LA Poker Classic $1500 NL - JJ Disaster getting down to the wire

[Scooterdoo]

A little background. Last Night LA Poker Classic $1,500 NL buy-in event. About 350-400 entrants. Pays top 27, but I'm not really interested in JUST making it into the money. Won a few $180 satellites so am freerolling in this and future tournaments in the series too.

Tournament starts at 3:30. Draw seat 1, table 1, which seems like a good sign (although I hate seat 1, and since my table will never get broken up I have to live with it for the full duration). Get off to a slow start when my opponent draws to his two outer on the river and takes about 2/3rds of my stack early on. Manage to slowly build back my stack and thanks to a few fortunate hands I get to the top of the chip count about 10 hours into it with about $26k in chips. For quite a while I'm the overwhelming leader at my table and manage to keep things under control. Kena James gets moved to my table with about an equal number of chips and immediately doubles up in two hands -- one time against AA when he catches a straight on the river (he had a flush draw too) so now he has a massive lead and I need to be careful. He takes a bit from me and then I bluff off $4k to a rag flop when three of us see it cheap and I get raised all-in by another player (also well-known pro).

Anyway, here's the hand. We're down to about 50 players and I have gotten down to about $18k. I'm still above average -- not by that much though -- and I'm 3rd in chips at my table, but most of the table has at least 10k. A new player has just moved to our table with aabout $22k and he's next to me to my right. Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante. He's in early position and makes it about 2k to go. I look down at JJ. I should know by now to muck it given that I've been knocked out of two big tournaments late with this hand (and soon to be 3!).

I'll go into the details of what I did and why, but first I am curious what others would do in this situation. The table is pretty aggressive with 4 seasoned pros. I have an aggressive image at the table too, although I have layed down hands to big bets (and I've also come over the top many times and forced others to lay down hands). I don't know the new player and he doesn't know me. The $2k opening raise is pretty standard at this table. So the only thing I know at this point is:

1) my opponent is in early position and has come in with a standard raise
2) there is $3500 in the pot. There are quite a few people left to act (8 handed) and if I limp there is a very high probability that there will be callers behind me or the pot will be re-raised.

Thoughts?

[ace_in_the_hole]

If your trying to win this tourney, I would say push, If your more into laying low and slipping intot he money, fold. My 2 cents, but I have never played a big tourney like that live so I might not be the best person for advice.

[Scooterdoo]

My only interest is making it to the final table.

[TheJackal]

I think its a fold, I mean I guess you could flat-call his raise, but with 7 people behind you left to act if someone re-raises you are probably beat and have just lost 2k when you bite your lip and fold the hand. I don't really think you can re-raise either, you might already be beat by UTG (if he moves all in, would you call him?), not to mention the people left behind you to act. I think if your position were say the button or CO, you could probably play this hand, but I think your position this hand really puts you in a tough spot for pocket jacks.

[sammysusar]

i think a flat call might be the best play. since you dont know the player an early position raise could mean a monster. you still have enough chips to play if something goes wrong.
Pushing all in is not bad either. Against the majority of players they probably fold to reraise unless they have aa kk.
There are some rockish type players in these tourneys that only raise with big hands from early position.
You also might be destined to lose all your chips no matter how you play it.

[sammysusar]

i could see folding although i still would say flat call with an avg stack (maybe fold with bigger stack). against an unknown opponent is very difficult to play. patience is not my strength/

[skoal2k4]

ugh... I hate JJ when someone in EP raises. I'll throw in my 2 cents, but you are obviously a better player than I am given the limits you play. I call the raise, but fold to any other raise from the remaining players PF. On the flop, I look for either a set or overpair. If I get one of those, I push.

Thoughts?

