Pushing big slick

[NateDog]

1-5 Spread limit home game. Villian is your prototypical calling station. I have played about 6 hands in 2 hours, and shown down AA, KK, AQs, TT and the like. I have a rockish image. Is this pushing too hard?

Hero is BB with AK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Preflop 4 limpers, SB folds, hero raises to $4. MP (villian) calls, LP calls.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero bets $5, villain calls, LP folds

Turn: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets $5, villain calls

Thoughts?

[Nick C]

You may be ahead of a worse ace-high (or other hands such as a heart flush draw), and also betting the turn does decrease the chances of getting bluffed at on the river. It doesn't sound like this player would bluff the river anyway, though, but at the same time, your chances of getting raised on the turn aren't that great, either, based on your read.

With just overcard outs, I think I'd be inclined to bet-fold the turn. With just overcards plus a gutshot, I think I'd take the free card (especially since there's little chance of getting your opponent to fold; on the other hand, there is also less fear of a raise than there would be against a more aggressive player). [Edit: Of course, there's no guarantee of a free card if you check. I've been doing some editing, but this response is nevertheless pretty muddled and confusing, I suspect.] But since you have a flush draw and a huge number of potential outs and don't really mind a raise that much, I like your turn bet-call plan.

Edit: I don't know why I thought you had position on your opponent, but I did initially. Since you don't, I think I'd just bet no matter what.

[NateDog]

Thank Nick,

I got halfway thru your reply, and went "what?" Thanks for the Edit. Villian here, lets call him fatty-baldy-calls-a-lot, will bet/raise with a good hand. By the turn, I've got him on a small pair, and some sort of draw. I'm trying to push him out here, as I don't really want to go to SD. At the table, with a couple beers down, I guestimated maybe 6 outs on the flop(3 Aces slightly discounted, as he plays ace-rag a lot, 3 Kings, again slightly discounted, and 1.5 for the BDF). The turn /images/graemlins/diamond.gif swings pushes my equity way up (right?), and I still have semi-clean overcard outs.

How wrong, right, muddled, or clear is this?

Nate

[Nick C]

Playing overcards out of position is very difficult and is something I struggle with.

Anyway, though, here are some thoughts (and I'll just act as though I'm playing the hand):

At the time I'm betting the flop, I'm not thinking in terms of outs, exactly. I only have two opponents, and I'm thinking I may have the best hand. The presence of the ten on the board does make that somewhat less likely than if the board simply contained relatively uncoordinated rags, but I'm still not giving up on the idea I'm best. If my opponents will call with no pair and no draw, except for overcard(s), that's okay, but I wouldn't really mind if both of my opponents folded such hands either, as it would eliminate the possibility of me getting bluffed out later. (It sounds like maybe that wasn't such a big concern at this table, though.)

In any event, the flop isn't an easy one to hit, and if my hand was best to begin with, I think there's a good chance it still is. The absence of any queen or jack does have a potential drawback, though, which is that my opponents may figure (correctly, given my cards) that the flop missed me and I just have overcards, in which case they're not going to fold, say, pocket 4's or pocket 8's. There aren't any really scary overcards for them to worry about, so mostly they're concerned I might have an overpair.

Once the turn card comes, I have to think about what my one remaining opponent called me with on the flop. If it was overcards, then my opponent may have just hit top pair. If it was a pair, I still don't think a bet will get him to fold. (Unfortunately, the overcards that will be scariest to an opponent with, say, 88, are the ones that actually hit my hand.) If he called with a flush draw and no pair (and still has no pair), then my chances of having the best hand at showdown have improved, since there's now only one card to come. (Versus many otherwise unimproved flush draws on the flop -- the ones that didn't also include straight possibilities, for instance -- neither my AKs or my opponent's hand was a big favorite, since he could pull ahead either by catching a flush or a pair, and there were two cards to come.)

