River bet w/under FH on 2xPaired Board [Archive]

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Vern

02-12-2005, 12:07 PM

Table is very nice, Friday night loose and passive, most hands see 5+ to a flop for a single bet.
UTG+1 is loose and somewhat aggressive, not tricky
MP1 is loose and passive
MP2 is tight and passive
MP3 is loose and passive
CO is loose passive
SB is loose and very aggressive pre-flop then turns passive/weak
BB is loose and passive

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
Props to Bison for his converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (24 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero ?

I was perplexed at finding a good line on the end. Any feedback on what to do, even just answering the poll, would be appreciated.

Any comments on any part of the hand are more than welcome.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 12:43 PM

Tough one. But I'll bet/fold. Against these loose/passives I will get called by any PP and probably even A-high pretty frequently. I'll rarely get check/raised, but if I am I think a fold is safe. I assume no one is stupid enough to check/rasie a flush /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Catt

02-12-2005, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tough one. But I'll bet/fold. Against these loose/passives I will get called by any PP and probably even A-high pretty frequently. I'll rarely get check/raised, but if I am I think a fold is safe. I assume no one is stupid enough to check/rasie a flush /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet and call one back. I totally agree that you'll get called by PP and an A that thinks he's splitting. I'd hate a C/R but still call it -- I only need to catch a stupid raise ~5% of the time to make calling correct -- more importantly for me, I probably have to quit playing for the night (if I'm prudent) if I fold and discover I had the best hand -- i.e., sanity call.

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd hate a C/R but still call it -- I only need to catch a stupid raise ~5% of the time to make calling correct

[/ QUOTE ]
The pot is bloody awfull big here. Maybe I would have to be awfully sure about my reads to be able to lay this down. You're probably right that I won't be able to do that.

bozlax

02-12-2005, 02:50 PM

I might have thrown this away PF or on the flop. I hate double-deuce. But, that wasn't the question, so...

Having come this far, in your position, I'm betting/calling-one-back, folding-more-than-one-back. For one bet, you have to win this 95%, for two bets you have to win 90%, for 3 bets you have to win 80% (numbers, of course, dependent on how many of the others stay in to the first raise, but they're close). With this many players, I don't think can push it to 80, but I think you're good at 90.

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For one bet, you have to win this 95%, for two bets you have to win 90%, for 3 bets you have to win 80%

[/ QUOTE ]
I think those numbers should be 95%/92%/89%

bozlax

02-12-2005, 03:09 PM

Hmmmm. You're probably right, I was pulling them out of the air, and when I go through it, you're actually getting 12:1 calling the two bets cold:

18 bets in to start. Checked to you. You bet (19), player A raises (21), player B 3-bets (24), so you're calling 2 cold to win 24, 12:1!

What about 3 bets? You bet (19), player A raises (21), player B 3-bets (24), player C caps (28), so you're calling 3 to win 28, making it just better than 9:1.

So you should finish this hand against any raises? I must be calculating this wrong.

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So you should finish this hand against any raises?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, only for one more bet. I'm behind very often If I'm check/raised by one person, but if check/raised by 2 persons I'm NEVER ahead. Even if I only have to win 8% of the time against 2xcheck/raise I will not come near that number.

[ QUOTE ]
I must be calculating this wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you're right.

Vern

02-12-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I might have thrown this away PF or on the flop. I hate double-deuce. But, that wasn't the question, so...

Having come this far, in your position, I'm betting/calling-one-back, folding-more-than-one-back. For one bet, you have to win this 95%, for two bets you have to win 90%, for 3 bets you have to win 80% (numbers, of course, dependent on how many of the others stay in to the first raise, but they're close). With this many players, I don't think can push it to 80, but I think you're good at 90.

[/ QUOTE ]

I accept comments on any portion of the hand, I think folding this PF or on the flop would be a mistake, but am open to be proven wrong.

Pre-flop, my first decision is Cold Call 2, at odds of 7.5:2, but I expect at least 4 more SB to get into the pot so I think I am closer to 11.5:2, so I need to make up about 4.5 sb in implied odds, with 5 opponents already voluntarily putting money in, this does not look bad. Even if I knew it was going to be raised by the SB and capped by CO, I think staying in pre-flop is ok. In that case, disregarding whether BB calls or folds, I would be getting 25:4, so I would need to make up 7 sb in a pre-flop capped pot if I hit my set and I have 6 opponents, seems reasonable to me. As it was, I got 21:3 odds overall, so I needed to make up 3SB post flop if I hit my set to break even and I have position on the field and the pre-flop three-bettor.