[BlackAces]

[ QUOTE ]
ugh... I hate JJ when someone in EP raises. I'll throw in my 2 cents, but you are obviously a better player than I am given the limits you play. I call the raise, but fold to any other raise from the remaining players PF. On the flop, I look for either a set or overpair. If I get one of those, I push.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like the postflop play at all. If I hit a set, I'm not pushing with it...why would I want to scare someone away? And if you're going to push if you flop an overpair, you may as well have pushed before the flop, because you're likely to get called by the same set of hands as you would preflop. Any overpair to yours is not going to lay down. The only hand that's going to lay down is AK, and do you really want to force someone with a 6-outer out of the hand?

Preflop, I think it's a fold. Against an unknown player, you're behind too often and not enough of a favourite often enough to push all-in, and unless you flop a set or an ace or king comes, it's going to be very hard to know where you are postflop if you call. A reraise would eat up too many of your chips, and you're likely to just get rereraised all-in by someone out of position, putting you in the same spot as pushing would.

But then, I'm a tightass who's pushed with JJ only to see AA too many times.

[skoal2k4]

Perhaps my line of thinking is why I'm still in the peon level of MTT's /images/graemlins/grin.gif

But this type of situation is exactly why I hate JJ. It seems like it should be a solid hand, but more often than not, it's only 2nd best. It is with me anyway

[Scooterdoo]

So here's what I went through:

a) I could fold, but I have never folded JJ to a standard raise before (I guess I need to learn this move!)

b) I could call, but what then? There will likely be a few other callers if two of us are in already and I'll lose position. Plus, what am I hoping for? I'm not going to spend $2k to try and flop a set. Sure if Q-A doesn't come on the flop I can play it strong, but then I'm still in trouble if the first guy had AA or KK and will lose all of my chips (see reasons for pushing). I guess this was one way of slowing down and potentially re-assessing my situation and my opponent's strength since I'll have position on the flop against him. However, JJ is a good hand and each orbit is costing me $1.5k so I don't necessarily want to lose an opportunity. Didn't like this at all, but maybe it would have been the safe play if I really didn't want to fold.

c) I could raise to see how much my opponent liked his hand. How much? I would probably need to raise at least 4-5k to get him to give up his hand, but even that might not be enough if he has AK, certainly not QQ. So basically I could risk 6-7k (his 2k, plus my raise) to find out where I stand, but then I'm basically committed to the pot anyway. I guess I could fold to an all-in re-raise, but that leaves me in really bad shape. I didn't see how I could raise.

d) push. If he has AA or KK he'll call for sure, maybe AK, and perhaps, but not likely QQ. I don't mind getting called by AK with a chance to take the tournament chip lead, and of course I do not want to see AA-QQ. He could very well have AK, AQ, AJ, AT, TT-77 and I get him to give up all of those hands with my push. I win 3.5k by doing this. If I'm called I'm dead given that the only hands other than AK where he likely calls have me dominated. I did push and he did turn over AA and I didn't improve, so now I'm trying to re-evaluate the move.

Thinking of it now it doesn't seem to make much sense to risk the tournament for 3.5k which is really the best case scenario. So I was probably best off folding, although a call is a possibility (it would have gotten me knocked out too because the flop came up rags so I probably would have lost all of my chips sooner or later).

Is my thinking faulty? What's the best way to play this?

[vicpanic]

Unknown player, raises UTG at a table with three pros. and you're UTG+1?

Fold.

[suited_ace]

That's a very tough spot. I'd say it's a fold.

1. You have no information on the new guy. He could be raising with about anything.

2. There are 7 players left to act. They could have a strong hand too. If any player sees the flop with you two, you'd be in a very tough spot. The only good thing here is that I wouldn't think they would push unless they had a VERY strong hand, because they too don't know the new guy and they would have seen you push or cold call his raise.

3. There's a VERY good chance that if you push you'll get yourself in a coinflip situation. I don't see why you'd want to do it in this spot, even more when you could be in a coinflip with more than one player.

Just my .02. You are a far better player than me, but that's what I think.

[Chief911]

Scooter,

Glad to see you made it so deep. Wish I could have taken you up on that offer to bum a room. =)

That's a very rough situation. I'd probably be tempted to either call or raise. Except you hate to call off 10% of your stack knowing you'll prolly have to fold to a raise. And even if its a rags flop, you aren't sure if you are ahead.

