Sucker straight at 2/4 Prima 6max

[Prevaricator]

6 players, both me and my opponent have roughly 500 chips. He has been playing alright, I don't really have a read. He seems solid, not overly LAG.

2/4 NL
I limp utg with 98c. folded to button, who makes it 16 to go. blinds fold and I call. The call preflop is fine because I feel comfortable playing against him even out of position, and with deep stacks, I could have huge implied odds.

Flop is Tc Js Qc Pot is 36 and change

I check, villian bets 20. This bet is suspicious, and I think is a likely candidate AK.

I raise to 60 anyway, instead of drawing for the flush.

He instantly moves all in. I fold.

SO basically my read is inconsistent. Is he betting 20 with AQ, KK, or AA? A set? I think with any of those hands he bets a lot more initially. So I should have called with the flush draw. As it stands, I can't do much to his push.

Comments? A lot of my college friends are not liking the fold, but I think its fine. Anyone lead out on the flop or just check call?

[kagame]

folding the near nuts with a sf redraw!

is this a joke? what more do you want to put your money in? you really think people make huge all in bets consistently with the nuts? guess that WOULD be read dependent...

my advice try assigning rough estimates of probabilities that your opponent could have various hands. For example if I was in your shoes on this hand against a Typical Doyles Room 3/6 NL player:

AQ: .25
KK: .1
AA: .05
QQ/JJ/TT: .4

That leaves a 20% chance theyd have AK, *shrugs*

[fsuplayer]

yeah at first i didnt see the flush draw.

if you really think he has AK, umm call? why shut yourself out if you are that confident in your read.

as it played out, he could easily have a set, and even for those time he has AK, you have plently of outs.

[Prevaricator]

I dont have 100% pot equity against a set, so that negates the redraws for AK. I don't see a non aggro player doing this without AK (and doing it with AK is a mistake too I believe).

[Prevaricator]

How are you getting a .25 chance of AQ and a .40 chance of QQ, JJ, TT.

That's bogus, he's not going that with TPTK. I could see KK, QQ JJ TT pushing the flop, but I think all of those hands, and especially KK makes it more than 20 to go initially. AK could conceivably play it by making 20 to go and then pushing to reraise, and I haven't seen this play from him once yet. I don't think you can just assign probabilities arbitrarily here; you could look at the % of total combinations for the range of hands, but AK will ahve more combinations than a set and its 440 to call into a pot ive only invested 76.

Also, for argument's sake, if I didn't have the flush draw, do you guys that advocate a call still think calling is good?

[AJo Go All In]

yikes.

[cwl]

if he has AK with no club then calling costs you about $56. if he has a set calling gains you $266. if he has AK with a 1 club calling costs you about $114. if he has AcKc then things suck. i think your underestimating the chances that he has a hand that will surprise you with its badness. for the most part people play poker badly. im not saying that you should call huge bets with marginal hands because of this but with a hand like yours, even when things are bad they just arent all that bad. the point though is that in this spot you match up well enough against his range of legit hands that its almost like you get a freeroll to see if he is playing like a clown. i would guess calling is +ev even if he is playing fairly reasonably and the added chances that he is not make this a definite call.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
and with deep stacks, I could have huge implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda like....if you flop the 2nd nuts w/ a flush draw you might get paid off huge.

[Prevaricator]

Thats not the point. I read him for AK. I have a second best hand. Doyle Brunson even talks about this in SuperSystem; if you have 89 and the flop comes TJQ, use extreme caution. That's why I'm thinking my raise on the flop was bad, and if I call, I just trapped myself with this hand.

By the way he showed red AK.

[Cornell Fiji]

There was 156 in the pot and you had 425 left so you are getting 2.6 to 1 when you would need 2.05 to 1 to call with only a flush draw. You would need to think your straight might be good and that it would hold up 8% of the time to make up the difference. Given that the range of hands that he would have when your straight was good you on the flop would beat you about 1 in 3 times you would need to think that he does not have AK or K9s less than 12% of the time here in order to make this call. The range of hands that he would go all in with are (KK-TT, AK, K9s - the chance he has this is slightly discounted but many people would raise this when folded to on the button, 89s.) There are 12 ways that he has a hand that you are ahead of but 40 ways that he has a hand that you are behind, you went with your read though and you were right. Nice hand.

-Steve

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way he showed red AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow i wasn't expecting you to say that.

why'd you post this hand?

[ipp147]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way he showed red AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

the turn was a club

[creedofhubris]

Look, even if your read is perfect, you are not losing much because you have the redraw to the flush to win and there's already a bit of money in the pot. But if you're wrong, and he has ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE STRAIGHT, you are making a tremendous error in folding.

Even if you think there's just a *25%* chance he has anything other than a straight, then it's worth moving in.

[theBruiser500]

"folding the near nuts with a sf redraw! " on this board with this action it is very bad to say he has "near nuts"

[theBruiser500]

cornell fiji when doing your odds did you take into account the fact that if prevaricator's straight is good, he's probably up against a set so his equity is lower than itmight be? prevaricator, i wouldn't say you have "deep stacks". i'd rather raise preflop then limp because with this hand you will check/fold too much so raise yourself and make him check/fold, but imo you don't lose much if anything by folding. i think you should do the equity calculations out, it is illuminating. this hand depend son the math but if the math is okay i can see foldind, this really looks like AK to me, i think people are overestimating the times he goes crazy with a worse hand. when he has a worst hand he's probably going to turn into a calling station and play it bad that way.