Bankroll Question for the Math Guys

[Gigabet]

Can anyone tell me how much I would need in my pokerstars account to adequately bankroll playing the 5k HU stts? Assume my ROI is 10%(I have absolutely no idea if this is even close) and I want to keep my ror below 10%.

Thank You

[ReDeYES88]

$5000+$100

~10% ROI & 10% ROR, bankroll = ~$55,600
~12.5% ROI & 10% ROR, bankroll = ~$44,600
~7.5% ROI & 10% ROR, bankroll = ~$73,500

Assuming that my numbers will be validated by others, I'll accept either a $50 transfer to my Party account or a cashier's check for $50, whichever is easier. You can PM me for the relevant information to make the transaction. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Of course if you are willing to PM me a juicy nugget of SnG wisdom that will earn me much more than the above stated amount [one not previously shared on this board], I am willing to negotiate. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[byronkincaid]

Erik versus Gig. You could charge people to watch that. Is your name the same on Stars?

[AtticusFinch]

It all depends on what Risk of Ruin (i.e. risk of blowing your entire bankroll) you are willing to accept. You can use this tool to calculate your risk of ruin for various bankroll sizes:

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/poker/part2/rorcalc2.html

To simulate a heads-up SNG, just enter 0 for first and second place, and enter the win-rate that gives you the ROI you expect for 3rd place. For 10%, this would be .605. (Note that the tool assumes a 10% vig, but the 5k SNGs only have a 2% vig, so the win rate you'll actually need to get a 10% ROI will be lower. Just use your estimated ROI as your baseline. You can calculate the true needed win-rate separately.)

For example, according to the tool, with a $50k bankroll, your risk of ruin is approximately 9.6%, which is not too far off from Redeyes' estimate.

[AtticusFinch]

By the way, I'm with Byron -- I'd love to watch you play these. Post here and let us know when you start.

[ReDeYES88]

Just for grins, keeping the 10% ROR constant. The values have been slightly rounded off, but they are close enough, I'm sure.

http://img68.exs.cx/img68/6008/5000100bankroll25mn.jpg

[Daliman]

10% is WAY too high a RoR to have. It would be like playing the $200's with $1200 or so total in your account. Sure, most of the time, you'd be ok, but one out of ten times you go broke. You want 5% RoR as a MINIMUM, and preferably 3% or so, but that WOULD be a god-awful ton of MOney. I'm not a math guy, but 3% i'm guessing would be ~200k.

Now, if you mean 10% RoR backed up by plenty of reserve $$$ not directly in your PS account, then have at it. I'm thinking the 10% ROI theoretical is going to be too high by a long shot though. Really just guessing here, but I would think 5% in that game would be huge, but I'm also guessing that yer playing against a bunch of top players in that game and the rich fish will be few and far between, but I could be wrong. Course, Neverwin could sit in there and jack EVERYONE's earn up 3% each alone.

I Imagine that game would look something like this skillwise:

Seat#
1. Gigabet
2. Daliman
3. Dr Gammon
4. Fossilman
5. ZeeJustin
6. Layne Flack
7 Chip Jett
8. Scotty Nguyen
9. Erik 123

I could be wrong, and I'm sure I am of course, but it seems to me a MUCH higher % of great players would be playing that game.

Also, remember that since PS has 9 player tourneys, your theoretical (and actual) roi is reduced by about 11% from the total. So if your ROI for ten people all other things equal was 10%, your theoretical ROI for 9 people would be 8.9% or so. Not a ton, but it matters.


/images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Bah! Reading is a SKILL Dali!

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how much I would need in my pokerstars account to adequately bankroll playing the 5k HU stts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard most of above, although 10% is still too high an RoR, and likely too high an ROI too, as you'd have to win slightly over 55% of your matches

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
10% is WAY too high a RoR to have. It would be like playing the $200's with $1200 or so total in your account. Sure, most of the time, you'd be ok, but one out of ten times you go broke. You want 5% RoR as a MINIMUM, and preferably 3% or so, but that WOULD be a god-awful ton of MOney. I'm not a math guy, but 3% i'm guessing would be ~200k.

Now, if you mean 10% RoR backed up by plenty of reserve $$$ not directly in your PS account, then have at it. I'm thinking the 10% ROI theoretical is going to be too high by a long shot though. Really just guessing here, but I would think 5% in that game would be huge, but I'm also guessing that yer playing against a bunch of top players in that game and the rich fish will be few and far between, but I could be wrong. Course, Neverwin could sit in there and jack EVERYONE's earn up 3% each alone.

I Imagine that game would look something like this skillwise:

Seat#
1. Gigabet
2. Daliman
3. Dr Gammon
4. Fossilman
5. ZeeJustin
6. Layne Flack
7 Chip Jett
8. Scotty Nguyen
9. Erik 123

I could be wrong, and I'm sure I am of course, but it seems to me a MUCH higher % of great players would be playing that game.

Also, remember that since PS has 9 player tourneys, your theoretical (and actual) roi is reduced by about 11% from the total. So if your ROI for ten people all other things equal was 10%, your theoretical ROI for 9 people would be 8.9% or so. Not a ton, but it matters.


/images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Bah! Reading is a SKILL Dali!

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how much I would need in my pokerstars account to adequately bankroll playing the 5k HU stts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard most of above, although 10% is still too high an RoR, and likely too high an ROI too, as you'd have to win slightly over 55% of your matches

[/ QUOTE ]

where's stevesbet(s)? i hear he's been well in these HU SNGs?

[Gigabet]

I just wanted to know how much has to go into stars account so I don't have to reload. It takes forever to get money in that place.

[mikey checks]

If youre playing $5k HUs.... I would keep at least $60K in there. at least



what should i have in my account for playing 3 $200 sngs at a time?

I was thikning 2k?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to know how much has to go into stars account so I don't have to reload. It takes forever to get money in that place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well 60k or so should be enough to make it unlikely (< 8%) you'll have to reload before blowing through it all.

[DonButtons]

I say 500k, my friends tell me your a lil' fishy. Have fun.