I cold called with J8s

[beachbum]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) calls, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="green"> I figured the pot was going to be at least 6 handed. I'm on the button. The only decent players in the hand are UTG+1 and MP3.</font>


Flop: (15 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="green"> With backdoor straight and flush draws I figured I was getting odds to call. </font>


Turn: (10 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds.

<font color="green"> Honestly, just now I realized the 3 paired the board. Oops. Anyway, how's the call here? I didn't want to raise because I wanted to keep the others in to give me proper odds for my flush draw. </font>


River: (12 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

<font color="green"> Had I realized there were now 2 pair on board, I wouldn't have raised here. I just saw the Queen paired the board. Any thoughts on this hand as a whole? </font>


Final Pot: 16 BB

[Wired Jokers]

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts on this hand as a whole?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. It's atrocious.

Fold the frigging hand pre-flop. Then on the flop, you have at most 2 outs (1.5 for the flush, .5 for catching your runner-runner straight). For the love of all that is good and holy, fold.

[private joker]

Misplayed on every street.

PF: Fold this garbage.

Flop: Even getting 19:1, your 2 outs (1 for each backdoor) don't justify a call -- only if you give them 1.5 outs each are you mathmatically correct, but you're not closing the action (2 players have yet to act and could check-raise) and your flush might not be the nuts.

Turn: This call is fine, but being here is retarded.

River: Not realizing the board is double-paired is bush league. This is a horrific raise. I doubt CO has a 3, but he could easily have a Q. If he just has an A, then he wouldn't bet into you on this board -- and he certainly won't call a raise without a boat. (Unless he's just as retarded as you were during this hand).

Sorry -- I really disagree with how you handled this hand.

[adamstewart]

Please tell me: what is your screenname? I'd really like to play at your table(s).

You were a fish in that hand, what more do you want us to say??


Fold preflop. End of Discussion.


... oh, you want more advice?....Fold the f[/i]ucking flop. End of discussion.


My God, that was ugly......



Adam

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
Please tell me: what is your screenname? I'd really like to play at your table(s).

You were a fish in that hand, what more do you want us to say??


Fold preflop. End of Discussion.


... oh, you want more advice?....Fold the f[/i]ucking flop. End of discussion.


My God, that was ugly......



Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

And having folded, spend some time practicing reading the f[/i]ucking board, for God's sake.

[captZEEbo1]

well I for one don't thikn the pf call is THAT bad. It's obviously not great, but it's not TERRIBLE, since it's gonna be VERY multiway. Flop call is bad. Turn call is obvious. I like the river raise, I don't know why anyone else disagrees. What hands do you put him on that you're behind? QQ, AA likely would've reraised preflop. 33 is POSSIBLE, but not likely, Q3 certainly not. You're really only behind AQ or 33. Not raising the river is terrible. He's obviously is not folding no matter what he has (other than random pure bluff), He might 3bet if he has a hand like KQ and is very aggro (you should probably not cap, but that'd be good for you).

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the river raise, I don't know why anyone else disagrees.

[/ QUOTE ]


I didn't comment one way or the other on the river raise, as he shouldn't even be there.


Adam

[shant]

Hey it looks like the Party fish started posting hand histories.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Misplayed on every street.


[/ QUOTE ]

True Dat!

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Nate tha' Great]

The preflop call is fine. In fact I think folding would be a mistake.

The flop call however is too loose.

EDIT: I read his hand as being T8s rather than J8s. I'd definitely call with T8s here preflop but I don't know about J8s. That said I think the vitriol expressed here is mislplaced. The preflop and flop plays are small mistakes at worst.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. End of Discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was a close decision, not a terrible one. A raiser, 3 cold callers (if you count the poster calling another bet) and one limper who will complete. That's at least 5 others in the pot besides me for 2 bets.

Would you cold call J9s? Obviously JTs is right. QTs? 78s? How about same scenario and I'm in the SB?

[Sarge85]

A suited two gapper - really --

me thinks icky

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Even getting 19:1, your 2 outs (1 for each backdoor) don't justify a call -- only if you give them 1.5 outs each are you mathmatically correct, but you're not closing the action (2 players have yet to act and could check-raise) and your flush might not be the nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I do have 2 effective outs here, then I have an 8.4% chance to improve my hand to the straight or flush if I stay to the river. I'm getting 18:1 on calling this flop bet. Now factor in how much more I'll win in implied odds when I do make my hand. Also, discount the small chance losing to a bigger flush. How is calling here not right?

Also, concerning a check-raise, why would BB or UTG+1 check-raise? To protect their hand? They'd be better off betting out and letting UTG+2 raise and do this for them. They could check-raise to make a bigger pot. The only hands that would logically do this here would be pocket 3's or AQ. I felt there was a very small chance of getting check-raised on this flop.


