A9s six players see flop.

[jon_keck]

No relevant reads.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.5. MP1 posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.


Flop: (12.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

All comments appreciated.

[toss]

I like the PF raise with those two posters. Flop is fine.

Turn is debatable. A free card here would be nice, but the pot may be big enough to try and knock out a player or two. I'd check or bet depending on my reads of the checkers.

[Womble]

Nice flop raise!

You should have taken the free card on the turn. A semibluff will not work against 5 players very often

[Axioms]

Doesn't your two raises make this pot too big for anyone to get away from? At 11BBs by the turn, you're getting monster odds on this hand, which is exactly what you want. I'd probably do the same with this board and pray everyone calls me on the turn.

[jon_keck]

Thanks for all the input.

Check vs. bet on the turn w/ big draws is something I'm trying to get better with. If I check and catch an ace on the river, I won't be happy if it's a bet and 2 calls (or worse) to me. But, if I bet the turn and catch a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, it seems unlikely that I'd get a lot of action on the river.

I'm simplifying a bit, but those are the two biggest factors as I see it.

[Interested]

[ QUOTE ]
No relevant reads.
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

All comments appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hello jon_keck,

Could you explain what did you mean "ev+ with 3 callers". You had already ev+. I think it was better to bet the turn and may be get free showdown.
And if you'll get free card and catch your diamond - how many callers you expect to get?
And it isn't obviously why the turn bet was wrong. Any reply?

Sorry for my English.

[Interested]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the PF raise with those two posters. Flop is fine.

Turn is debatable. A free card here would be nice, but the pot may be big enough to try and knock out a player or two. I'd check or bet depending on my reads of the checkers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, may you explain for me. Turn - all check to you. What reads do you need to bet on these 5 players if there are no maniacs?

[toss]

Actually ignore my first post, I would bet here. You have about a 20% chance of improving to the nuts and if you spike an ace you might win. Since you're contributing 20% of the pot, you should bet. Betting would be better than taking the free card.

[jon_keck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No relevant reads.
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

All comments appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hello jon_keck,

Could you explain what did you mean "ev+ with 3 callers". You had already ev+.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, welcome to the forums.

I'm still learning to use math to justify action, so I might be seeing it the wrong way.

If I bet, I have 9/46 chance of making a flush on the river. I thought at least 3 players would call me.

[(9/46)*3]+[(37/46)*-1] = -0.22
[times I make a flush on river]+[times I don't]

I lose .22 BB everytime I bet the turn and only get 3 callers. This is what meant.

[ QUOTE ]

I think it was better to bet the turn and may be get free showdown.
And if you'll get free card and catch your diamond - how many callers you expect to get?
And it isn't obviously why the turn bet was wrong. Any reply?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with what you say, there are other factors to consider.

One thing to worry about is getting check-raised after betting the turn and everyone else folding.

As you said, there are good reasons to bet too.

The difference between betting and checking seems small. I prefer aggression in this case.

[toss]

But think about it, when you have people fold you increase your chance of winning the pot greatly.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

[jon_keck]

[ QUOTE ]
But think about it, when you have people fold you increase your chance of winning the pot greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to sound like a parrot, but I agree. It's just that betting here isn't as obvious (to me) as raising pf or flop was.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually ignore my first post, I would bet here. You have about a 20% chance of improving to the nuts and if you spike an ace you might win. Since you're contributing 20% of the pot, you should bet. Betting would be better than taking the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll give you at best 23% equity here. You'll have to get ALL four players calling for a bet almost every time for it to be +EV. Take the freecard.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is debatable. A free card here would be nice, but the pot may be big enough to try and knock out a player or two.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless you can get a better hand to fold by betting (won't happen often) you don't want to knock out players by betting.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If I check and catch an ace on the river, I won't be happy if it's a bet and 2 calls (or worse) to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? It's an easy call.

[jon_keck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wracking my brain. Thanks for the input.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But think about it, when you have people fold you increase your chance of winning the pot greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. You improve your chances a tiny bit. Not worth a bet.

[toss]

Meh I may very well be wrong. We need Shillx here to run some numbers.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
We need Shillx here to run some numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you understand this we'll not have to ask Shillx:

[ QUOTE ]
1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

[/ QUOTE ]
If a bet won't improve your chances in winning the hand unimproved (it will not) it's wrong to bet to fold opponents. And since you'll not get 4 callers most of the time either it will be wrong to bet because of your ~23% equity.

Another (small) advantage of checking is that somebody might bet into you when you river the flush.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it was better to bet the turn and may be get free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't want a free showdown with A-high.

[Interested]

Hello Nick, thanks for your arguing.

But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB. If you had AA/KK you will get here free card?

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello Nick, thanks for your arguing.

But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB. If you had AA/KK you will get here free card?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't just multiply your equity by the current pot size to determine whether or not to bet on the turn. The turn seems like an easy place to get a free card -

a) your equity is thin even if all players call (which they probably won't)
b) your fold equity isn't high enough
c) you probably won't fold out an Ace and if you did the increase in equity isn't high enough
d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you want to find out if your bet is for value you should use pot equity. In this case we'll win the pot ~23% of the time. We'll have ~10-10.5 outs.

