Extremely Successful Player Raises EVERY hand...

[Gregg777]

There is an extremely successful player (higher limits), that raises every single hand he plays. He rarely limps, maybe once every 5000 hands, but that is it.

He is not Tight Aggressive, he raises a lot of marginal hands, even early.

He is one of the most successful players at the medium to high limits on this particular site.

Any thoughts?

Cheers

[Francis]

[ QUOTE ]
There is an extremely successful player (higher limits), that raises every single hand he plays. He rarely limps, maybe once every 5000 hands, but that is it.

He is not Tight Aggressive, he raises a lot of marginal hands, even early.

He is one of the most successful players at the medium to high limits on this particular site.

Any thoughts?

Cheers

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know? Seriously, have you watched him for several hundred hands? 1 in 5000 limps? That would imply this successful player is either you or someone you've followed for months.

I don't play high stakes, but I'd assume the other players would get wise to his play pretty quickly, and punish him with their premium hands when he raises with mediocre hands.

I know aggression is good, but aggression 100% of the time just gets you picked off by the rest of the table...

Regards,
Francis

[TALLBrad]

I've seen guys online that only have a raise button. Every decision to them is RAISE. After about 2 orbits everybody figures it out and then it takes about 20-30 minutes to collect their buy-in.

[TStoneMBD]

if its shorthanded limping is almost always wrong

[ThePinkBunny]

It is very likely that a highly successful player at the high limits would appear to have this strategy.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
It is very likely that a highly successful player at the high limits would appear to have this strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

how so?

[Gregg777]

Francis,

Ha, ha. If it was me do you think I would bring up the topic? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I have played 8,360 hands with him in the past 2-3 months. He has limped twice, hence about once every 5,000 times. You can't assume those two limps were any type of strategy, I think he was just messing around.

Francis & TALLBrad,

Regarding your comments about raising every hand, I am sorry, I did not mean he raised every hand, I said he raised every hand he played, big difference.

However, his VPIP is 40%. For someone raising every hand they play this is incredible in my opinion, because you know they have to be raising quite a bit or trash hands to get to 40%.

Regarding a couple of comments about getting run over, again, this guy is easily one of the most successful players. If I sort my history by amount won or BB/100 he is always in the top 5 for both. There are many tight players that can get in the top 5 for money won, but their BB/100 is pretty low. This guy is right at the top for both.

TStoneMBD,

Yes, he has an affinity for short handed play and is extremely successful at it, but I don't like short handed as much so my data is primarily with 7-10 players. However, if we are playing at a full table and there is a shorter table, he will leave and go to the short table. Several times the table fills up and I switch over to it for one reason or another and as a rule he has won quite a bit. I would hate to see his winning and BB/100 for short handed...

ThePinkBunny

Can you elaborate? I am tight aggressive and raise about 75% of the time, but my VPIP is only 17%-18%, so it is not hard to do. But for someone with a VPIP of 40% I just can't figure it out.

If I had to take a stab at it I would say two things. First, because it is high limit, he has a greater fold equity, so his strategy is more successful than at a lower limit where he would get more callers and get drawn out. Second, I think even though it is online, he plays the player as much as his cards. In other words, I think he is comfortable raising Qxs on the button and trying to bluff a single opponent off the pot based on their actions.

Thoughts or comments?

Cheers

[thenlguru]

Hi,

Your correct about your assumptions. Im not a fixed limit holdem, but friend of play the ladbrokes 200/400 and 300/600 fixed limit tables there(max 6ppl) and usually couple of them. He has pretty close to those numbers.. And actually there is couple other very good players who play that way. The worst part in that style it increases swings much. Like you can lose 50bb in couple of hours.

And the biggest thing when playing that style is to read your opponents very good.

Peace.

-Johan

[Gregg777]

Sorry I didn't specify, this is No Limit.

[thenlguru]

Ok then it makes even more sense, i play myself PL omaha(max 40/80) and NL holdem and in 6handed game my numbers are close to that.

[Francis]

Greg, [ QUOTE ]
Regarding your comments about raising every hand, I am sorry, I did not mean he raised every hand, I said he raised every hand he played, big difference.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I misunderstood, I thought you meant raised PF every hand.

Interesting. I'll follow this thread to see if I can learn something. I'd assumed someone being so ultra agressive would get busted in short order, but apparrantly not. I'm still the one in the kiddie pool, so I'll shut up and read. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Gregg777]

Thanks for the reply Guru, that helps /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I am fairly new to the higher limits, so forgive me if my assumptions are just poker 101 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I only win about 3 BB/100 right now and I am trying to increase it by adjusting to a more aggressive style at the higher limits.

Regarding my assumption about his being willing to play marginal hands like Qxs in late position, the raise actually helps him out a great deal in reading his opponents, yes?

Obviously it reduces the number of holdings, but it also allows him to get a much better read on his opponent for the particular hand.

