SSHE overcards

[eviljeff]

SSHE repeatedly assigns 1.5 outs to an overcard without explaining why. If I'm playing AK-AJ against a ragged flop I'm counting 6 outs - am I wrong to do so? true someone could have 2p or a set, but I figure this is made up for by the times that I spike a pair and someone calls me down with Arag-Jrag. is the 1.5 outs per overcard due to reverse domination worries? if anyone's feeling particularly anylitical I'd love to see a derivation of where 1.5 comes from.

[Raza]

1.5 outs was a specific example where the player had AK and knew that his one opponent has KK or QQ. With a Q on the flop, both hands were equally likely, so each A or K on the river would win the pot exactly half the time.

[DontRaisePlz]

Yes, particularly the ace, king, and queen. [ QUOTE ]
is the 1.5 outs per overcard due to reverse domination worries?

[/ QUOTE ]

[MarkGritter]

One other consideration on the flop is that you have to worry about the reverse implied odds. If you hit your overcard, you might still lose if a lower pair spikes his trips or two pair, or outdraws you in some other way on the river.

The overcards section (p. 211 of SSHE) talks about how the value of overcards vary; top pair is not necessarily a very strong hand, and that is what you are drawing to with overcards. Winning 50% is probably a good estimate, although I too would be interested in hearing a more analytical reason why this is the case rather than 33% or 66%.

[eviljeff]

no, they use the 1.5 out convention elsewhere too

[GrunchCan]

Basically, estimating an overcard to be worth 1.5 outs means that you believe that 50% of the time when you spike your pair, it's good enough to drag the pot.

It's pretty uncommon for an overcard to be worth more than 1.5 outs. If for no other reason, TP doesn't win 50% of all pots. If you estimate your overcards to be worth more than 1.5 outs, you had better have a damn good reason or your'e spewing chips usually.

It's very common for overcards to be worth less than 1.5 outs. For example, on a board of KQJ when you hold a naked A, your overcard A is worth a lot less than 1.5 outs, becasue there are so many ways you can lose.

The moral of the story is, 1.5 outs is really just a guideline. It's a place to start estimating the value of your hand - not the place to end. Experience and postflop skills will help you tune the estimate. Anyone who always estimates every overcard to be worth 1.5 outs every time does so at thier peril.