Another button hand

[Nottom]

Party $50+5 NL SNG

Stakes before posting blinds.

UTG - $4095
CO - $2040
Hero (SB) - $1935
BB $1930

Blinds(150/300)

Reads: UTG has been somewhat passive, but has picked up his aggression over the last few hands with good success. CO has been stealing fairly often making it hard for me to play. BB was the chipleader for a while but has been way to passive on the bubble.

Hero is dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG raises [1900].
CO folds.
Hero ???

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Party $50+5 NL SNG

Stakes before posting blinds.

UTG - $4095
CO - $2040
Hero (SB) - $1935
BB $1930

Blinds(150/300)

Reads: UTG has been somewhat passive, but has picked up his aggression over the last few hands with good success. CO has been stealing fairly often making it hard for me to play. BB was the chipleader for a while but has been way to passive on the bubble.

Hero is dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG raises [1900].
CO folds.
Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. You look down and see a pretty good hand, one you'd *love* to raise allin from the SB to limpers and/or vs. BB so you have plenty of FE and a good hand.

I think the break even ICM here is that you need to win 63% of the time to make it worth calling (simplifying by assuming the BB folds in all cases.

Fold: .2135 EV
Call and lose: 0 EV
Call and win: .3378 EV

winEV x win% = foldEV + loseEV
win% = ~63

You won't have that much of an edge on average here unless the villian's pushing with any two. I'd fold.

Note: I did not take into account chips that could be stolen from having the big stack if you call and win.

Yugoslav

[ChrisV]

Really, REALLY close. Not quite a good enough hand, but you're in the awkward situation of having your button steal be vs the big stack and having the guy directly to your right stealing vs you all the time. There's also the point that you become the big stack if you win and can start bullying the table.

I don't think I like it though. I think the game plan from here is to hammer the passive BB. Fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

Hmmmm, if you like to play cards, call. If you're interested in maximizing ROI, fold.

[curtains]

I fold.