Unfortunately, I don't think my chances of getting my opponent to fold a better hand are very good. Still, that doesn't mean checking is best. Whatever chance there is that he will fold a better hand does certainly add benefit to betting. Also, if I check, my opponent might, for instance, bet the hands that are beating mine but check behind if he's drawing. He might also call with something like AQo, which doesn't really have that good of a chance of pulling ahead of me. (And if he folds AQo, I do at least no longer have to worry about getting bluffed out on the river.) If he's behind with a flush draw, he'll at least call, but I want to make him put in a bet now, while he's drawing. (If he'll bluff a missed draw on the river after missing and, realizing this possibility, I intend to call a bet on a non-heart river, then checking becomes something to consider, and I could even end up winning two bets with this plan if my opponent is aggressive and will semi-bluff the turn and then fire again unimproved on the river and I intend to call the river. It doesn't sound like that consideration applies so much in this case, though. Plus, it's entirely possible my opponent has something better than a flush draw.)

Anyway, the biggest drawback to betting is the possibility of getting raised by a hand I'm an underdog against. This isn't such a big deal in the hand in question, since I have so many potential outs. It also wouldn't be that big of a deal if had less of a draw (just overcards, let's say) and I was confident the raise meant I was too far behind (given the pot size) to call, even with the additional money that the turn bet and raise had placed in the pot. (And probably my opponent will need a little more of a hand to raise than to bet if checked to. By checking, I would give my opponent a chance to sense weakness and bet, but I'd have less idea about the strength of his hand and would also have to more seriously consider the possibility that he was bluffing or semi-bluffing. On the other hand, if my opponent was very passive and would check behind with something like 88, then checking would gain appeal. Even though I now have 18 outs versus 88, I am still an underdog.)

It's with overcards plus a gutshot (and no flush draw) that the situation would be trickiest, I think. I've got a potential 10 outs in that case, and if my opponent might raise with both 88 and JT, let's say, I'm not going to know if I have the odds to draw once I get raised. That's why, in position, I'd seriously consider checking behind on the turn, without the flush draw. The checkraise represents a lot of strength, and the chances I'm drawing to much more than a gutshot just went down (when I got checkraised). But if it is just 88, I'd be wrong to fold, and by the time those turn bets had gone in, I wouldn't want to fold against AJ either. (I am guessing slightly here, since I'm uncertain of the structure of your spread limit game, especially preflop, and thus don't know the exact pot size. I've never played spread limit and am unfamiliar with the conventions.)

Out of position, though, I have to act before my opponent and don't know what kind of hand he has or wants to represent. If I checked, I think I would call a bet in this spot with overcards and a gutshot, but if I check and my passive opponent puts a bet in, then I'm putting a bet in (by calling) when doing so is more likely to be incorrect than it would be if I bet and my opponent just called. Also, if my opponent is somewhat more aggressive, then if I check I'm giving him a chance to steal by betting both the turn and the river against me (if I don't think he'll semi-bluff and then bluff like this often enough for me to call the river unimproved). Getting raised on the turn wouldn't be fun at all and would leave me wondering whether to call with my overcards and gutshot or not, and this is one reason why playing out of position can be very difficult. But I do think that, out of position, I would bet the turn with overcards and a gutshot against most opponents (ones who aren't very passive or very aggressive), whereas against the same opponent I'd check behind in position, if given the opportunity.

Whew. I wrote all that for my benefit as much as yours (like I said, playing overcards is something I struggle with myself), but I hope it was helpful. Also, if anything I wrote was glaringly incorrect or even just suspect, let's hope someone will correct me.

By the way, with regard to your question about your pot equity on the turn versus your equity on the flop, I can't give a definite answer, because (1) the math is complicated, and (2) we don't know what your opponent has. You do now just have one opponent, which should improve your equity. And you now have an actual flush draw and gutshot, instead of just backdoor draws, to go with your overcards. However, there is now just one card to come, which means the chances of hitting your overcards has gone down. Also, if your opponent has, say, QJ, he did just pull ahead of you, whereas he wasn't before.

Still, I think that, yes, your equity probably did improve, against the range of hands your opponent is likely to hold. The 1.5 outs you were taking credit for for the backdoor flush just became 9 outs, and the very weak backdoor straight just became a gutshot. Also, you only have one opponent now (though, if you have to improve to win, that probably doesn't matter much -- probably the other player didn't fold a hand that had one of your overcards reverse-dominated, for instance). You did get called on the flop, though, which increases the chances you're behind (versus the chances before you bet the flop), which is another complication.