Bluffing the river?

[Jake (The Snake)]

This is a situation I routinely bluff on the river, where my opponent has passively called every single time. Is this correct?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[ThePimpulator]

No, you should not bet this. You describe your bet as a bluff. That means you think he has a better hand than a pair of threes. Think about it like that and do you then think there is any chance he is going to fold?

And if you feel "bluff" was the wrong word, then you are likely ahead anyway and can check and take the pot.

He is not going to call the river if he cannot beat a pair of threes. (Occasionally he'll have a two, but not often enough.) The only time he is calling is if he has a five or 66 or 99 or the like. And if that seven completed a straight for him or he made some other kind of draw he's raising you.

[Jake (The Snake)]

If I'm ahead, then he almost certainly will fold, and maybe rarely call with 2's or nothing. So let's say for worst case scenario that I'm certainly behind.

You don't think that 1 time out of 7.5 he will fold a better hand?

[ThePimpulator]

Well as with all situations its easier with a read, but I just cant see these 2/4 types folding a 5 here after calling on the turn. The sort of person that will fold the 5 on the river would never have called the turn in the first place unless they had some other kind of draw with it.

I really dont see a five being folded one time in 7.5. And that's if he has a five every time! Remember, many times he'll have a Q weak kicker or something like 99. And if he's called the turn he'll never fold the river with those. And probably rightly so.

That's my view. Of course if you had something like 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a busted flush with no pair the bet becomes more worth while.

[Jake (The Snake)]

He did have a 5 and called. I'm going to have to rethink this kind of play in the future as I think you are probably right: it seems unlikely they will call the turn but fold the river.

I think in the past I've used faulty reasoning thinking "hey, there's a good chance he has a missed diamond draw so I will bet." Obviously though, he's going to fold a missed draw and call with hands that beat me.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The sort of person that will fold the 5 on the river would never have called the turn in the first place unless they had some other kind of draw with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. There aren't many hands Hero can hope to drive out except maybe something like 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. And the chances that Villain holds a pair and a busted draw and will fold it probably aren't good enough.

[ QUOTE ]
Of course if you had something like 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a busted flush with no pair the bet becomes more worth while.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with you here, though. I don't think there's much point to betting against this hand, as Villain would have to be very loose to call. And while the chances of Hero encountering a checkraise that's a pure bluff aren't very high, the rare times that he does get checkraised by a worse hand would cost him the pot.