For example, above a couple of people said they would call him with premium hands and bust him. But let's say you limped from EP with AK, and he raised 4BB on the button (you and 1 other limper in front), which knocked out the limper and the blinds, while you call.

At NL 5/10, this would put the pot at $115. Whereas if there had been 3 limpers and the BB, (SB folded), it would have only been $45 in the pot.

The flop comes J38 and you know the button might have anything, so pot betting without a decent hand out of position would be extremely difficult.

Say everyone checks and the turn is a blank, you and 2nd player check, the button pot bets. He might have something, might not, but you are much less likely to call the $115 than $45 on the turn with just ace high, correct?

Let's change the hands. Say you have KQs from MP. You know it is extremely likely he has Ax on the button, so you really can't call a bet on the river if you don't hit anything, correct? (He loves Ax on the button).

So his strategy clarifies his opponent's holdings, and clarifies their strength on any given flop. If you make a weak bet he is coming over the top, many times with nothing. I know because he loves showing his play.

One note about this though, he comes over the top with nothing much more often when his opponent is the one who raised preflop. If he raised preflop and his opponent called, and then his opponent raised on the flop, he gives them much more credit and does not try to be as tricky.

Hopefully my description does not make him sound like a wreckless LAG, he is far from it. Many times people don't give him credit for a hand and he doubles up.

He does not simply raise every chance he gets. Although he doesn't call much, he does check quite a bit, either to get more info or trying to hit something.

Also, knowing how frequently he raises, it also makes it more difficult for players to try and limp in front with marginal hands because they know there is a good chance of a raise.

Does any of this sound close? Am I on the right track? Any tips? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[thenlguru]

You are on right track. One of the best parts of playing loose is that it give you lot od advertise-value. But what is extremely important in this style is to learn pick-up your opponents betting-patterns, so you can sometimes be 100% sure by betting the pot you get the pot without contest.

So three important things:
- Reading your opponent well.
- POSITION
- Making sure you get good value with your actually good holdings.

You might wanna look in ultimatebet 25/50nl for mahatma/spirit rock and in prima high NL games for Dared and Grandiose.

Those three are best examples how to use this style very well.

Good luck with your game!

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Gregg777]

Thanks for the replies Guru, your input has been extremely helpful.

There is one last question that really has me stumped though.

When this guy's VPIP is over 40%, I would expect to see a much higher percentage of marginal hands in his statistics, yet I really don't. There are a few, so I know he does it, but not as many as the VPIP would indicate.

For example, when I look at his known hands on the button, except for Ax, they really follow the same pattern as most of the tighter players: AA-22, AK-A9, KQ-K9, QJs-76s, and a few medium one gappers.

How is that? Occassionally his trash would have to hit, so it should show up. There are winning players as high as 55% VPIP and their holdings are similar. Where are they getting the hands? What are they doing with them? How can they just raise that trash and then throw it away and still be such a winning player?

The only thing I can guess is that they are trying to break even on marginal hands without ever showing. Which obviously gives them more action on their better hands.

Is that about right? Trying to break even or a bit ahead on trash hands without ever showing? I can't get the percentages to add up any other way.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, knowing how frequently he raises, it also makes it more difficult for players to try and limp in front with marginal hands because they know there is a good chance of a raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

So in other words his style forces others to either play more correctly (not limping in with a marginal hand) or have the opportunity to reraise him with their premium hands( the result is him being forced off his hand).

Hmmmmmmm.........

[Gregg777]

Wakeup,

If he could play a raised pot against only premium hands while he is on the button, he would take that all day, every day.

As far as raising with premium hands, I have played thousands of hands with him, if you don't have AA or KK, my money is on him every time. How often is he going to be up against AA or KK? In terms of percentages, he is way ahead.

And the few times you do reraise with AA or KK, he is a very smart player and will get out of the way with certain hands, but will stay in and bust you with PPs and suited connectors when possible.

I think he really loves your reraises, it nails you down pretty tightly, which he then uses to his advantage.

The trick with this guy is you can't analyze any single aspect and apply it to general poker theory. It is his overall game that makes him so successful, which is what I am trying to figure out /images/graemlins/wink.gif For some players forcing other players to play better hands would be a bad thing, but he works it to his advantage...

Again, this guy is one of the highest winning players both in amount won and BB/100. So he knows what he is doing. He knows what most of us are doing, lol.

[AngryCola]

Your sample size is too small. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Gregg777]

I have 40,000+ hands over a 6 month period on the person in question. And the win rate and BB/100 is the same. My comment about 8,300 hands was in reference to answering a specific question about him only limping twice. In that case I was using the hands I had personally played with him. Having said that, I do not know of any other times he limped in the other 35,000 hands /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[scotty34]

If you knew he was raising with marginal hands, and you had a premium hand, would it not be better to just push PF to his raise? This does not give him any opportunity to outplay you post flop. Overall this should leave you as a net winner. You can begin to notice which hands he will fold, and which ones he will call with, and that will start to give you a better idea of what he is going to play, and what you should push against him with. I don't really know much at all about higher limits, so I could be way off base. Maybe people aren't as willing to put that much into a pot PF, but in a lower limit game, if I saw a guy with 40% VP$IP that raised every time, I would throw my $25 or so in everytime with ATo, TT, KJs etc, and probably come out a net winner.