I would say if its caused you great trauma, fold it. Otherwise I'd probably call here.

Nick

[adanthar]

I really don't like this push, but does anyone like a call with the intention of calling a push behind you if UTG folds?

If we wind up heads up, I think I look at his bet size before I decide what to do, even on a raggedy flop. I may very well just call the flop and fold the turn even if it is favorable, because if he's any good he's not going to bluff off a large chunk of his stack into a UTG+1 cold caller. I can also raise his 2-3K bet to 6K and fold to a push, call and then raise the turn/check the river, etc. All of these leave you with more than enough chips to maneuver at the end of the hand.

But I *really* hate pushing. If you have him on AA-TT, AK it is intuitively not worth it.

[Scooterdoo]

I wish you could have come too. There is a 2.5k on Wednesday if you can get out... so the offer is still good! I certainly thought about calling or raising, but neither seemed appealing. A raise would basically put me in a tough spot if he re-raised and then what do I do on the flop if an A-Q comes. Also, my thought was that a raise would be like a push since if he had one of the 2/3 hands he would call the raise with AA-QQ, I would still be screwed on the rag flop, so why not try to just get him out with the push. The call also didn't seem appealing given that I would also be in a tough bind if a) there were callers behind me and I was pretty sure given the pot odds someone would do it; and/or b) he bet the flop strong.

Thinking about it now, fold was probably the best option. There are lots of easier ways of getting 3.5k without risking my entire stack against an unknown utg raiser. Oh, well. I was still one of the dominant stacks at the table and could steal some blinds once or so an orbit. And of course there's still plenty of time to get a good hand IN POSITION. Live and learn. Unfortunately I don't seem to learn. If you remember, over-playing JJ is also what got me busted out a few tables from the money at the 2k Bellagio event a few months ago. That time I clearly overplayed it. This time it was a bit more debatable how I played it. Same outcome though (then I ran into KK).

[Scooterdoo]

Another interesting hand. An Asian women sits down 3 to my left after 5-6 hours. I think she is a pro based on her conversations with some of the other pros at the table, but I didn't know her. She has about the same stack as me. A hand or two after she sits down she makes a standard raise against me and I re-raise her and she pushes. I call with AK. She calls and turns over AK and we chop. A few hands later I'm in the BB (200-400 with 25 ante) and she raises from early position to 500 and it's folded to me. We both have around 6-7kish. I had 8d9d. Thought about folded, which was the obvious choice, but then I decided to see the flop for another 300 (I'm getting decent odds) and since she probably has high cards or an overpair I have a chance to suck out on her with a ragged or suited flop. The flop comes something like 4TK with two diamonds. I decided that this was a good opportunity to take a stand and play it aggressively with a push. She likely missed the flop with AQ, AJ or she could have a pair under a king and she will fold. The only hands I feel she will call with that she's likely to have are AA, KK or AK and just maybe QQ or JJ if she's very aggressive and reads me as weak. However, given my expectation of the range of hands she will fold with and the fact that I still have a 35% chance of getting the flush, the move makes sense.

So I push, she calls with AK and I hit my flush. She's livid and starts ranting about my move. Most of the players at the table are coming to my defense, but she keeps on ranting and mutters that she will give me a million dollars if I win. Too bad I couldn't claim the money!

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Well, I would never fold JJ to a single standard raise, even from UTG, unless I knew the player really well and they are a total rock.

So, that leaves calling or raising. Calling is OK, as you will have position, and it will seem like an odd call. In other words, many people will start thinking "He's slowplaying AA", and this will slow them down a bit if they do have you beat. So, although other players may come in behind you, I would expect them to have fit-or-fold hands, such as small pairs. Overall, I wouldn't worry about them, and be prepared to play for all your chips if the flop is raggedy and below the JJ.