Our draw will come in: 10.5/45= ~23%

If we get 4 callers:
(0.23*4)-(0.77*1)= +0.15BB (a slim value bet)

I think we'll not get 4 callers often enough to make this bet profitable. It's risky since the pfr aggressor could be planning to check/raise the turn folding everyone else out and paing 2BB instead of 0BB to see this river would stink. Even if he don't check/raise I think Hero scared some people by raising the flop, it's only very rarely Hero gets 4 callers here IMO.

[Peter_rus]

Easy check. Betting is totally out of discussion and have negative EV in average and slim +EV if all of them call you. You don't need free SD and cleaning out your outs- you want not risk to be c/r-sed and to give up if no flush, A, or very rare 9 comes on board as you have no folding equity here at all.

In addition after that flop action probability for someone have same 4-flush is way higher than usually.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

[/ QUOTE ]

You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

[/ QUOTE ]
You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

[/ QUOTE ]
We'll never win a showdown unimproved so there are no reason to bet the turn to get free showdown. If hero checks the turn he could fold safe to a river bet.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

[/ QUOTE ]
You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

[/ QUOTE ]
We'll never win a showdown unimproved so there are no reason to bet the turn to get free showdown. If hero checks the turn he could fold safe to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

In many situations I'll bet Ace-high overs into one opponent on the turn if I've shown aggression, with the intention of checking behind on the river: I have fold equity and I save a tough decision if he tries to bluff into me on the river after I check the turn. So it seems like I do want a free showdown in those cases.

Is this situation different because of the number of players on the turn and the very low chance that Hero has the best hand makes it easy to fold the riv UI?

Redd

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
In many situations I'll bet Ace-high overs into one opponent on the turn if I've shown aggression, with the intention of checking behind on the river: I have fold equity and I save a tough decision if he tries to bluff into me on the river after I check the turn. So it seems like I do want a free showdown in those cases.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is true. I often bet the river HU to get a freedown. HU my opponent is likely to bluff the river and I can't fold the river safe. Since it'll cost the same to bet the turn and take a free showdown I like that line over checking the turn and calling the river. The reason is what you stated, I'll get folding equity that way.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this situation different because of the number of players on the turn and the very low chance that Hero has the best hand makes it easy to fold the riv UI?


[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct. With 4 opponets Hero is almost never ahead and a fold on the river is safe. It's not likely for someone to try to bluff 4 players so we'll face a bluff on the river much more frequently HU.

[Uppercut]

If you had two overcards, I can see betting this turn for value with 4 opponents. (You may have as many as 15 outs.) But with only the Ace as an overcard, I check the turn and take the free card. This is why I love having position!

[Axioms]

Thanks for taking the time to explain this situation. The posts were very informative and probably plugged a leak for me.

[Interested]

Thank you Nick and Davelin for your replying. You force me to think about things I never thought before.

Hmm, I just ran the simulation in Turbo Texas Holdem and got strange results. There were 2 simulations. In both we were on the button, all cards from example, turn, 4 opponents, all check to us. First one we bet and call all raises/second one we check for free card. Results 3966/2946.

Just what do you think?

Thank you again

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you Nick and Davelin for your replying. You force me to think about things I never thought before.

Hmm, I just ran the simulation in Turbo Texas Holdem and got strange results. There were 2 simulations. In both we were on the button, all cards from example, turn, 4 opponents, all check to us. First one we bet and call all raises/second one we check for free card. Results 3966/2946.

Just what do you think?

Thank you again

[/ QUOTE ]

What do these results mean...$ won?

[Interested]

Yes this is net $won. Limit simulation was $2/$4. Loose table.

[toss]

Thats a big difference in $$ won.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a big difference in $$ won.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, and I'd bet it's because of the error in this calculation:

[ QUOTE ]
[(9/46)*3]+[(37/46)*-1] = -0.22
[times I make a flush on river]+[times I don't]

I lose .22 BB everytime I bet the turn and only get 3 callers. This is what meant.

[/ QUOTE ]
The poster of this only gives 3 big bets of profit to the hero when he hits his flush. Is no one else EVER on a flush draw here? I'd venture to guess that the hero will make much more than 3 bets when he hits his flush via implied odds. He will probably get a minimum of 6 (due to three callers calling twice, turn and river) and possibly much more due to someone in early position hitting their king or queen high flush and betting it.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
The poster of this only gives 3 big bets of profit to the hero when he hits his flush. Is no one else EVER on a flush draw here? I'd venture to guess that the hero will make much more than 3 bets when he hits his flush via implied odds. He will probably get a minimum of 6 (due to three callers calling twice, turn and river) and possibly much more due to someone in early position hitting their king or queen high flush and betting it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your implied odds is not effected by the turn bet. If you check the turn and hit your flush at the same time someone else does (or hit some other 2nd hand) your implied odds will be the same.

EDIT: The calculation is correct.

[Ian M.]

Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly. The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ). Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly. The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ). Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're investing a little less than 10% of the pot when you make the turn bet. Is your increase in equity really going to go up by that much?

In my experience you're more likely to get more action on the river by checking than betting. You may get top pair to bet or even a bluff on the river by showing "weakness" on the turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not true:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ).

[/ QUOTE ]
A bet will very rarely fold a better hand. And closse to never make you win this hand UI.

[ QUOTE ]
Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
On the other hand checking might make your opponents bet into you when you hit your flush making you able to raise.

[Nick Royale]

Can't believe we're still posting in this thread...