On the flop, I went with my read. SB was aggressive pre-flop but went weak/passive after the flop hit, real fit/fold mentalitiy. I was getting 25:1 to make a 22.5:1 call. If it was to be check/raised, it would likely be by SB, so I could close for one more SB or fold if it came back 2 or more (I would be getting odds around 15:1 on the 2 callback, but would fear a cap at that point making it closer to 11:1). Again, assuming I knew the SB would check raise and only 2 of remaining players would call 2, I would be getting 33:2 odds to call a check/raise one back to me, with two streets of betting left, I need to make up 6BB, tougher, but then I figured some of the time I only have to call one. I think the flop call was closer than the pre-flop call, but there was not one player that was aggressive after the flop other than me, so if it got crazy behind me I could safely fold, but there was a decent chance one sb would let me see the turn.

Turn play is easy, the river is where I got perplexed. No one check/raised the flop, or check/raised me on the turn (waited for the turn to raise their trip kings). CO checked the turn as well so I figured there were no kings out there.

Upon examination, I think it is an easy bet (I did not think this fast in the hand so I posted the question). I have 3 opponents on the river, my read is there are only two hands that beat me, either of the 6's, this is by evaluating how they played with kings on board on the flop/turn. The outright chances one of them has one of the remaining 6's is about 25%, (the chances they have neither a K or 6 is ~55%) so a bet is clearly in order since even heads up, I will be ahead more than 50% of the time, and without a bet three hands cannot call me. Hands with an ace, Hands with a PP higher than 6 and made backdoor flushes. There might even be a slight chance a bet folds out a 6(Slight chance close to zero at this level). Now, if it got check raised, I think I call one back for sanity, but if a passive post flop player 3-bet check/re-raise a check/raise on the river I fold.

My answer was bet/call one back.

Vern

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Upon examination, I think it is an easy bet

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, if it got check raised, I think I call one back for sanity

[/ QUOTE ]
It won't happen often but when it happen I guess you'll have to call, since the pot is HUGH.

[ QUOTE ]
There might even be a slight chance a bet folds out a 6

[/ QUOTE ]
The player who calls 1BB at the turn with pair of 6's and folds for 1BB on the river in a 20BB pot when he actually made his "draw" have to be pretty [censored] retarded /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Vern

02-12-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There might even be a slight chance a bet folds out a 6

[/ QUOTE ]
The player who calls 1BB at the turn with pair of 6's and folds for 1BB on the river in a 20BB pot when he actually made his "draw" have to be pretty [censored] retarded /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but there are plenty of them in the .5/1 game, even at paradise. I said it was between slight and zero, but against such a weak/passive field, I think it could have been. I am just glad there was no maniac or LAG that I would have to call multiple bets on the end against.

Vern

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, but there are plenty of them in the .5/1 game, even at paradise. I said it was between slight and zero, but against such a weak/passive field, I think it could have been. I am just glad there was no maniac or LAG that I would have to call multiple bets on the end against.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I've played opponents who check/raises A-high on this board who other than that didn't play overly aggressive (nor good). I voted bet/fold at first, but that would be pretty bad.

DeathDonkey

02-12-2005, 04:54 PM

Cap preflop /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

-DeathDonkey

Nick Royale

02-12-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're wrong. If we assume no player fold a 6 after getting to the flop:

45 unseen cards. 8 of these are not 6's since they've been folded by loose players postflop. You are up against 3 players on the river.

How often will these 3 players draw 2 cards each from 37 (45-8) without hitting a 6?

(35!/29!)/(37!/31!)= ~70%

So they'll only have a 6 30% of the time. Of course in reality that number will be higher since the hands they'll play to the river isn't random. But since loose players will play many hands like this (and pay off) I think a bet here is for value. And they will only very rarely raise you with a 6 since they're passive and there's 2 K's on the board.

Vern

02-12-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cap preflop /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

One more player in and I would have capped pre-flop but I liked both my position and relative position here.

I think the math says bet, call one back although the calling one back is just for sanity.

Vern

Vern

02-13-2005, 08:21 PM

Well, I wimped out and checked, even though evaluating it I think I should have bet. Here is the rest of the hand.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
Props to Bison for his converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (24 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

UTG+1 has 9c Tc (flush, king high).
MP2 has Ah 3h (two pair, kings and sixes).
CO has As Jd (two pair, kings and sixes).
Hero has 2h 2s (full house, twos full of kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 18.50 BB.