If I were going to raise, my standard reraise would be 6K, but that is 1/3 of my stack, so reraising all-in instead is definitely an option. If you do raise to 6K, do NOT fold to the all-in by UTG. He could still easily have AK, and you can't afford to fold there getting a bit over 2:1 on the call where you could easily be a favorite. It is going to take a great read before you can fold to that re-reraise.

Summary. Without being there, I'm not 100% sure which choice I make, but folding is definitely NOT my pick. That's the road to ruin, the weak-tight play that means you're certain to be blinded out of this event without ever making a serious push for the prize. Even though in this case, as it turns out, folding was the best choice against this person's hand, in the long run it would be a terrible mistake.

Just think about the players who have done great in tourneys lately. Do you think Daniel or Gus or me or Men are going to lay down here to 1 raise with JJ?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[IgorSmiles]

I appreciate your opinion Fossilman. What I'm wondering though, is if you are ready to push preflop, and you are ready to play for all your chips if the flop comes ragged, how can you ever get away from an overpair?

[West]

With the blinds being what they are, chip stacks being what they are, your position, etc, he's saying that, absent some great read or knowledge of the raiser, you don't.

[Tyler Durden]

I have to wonder how many of these posters that say fold would actually be mucking in the heat of the moment.

I think you should reraise to 8500 or so, it's half your stack and your opponent will probably realize that you're committed to this pot.

[Jibbs]

I think I would probably flat call here and consider getting away from it if there is a raise or push from a stack behind. I'm sure this seems weak/tight but I wake up with cold-sweats from nightmares about JJ. I've had the same trouble as you apparently are with them lately.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I would never fold JJ to a single standard raise, even from UTG, unless I knew the player really well and they are a total rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds pretty good. I can't see myself folding this either. I vote for call and take a flop with position. Stacks are way too shallow IMO to get away from this, unless the opponent was really uncreative and rockish.

[ QUOTE ]
If I were going to raise, my standard reraise would be 6K, but that is 1/3 of my stack, so reraising all-in instead is definitely an option. If you do raise to 6K, do NOT fold to the all-in by UTG. He could still easily have AK, and you can't afford to fold there getting a bit over 2:1 on the call where you could easily be a favorite. It is going to take a great read before you can fold to that re-reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this mean you are just better off going all-in if you choose to raise? I hate a situation like this when you are against a very good/tricky UTG raiser. If you raise to 6k, you are a lot more pot committed than you would be if you had just flat called, if your opponent chooses to call the raise. In this spot, often I feel like the UTG will have the advantage postflop. The opponent can probably put you on a range of hands like AA-JJ, because most situations in an NL tournament would support moving all in before the flop with AK or AQ because a lot of the value of those hands come with seeing all 5 cards.

So if the flop comes Axx or Kxx, a tricky UTG player may push you off the best hand, unless you have a gangsta call inside you.

[ QUOTE ]
Summary. Without being there, I'm not 100% sure which choice I make, but folding is definitely NOT my pick. That's the road to ruin, the weak-tight play that means you're certain to be blinded out of this event without ever making a serious push for the prize. Even though in this case, as it turns out, folding was the best choice against this person's hand, in the long run it would be a terrible mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Dont be results oriented. Crappy players and posters are ones who respond with crap like "JJ and AK are such bad hands because I always go bust... yadda yadda yadda". Assuming your UTG was not some tight ass rock, your all in with JJ is fine. Chalk it up to short stacks, its what I do when I bust in a spot like this. You just are not there with 100+bb stacks so you cant really pick and choose your spots that much.

[ QUOTE ]
Just think about the players who have done great in tourneys lately. Do you think Daniel or Gus or me or Men are going to lay down here to 1 raise with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

This argument is kinda lame, but whatever, your greg raymer and I'm jason strasser. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Jason

p.s. Greg I shortly followed you out in that 1k sng. You had the privelege of getting horrible beated, and I just got crushed.

[Scooterdoo]

Thanks for the reply. My thinking at the time was very similar to what you're saying in the post and I chose push since it seemed like the better option since it would get some hands to fold that would beat me later on like QQ or AK or a smaller pair that caught a set, but I would lose either way to AA or KK if rags flopped.

