VERY COMMON AK scenario, how would do you play this??

[Mizzles]

4 bet preflop out of position??
Call down to the river??

Villian has about 9% PFR if I remember correctly.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.83 BB

[lil feller]

this is really player dependant. Telling us his PFR is 9% is meaningless, he didn't raise he 3bet. What are his 3bet standards? My guess is that you're toast here and a check/fold on the turn is the right way to go. If he's prone to 3 bet with Ak, Aq, Aj, KQ and other broadway hands, then checking/calling might be the way to go.

If he is somewhere in the middle, a turn c/r might bet a medium PP or another AK to fold

lf

lf

[imported_stealthcow]

i had a similar hand with AQo except against someone that ( 2 orbits in) i had him down as a lag, as his vpip seemed around 30 and his pfr was pretty high.

hand went something like this

i open from mp1, lag 3 bets folded to me, i call

flop

x x x
i check he bets, i call

turn x
i check he bets, i raise he calls

turn x

i check he checks

his AK takes it down. in retrospect, i thought i f'd up my hand pretty bad going for that c/r. first he 3 bet, which should have led me to believe he's smart enough to know not to do that without something half decent.

in your hand, i think agg/ factor def. should help with your decision. i dont see him 3 betting with many hands you beat, (other then splitting with another AK)

but i'm looking to see what otehrs have to say, specifically peter_rus because he did a lot of database mining for situations such like this.

stealthcow-

[NMcNasty]

You should probably call down all the way. If the river is a queen you should consider folding since you can't beat an aggressively played AQ anymore and all you can really hope for is a split pot with an aggressively played AK. Folding at the turn though is definitely premature, you will be losing money to people who routinely 3bet with AQ.

[amulet]

some of it depends on your read of the player. however, of the possible hands he has you beat very few of them. unless this is a player who gets out of line, the odds based on his possible hands say you are beat. therefore, why spend 2 big bets when the odds say your a dog? fold.

[Peter_rus]

If you think that you can win this pot at least 14% of time unimproved you must check-call turn and check-call river. If Ace or King comes on river you can choose other line than check-call.

So if he able to 3-bet you PF with AQo/99/AJs - you must defenitely call. As he has 27 combos that beats you, 15 combos that you beat and 9 combos to split pot between you and him. This gives you 0.36% to be ahead (not taking to mention ).

If he can 3-bet you with AKo/JJ/AQs - lone AQs also gives you borderline chances to call down of 14% to win unimproved.

Only against pretty tight 3-bettor (QQ/AKs) or 'pair fan', whose 3-bet standarts may look like 66/AQs/AKo you can safely fold on turn.

[amulet]

this is a very good post. and the thoughts are terrific. but it is also very player dependent. for these #'s to be correct, he needs to 3 bet with AQ, AJ, 99, etc. so you are saying vs a solid player fold, one who does not 3 bet with AQ and AJ? but vs a monkey who will 3 bet with a mid pair, the # are also not correct. therefore, you need to be vs the right player.

[steveyz]

this is my SOP for opponents that are reasonable 3-bettors. I think an opponent's PFR would have to be 15%+ for me to consider calling down. Also you have to consider your positions. I.e. if you are CO and button 3-bets you, you should cap and play it from there. If you are EP and EMP/MP 3-bets you, be more inclined to call and take one off the flop and fold the turn unimproved.

[TStoneMBD]

if the preflop raiser is capable of 3betting you with nonpair hands, then i think a cap is in order. you will be able to win the pot when both of you miss a fair amount of time by postflop aggression. if you simply call the 3bet and take the check-call, check-fold line youll give up alot to the players who dont even have you beat. however, if hes not capable of 3betting you with hands like AJ, then id just call the 3bet and take the line you took. this hand is player dependant, and the stats you provided really arent enough to determine villains capabilities.

[Kaz The Original]

I love the description "pair fan". I think peter_rus may be one of my favourite posters. I really appreciate the data mining and simulations you have done.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
so you are saying vs a solid player fold, one who does not 3 bet with AQ and AJ? but vs a monkey who will 3 bet with a mid pair, the # are also not correct. therefore, you need to be vs the right player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect, that calling down pretty often for 15/30 today games better than folding.

There is not much people who 3-bet only QQ-AKs and there is not much people who 3-bet with 66 and do not 3-bet with AJo for e.g..

[Ice]

Hi Mizzles

I would have checkraised the flop and bet the turn.If he called my turn bet i would have check/called the river. If he raised my turn bet i would have mucked.

This guy could have EASILY been on overcards or a draw and i would have Definitely made a play for the pot.If your giving up that easy head up TAG are never going to let you win a pot heads up.Remember when you checkraise the flop and bet the turn what is he putting you on? You have him in a tough spot and it takes a VERY STRONG player to try and resteal based on that action.Continued success. Ice

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I think peter_rus may be one of my favourite posters. I really appreciate the data mining and simulations you have done.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

I think i could write a book with complete math on TH and data if i'll be succesfull player next 3-4 years online as i believe online poker is game of math and stats and i don't like many written books due to lack of math and many non-math-motivated advices.

[imported_stealthcow]

please write this book and send me an advanced copy

stealthcow-