Push A7 here?

[TheAmp]

Hi all,
This hand is from a 50+5 at party. small blind min raised in a steal position. I am the BB with A7s. until that spot he played a typical party poker game for this buy in (too loose). my thinking was "this is a push or fold situation". I had some folding equity and a hand with reasonable winning chances. on the other hand, the small blind had the chips to call, thus my folding equity is reduced, and might not justify the push.

how do you approach this situation?

would you consider calling and pushing later?

Thanks,
S.J.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2170)
MP (t2101)
Button (t1208)
SB (t3051)
Hero (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1470 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t1070.

Flop: (t2940) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2940) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2940) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2940

[stripsqueez]

i could fold in this spot but it would be very rare - i think pushing is the best plan - calling and deciding what to do when you see the flop is a horrible plan with the blinds this high and your stack this low

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[curtains]

Very easy allin here. Your hand is likely to be best, and there is a chance the SB will fold.

[Bigwig]

I think it's close.

But, your read on him makes it a push, IMO.

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm not giving an opinion on your move here.

But I think this represents a great hand where you have no FE against SB (Big Stack). I would prefer to do battle with stacks that I do have FE against. IMO, whatever Big Stacks hand is, the probability of a call is very high. Furthermore, IMO, A7 definately looks like a coinflip or a dominated hand.

Is this where you want to put your tourney life on a coinflip?

[The Yugoslavian]

IMHO, you have more FE here than you think Scuba.

Still, is it enough? My gut says probably no, but I haven't run any #s with even a smallish FE %. The pot odds are just too good for the SB here. Added to the fact that this is how many 55ers would play monsters, I would fold here and get ready to open push (yeeehhhhaw!).

Yugoslav
Perhaps my biggest leak is that I always do the opposite of what curtains does, /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[Irieguy]

When assessing your folding equity for this hand, you need to look at more than just how much the SB would have to call if you push. Since this is a $55, the chance that he would change his mind about how much he likes his hand after you act is much less than it would be at the lower limits. The reverse gap concept is not as prevalent here.

If he has a hand that he is willing to race with, he is not likely to min-raise here. He'll just put you all-in and be content to either take the blinds or race.

So he doesn't like his hand. The problem is, he may love his hand. The min-raise may be bait, especially if you have given him reason to believe that you are a "pusher."

But you have to weigh in the chances that if he wanted to bait you with a monster, he'd walk it. This chance would be higher if the blinds were a bit bigger... but it still is a factor.

So the most likely scenario is that he doesn't like his hand, and he doesn't love his hand. In spite of the pot odds, you have a fair amount of folding equity. As a bonus, you aren't completely dead against many of monsters he could be peddling here. People tend to push their bigger aces on and near the bubble... so if he has an Ace, you're a favorite to have him dominated.

But the most compelling reason to push here is that you have the worst position possible relative to the big stack with regard to future folding equity. He gets to act immediately before the chip dog (you), which is perfect for him, acceptable for the middle stacks and horrible for you. You need to change the face of this SNG... and now's your chance.

Irieguy

[TheAmp]

Thanks a lot everybody.
Great stuff to think about...
S.J.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not giving an opinion on your move here.

But I think this represents a great hand where you have no FE against SB (Big Stack). I would prefer to do battle with stacks that I do have FE against. IMO, whatever Big Stacks hand is, the probability of a call is very high. Furthermore, IMO, A7 definately looks like a coinflip or a dominated hand.

Is this where you want to put your tourney life on a coinflip?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if SB is at all good, he either has a monster big pair, or he's planning on folding to an all-in, otherwise he should just put Hero all-in. Now, that is definitely a caveat that is often not true, but just a thought. That said, I think this is a pretty close call, hinging on how likely it is that SB will fold, b/c if he calls you are a small favorite or a huge dog, and those arent the type of options that make me all warm and fuzzy on the inside.