The point I made in this thread that I probably would have been better folding was not made because I'm a weak-tight player, to the contrary if I have a problem I'm actually too aggressive. My thinking was that I risk here all of my chips (there was only one stack bigger than me at the table and the guy who knocked me out was about even) going against one of the few opponents at the time who could knock me out for only 3.5k when given the blind sizes I could often take the blinds/antes with a lot less risk as I had been doing -- going over the top of weak limpers or making positional raises with mediocre hands. Of course I could also catch a monster (pre or post flop) and really get things going. So in summary, the risk of pushing/raising just doesn't appear to be worth it. Calling would be okay, and regardless of what I say I doubt it if I would ever fold JJ to a standard raise <g>, although it does seem like a pretty good option when I think things through.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
Just think about the players who have done great in tourneys lately. Do you think Daniel or Gus or me or Men are going to lay down here to 1 raise with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was thinking. I know pros are able to make good laydowns that suckers like myself aren't... but I can't see a top player folding JJ to 1 standard raise in this spot.

I wouldn't push, though, with 8 players behind me yet to act. I'd call and see what kind of action there is behind me, and what kind of flop I get. 2K doesn't make me pot-committed and I can still get away from it if things take an unfavorable turn.

My feeling is that I am risking 1/9th of my stack. If no one reraises, and a J hits on the flop I'm probably doubling up. If I have an overpair and UTG checks or makes a weak bet I'd probably push and hope for the best at that point.

If my goal is to make the final table and not just slide into the money, it seems like a chance worth taking. But I play 40 dollar tournaments so what do I know?

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, I think it's a fold. Against an unknown player, you're behind too often and not enough of a favourite often enough to push all-in, and unless you flop a set or an ace or king comes, it's going to be very hard to know where you are postflop if you call. A reraise would eat up too many of your chips, and you're likely to just get rereraised all-in by someone out of position, putting you in the same spot as pushing would.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good advice here. I'm just thinking these three things:

1. I don't know this player, but it's late in the tourney, he's obviously played at the minimum decent poker to get here, and therefore I put him on AQ-AK or MAYBE 10's, but more likely JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Gotta respect that first position raise.
2. Against those hands, you can get a coinflip in which you are a slight favorite, but the times that your are dominated outweighs the times that you are coinflipping.
3. The number of folks left to act makes your hand worth less as well. If someone else wakes up with a monster, then your hand is even worse.

So I'd say it's an easy fold given this information.

Brad

[IgorSmiles]

I was hoping we'd hear back from the World Champ on this post. It sounds like Fossilman is saying with 30X BB you should be willing to go broke with Jacks, particularly if no overcard flops. This seems a little oversimplified to me.

[SossMan]

Scooter,
This is a tough decision because of your position. In LP, this is an easy call. In EP, all three options come into play depending on the raiser.

If you flat call, and everyone else folds the pot will be around t5500. You will have t16k left. If you get one more caller, the pot will be t7500.
I'm curious to think why you think that there is a "high probability" of people coming in behind you. You said that most stacks are in the 10k range. Do people routinely call a raise that has already been called for a fifth of their stack?
If it gets reraised anything more than the minimum, you can safely give credit for a bigger pair and fold. If someone minraises, you can call and play for set value.

Can you reraise? Well, you said that the raiser is aggressive. You are likely ahead of his range of hands (AK/AQ, AJs, AA-99, 10% more hands like 56s or 22).
If you push, he likely even folds AK, only calling with AA-QQ. Pushing is risking too much, I think, to win too little, not because of his hand range, but because you have 6 players left to act behind you who might wake up with a hand.

I like flat calling in this spot. I'm playing a ragged flop very carefully, though, realizing that he still is an UTG raiser and your call should alert him that you have a darn good hand.

-SossMan

[Tyler Durden]

The first dozen responses that say to fold are skewed by the tone of the post, since it seems like you busted w/ JJ here.