CO bets. But I'm pretty sure I would actually call instead (unless BB checkraised, of course), figuring he may have decided his KK-JJ is good after all, he may be taking a last stab at the pot after 3-betting preflop with 22, and he may have a top pair hand that's no better than mine.

[Alexthegreat]

The pot isn't big enough for me to bet...I can't see any hands that beat you that will call and not raise, and likewise, I can't see any hands that YOU beat that will call a bet..they'll either fold or raise...(he will be raising almost any big ace I think, so like you said, AJ will raise you and you'd be folding the best hand)....This makes it a check and call situation.....

However, If you ARE willing to put 2 bets in here, (bet and call a raise) you should check and raise, if the BB folds...You gain some fold equity, and you still put in two bets if you lose....(He won't three-bet without a flush of course)

[private joker]

I don't know what people are getting so worked up about. You hit a pair of aces. Bet it. If someone raises, it's a simple fold. There are straight and flush possibilities on this board. It's highly unlikely someone will raise with a hand worse than a pair of aces, but MANY hands will call -- including any pair; especially because the turn got checked around, and Hero's bet looks like a stab at the pot.

File this under the textbook chapter for Bet/Fold.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
You hit a pair of aces. Bet it. If someone raises, it's a simple fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of reasons for the CO to raise, including having any ace, and if he thinks hero is bluffing...I'm never putting CO on a straight or a flush, because he most likely would have bet the turn with either holding.....The only realisic hand that he beats hero with is AK....So if the CO raises, it's not such a simple fold........

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
File this under the textbook chapter for Bet/Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I respect your opinions, but I'm not at all sure that's where this river decision should be filed.

[Alexthegreat]

.

[tetonpete]

I think if you automatically fold to a raise here, you be folding a winner or a split too often. A raise here will fold out hands that may have overcalled. I think check and call is the right play.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
A raise here will fold out hands that may have overcalled

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very important and it hasn't been mentioned so far.....The BB may call one bet with just about anything, which makes checking and calling by far the best choice...