AKs value bet?

[Nate tha' Great]

Party 15/30 I have A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB and raise three limpers. The BB folds and everyone calls.

Flop 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif I bet and only the last limper on the Button calls. His stats are 42/13/1.0.

Turn 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif I bet and he calls

River 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I'm pretty confident I have the best hand. River action?

[cold_cash]

You might have the best hand but it's tough to imagine him calling with a worse one, (isn't it?).

I'd check and let him bluff at it if he wants to.

[Evan]

Any read on the button other than the PT numbers? I feel like a lot of this is dependant on how tricky (or retardedly aggressive) he can be. Betting against one of those guys can set you up for terrible folds. Also, it seems as though the typical unknown there can't check a river though so that bodes well for check-calling. Since you're going to have to fold to a raise and that could be really expensive I'd rather check-call.

[Nate tha' Great]

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You might have the best hand but it's tough to imagine him calling with a worse one, (isn't it?).

I'd check and let him bluff at it if he wants to.

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I think he might call with like any ace which made it this far because of the gutshot.

[Evan]

I agree that aces are not folding. I am way more worried about getting raises from worse hands than calls.

My name is Evan and I am weak-tight?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Any read on the button other than the PT numbers? I feel like a lot of this is dependant on how tricky (or retardedly aggressive) he can be. Betting against one of those guys can set you up for terrible folds. Also, it seems as though the typical unknown there can't check a river though so that bodes well for check-calling. Since you're going to have to fold to a raise and that could be really expensive I'd rather check-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I'd fold to a raise.

Let me correct that: I would call a raise.

[sthief09]

OK, so he definitely calls with A high. he might call with KQ. he could have worse K's or a hand like QJ. if you check, I think he'll often bet with Q or K high. I think he has these hands a bit more often than A high. if you check, he'll check behind with A high maybe 75% of the time and bet the other 25%. if you bet, he might raise if he happens to have a pocket pair. I think that inducing a bluff is best here, since you cna probably induce a bluff more often than you can get a worse hand to call. it also makes up for the times when he raises with a better hand. if he'll bluff raise, then I can see a case for betting. if you don't think he'll bluff that much, then I guess bet, but I really do think he'll bet K or Q high a lot

[sthief09]

if he'd bluff raise, then you have a great case for betting as opposed to checking. 2 bets with the best hand. if he has a hand like 77, I don't know that he'd raise if he didn't raise the flop or turn. if he has a 4, well it happens, but there's only one of those. he'll have an A a lot of the time here. if he'll bet an A everytime, it's an easy check since he'll also bet with hands he won't call with. if he won't bet an A ever, then it's an easy bet, since he'll have an A more than anything else.

[Evan]

Okay, then that makes betting more attractive. The idea of putting in 2 bets on the river just seems not so good to me.

They can't check through on the river, like ever, I really like check-calling. He is more likely to have a non-ace-containing hand and i don't think you're getting a lot of calls from KQ (though you may get bluff raised which makes betting cool) so check-calling seems like you're picking up 1 extra bet enough times to make up for when you might have gotten 2 out of a bluff.

This is all just off the top of my head though so feel free to rip into me.

[Tosh]

Those stats suggest he calls with k high and possibly worse, obviously just an assumption but he's obviously loose. I am definitely going to bet.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so he definitely calls with A high. he might call with KQ. he could have worse K's or a hand like QJ. if you check, I think he'll often bet with Q or K high. I think he has these hands a bit more often than A high. if you check, he'll check behind with A high maybe 75% of the time and bet the other 25%. if you bet, he might raise if he happens to have a pocket pair. I think that inducing a bluff is best here, since you cna probably induce a bluff more often than you can get a worse hand to call. it also makes up for the times when he raises with a better hand. if he'll bluff raise, then I can see a case for betting. if you don't think he'll bluff that much, then I guess bet, but I really do think he'll bet K or Q high a lot

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Personally I don't think KQ likes this flop at all.

[sthief09]

42 VPIP doesn't chase with 2 big cards? the gut shot does make an A by far the most likely hand

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
he'll also bet with hands he won't call with

[/ QUOTE ]
My instinct is to say that there are enough of those to make up for the times you mis bets by checking. They like to bet the river when checked to, so why not let them.

[Tosh]

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Personally I don't think KQ likes this flop at all.

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Jeez J7 probably calls that flop, KQ would beat you in the pot.

[sthief09]

doesn't matter. let's take an extreme case. he always bets or always calls with an A. it doesn't matter what you do if he has an A because you'll win the same amount. but throw in that he could call with K high or Q high. that favors checking. so clearly there's a balance somewhere, for how often he bets wiht A high

[Nate tha' Great]

Opponent had AJ. I checked and he checked behind.

This is one of those times when I had this Hellmuthian sense that he had exactly a hand like AJ or AT, and I get upset when I don't follow through on senses like those. More often, of course, I get the sense that I'm beat but call one or two more bets to get to showdown.