[Lawrence Ng]

Could you post a screenshot including his PFR % please?

Thanks

Lawrence

[Gregg777]

Scotty,

High stakes is a completely different game than low stakes. He will have position on you most of the time. If you play those hands out of position against a smart high stakes player you are going broke fast.

Lawrence,

Here are his VPIP and PF raise numbers:

VPIP: 41.31
VP From SB: 52.14
Won $ WSF %: 45.92
BB/100: 18.37
Went To SD%: 25.47
Won @ SD%: 49.97
PF Raise%: 30.23
Saw Flop Not A Blind: 25.80%

You can see he not only raises every hand not a blind, but also a good percentage of the blinds...

[SlowStroke]

Over the years I have seen many of these players. Hyper aggressive, running all over the table, sitting behind a mountain of chips.

It seems to go on day after day, I marvel at how they do it. I start thinking - maybe I should try that style, they really seem to be on to something.

Then I come in one day, and they are gone. I start asking around and find out that they owe money to everyone. They had to quit this poker room because they finally ran out of people to borrow money from.

Meanwhile, the old rocks are still there, year after year. Everyone makes fun of the rocks, how easy they are to read, how easy they are to bluff. And of course, how they refuse to loan money to anyone.

In the long run Clark Kent gets the money and Superman goes broke.

[Gregg777]

Slowstroke,

I know what you are saying, but your theory is for those players who you never really know their bankroll status. Anyone with the hand history knows how much he makes.

(There are sites you can datamine the hand histories 24 hours a day. And at the high stakes levels, this can be done very easily.)

To use your analogy, this guy is Clark Kent AND Superman, a lot of brains along with his braun. Much moreso than the typical LAG which is easier to win against.

Being a rock works very well in certain types of games and at certain levels, but you will get run over or eaten up by the blinds on others.

Rocks are great in a fish tank, but bad news on a race track /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[SlowStroke]

Good points.

I'm just saying that I have never seen one who could last more than a few months.

You said his BB/100 is 18.37 which is so high that I suspect your sample size is very small. How many hands are in your database?

[Gregg777]

Slow Stroke,

I have millions of hands in my DB. In regards to the player in question, the 18 BB/100 is for the 8,300 hands I played against him. His overall BB/100 is 13.89 for 45,000 hands, which is still very high considering the limit and his style of play.

This thread has regressed to questioning the validity of the statistics at this point, while two high stakes players have already stated it was within reason, so there is nothing more to gain from it.

Cheers

[Seether]

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts?


[/ QUOTE ]
Stop slobbing his knob? I swear you made him sound like he is a poker god who wins every hand. I love your comment where if you play premimum hands out of position against him he will always out play you. Come on man, stop being such a groupie.

[Sully]

Millions of hands in your database? That is just plain ridiculous.

[happyjaypee]

[ QUOTE ]
Millions of hands in your database? That is just plain ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible whit shared HH database btw.

-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Gregg777]

Seether,

Haha, that's funny. I didn't say he would beat anyone with premium hands, I was replying to someone who is obviously not a high stakes player and mentioned that just by playing premium hands he could win. THAT particular player, out of position, would lose. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I am not being a groupie, you try this strategy on medium or lower limits and you will go broke instantly. I have recently moved up to high stakes (2-3 months) and was looking for advice on how he does it.

Sully,

I import over 15,000 hands a day. Start counting /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Since people keep pushing this silly thread I will try to add some useful information...

NL Guru said to look at Mahatma's info. Mahatma does pretty much the same thing. He raises just about every hand he plays that is not a blind, and he raises a good percentage of his blinds. You can read all over 2+2 that Mahatma is considered one of the best, most aggressive players, so there you go...

However, on full ring tables (7-10 players), his VPIP is much closer to mine, in fact, it is slightly lower than mine. This makes much more sense. He is coming in with premium hands and being very aggressive with them.

But again, the difference between Mahatma and the "Other Guy" remains the same. Mahatma's BB/100 for full ring games is really low, while his BB/100 for short handed and heads up is higher. But his BB/100 is still not as high as the player in question.

So that puts me right back to my original point, how can someone so loose have such a high BB/100?

I don't have every hand he plays and he has a high variance, so I probably just missed a lot of his beats.

Just let it go at that guys /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[CHiPS]

Greg - Something you said caught my eye - You can sort all the players on a particular site and find out their win rate as # of Big Blinds/100 hands ? How did you do that - what site ? I'd love to know where I stand compared to other players.

I like to be agressive at no Limit, but not this agressive. I was thinking of moving to a low stakes No Limit game and just trying an ultra-agressive strategy - but the problem is that at low limits its just not the same because calling $10 is not the same as calling $500.