QTo.. OESD dragged for bets

[btspider]

First hand at the table. Debate the post if you want, but that's not the point of the hand. I only posted b/c UTG+2 is a near 90/0 LPP and MP1 posted in front. If MP3 posts aren't terrible, this isn't too bad for an MP2 post. So if its a mistake, its a small one (and *very* rare). postflop is much more important here.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $2. Hero posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, Hero (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Called closing the action in a huge pot.. looking for a big hand or draw.

Flop: (12.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

went for the overcall. all those stop-n-go's looks like Jx, maybe a boat trying to drag me for bets. the raise behind looks like KK..

Final Pot: 24.25 BB
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: 24.25 BB, between CO, UTG+1 and Hero.</font>

[foofighter]

When board is paired it usually means trouble if u hit your out which u did how can u like it much?

[Shillx]

If you play 300 table-sessions per month and everytime you started a new table you posted in MP2, you would lose about 40 BB per month. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I don't really see what you can do here post-flop. He might have AA, he might have KK but he might just be getting crazy with AK.

On the turn you are risking 2 BB to win roughly 16 BB. You will hit the nut straight 17.4% of the time. So not including the river action you need to be drawing live:

16(.174 - x) - 2(.826 + x) &lt;= 0
x = .063

So you need to be drawing live &gt; (.174-.063)/.174 = ~ 64% of the time. Is this the case?

Brad

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play 300 table-sessions per month and everytime you started a new table you posted in MP2, you would lose about 40 BB per month.

[/ QUOTE ]

the post was only due to these extreme circumstances. i think the other poster, the near guaranteed limper, etc, make it debateably neutral once the EV from the extra hands i see before the BB comes around is factored in.

so what about a flop fold ala SSH p. 278 question #13. can i hit and lose enough to kill my odds here?