[ QUOTE ]
River: Not realizing the board is double-paired is bush league. This is a horrific raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. I was in another hand at the time, and I admit this was my biggest mistake of the hand.


[ QUOTE ]
If he just has an A, then he wouldn't bet into you on this board -- and he certainly won't call a raise without a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. He did both of these.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop call is fine. In fact I think folding would be a mistake.

The flop call however is too loose.

EDIT: I read his hand as being T8s rather than J8s. I'd definitely call with T8s here preflop but I don't know about J8s. That said I think the vitriol expressed here is mislplaced. The preflop and flop plays are small mistakes at worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, thanks Nate. I wouldn't post this hand if I was proud of it.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey it looks like the Party fish started posting hand histories.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's uncalled for. I'm on these boards like you, to improve my game, not to be insulted. I don't do this and don't expect others to.

[shant]

Whats the point of this post then? Is it to show that even on a double-paired board you can catch runner-runner J high flush and still win?

It's results oriented.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey it looks like the Party fish started posting hand histories.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's uncalled for. I'm on these boards like you, to improve my game, not to be insulted. I don't do this and don't expect others to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize. I thought the preflop and flop calls were pretty bad. I shouldn't have been insulting.

[beachbum]

I appreciate the apology, Shant.

I actually caught the fact that the turn 3 paired the board while composing this post. I guess I could've (or should've) just given the first 2 streets, but I wanted feedback on getting overcalls on the turn. The river is pointless since I wouldn't have raised if I realized the board was double paired.

I thought the preflop cold call with this much overlay was close. I suppose now it was wrong, but I wanted feedback. I also wanted to get feedback on which hands (like T8s) it would make it right. I still don't quite understand why the flop call is wrong. Maybe someone can reply to my implied odds reasoning in the post above.

Anyway, maybe I'll run into you at a Dodger game next year.

[Michael Davis]

This is way overly harsh. If the OP is losing anything in this hand it's not much.

-Michael

[Kaz The Original]

Most of the time I fold preflop, but this call is not a losing one in the long run, if you can believe it. These types of hands swim in multi way pots at a steady pace.

The flop you've got a dream and imagination... sometimes thats all it takes, but most of the time you get nothing but burn out. What are you getting, 10 to 1? I want 15 to 1 to chase this baby.

[SCfuji]

hey beachbum,

not one to take a flop with this 2-gapper even if it is suited, but the pot is rather large and you being on the button could be enough of a lure for some players.

preflop: questionable, i really think it could go both ways depending on your reads and you ability to get away from the hand or extract max value post-flop.

flop: i could peel one off, but im basically hoping for any club. its 18SB to you and you do have a runner-runner straight draw in addition to your runner-runner flush draw, which makes it awfully close. if it is a mistake i don't see it being a terrible mistake. the only thing i don't like about the straight draw is it is a 1-card and you can't believe you will be taking down the entire pot as it will usually be a split pot.

decent turn card for you, im definitely sticking around to see the river but there are some other clubs that i would have preferred to have seen. you have the proper odds to draw for the club on the river even if the others didnt stay in.

river play is highly aggressive and suicidal. if you knew your villain only had an Ace, then darn good read and way to get that extra bet. if you misclicked due to the board misread, then hang your head in shame! bad raise! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
river play is highly aggressive and suicidal. if you knew your villain only had an Ace, then darn good read and way to get that extra bet. if you misclicked due to the board misread, then hang your head in shame! bad raise!

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I don't know if you caught it in the thread, but I failed to realize the turn 3 paired the board. I highly doubt I would've raised the river knowing the board was double paired.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop call is fine. In fact I think folding would be a mistake.

The flop call however is too loose.

EDIT: I read his hand as being T8s rather than J8s. I'd definitely call with T8s here preflop but I don't know about J8s. That said I think the vitriol expressed here is mislplaced. The preflop and flop plays are small mistakes at worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys realize that he isn't just limping here with J8s, but he's cold-calling, right? I remember some debate in an old CDC post about cold-calling with suited connectors like T9s, and it was thin -- there was some argument. If zero-gap suited connectors have issues cold-calling, then how can it be okay to call with a 2-gapper?

There were 3 cold-callers between EP's PFR and Hero's cold-call. That eases the pain a bit -- but J8s cannot count on its high card strength to win with a pair, its 2-gap quality makes a straight difficult, so its only main strength is its suitedness -- and that would be has a J-high flush anyway. This is a questionable limping hand on the button (profitable when the table is loose and passive and multiway, but not much else), but it shouldn't be a cold-call. Not even with 3 others coming along. An easy call from the BB against a raise? Of course. But calling 2 cold? I'd need JTs at best, probably QJs.

[Michael Davis]

QTs would be a clear call here, IMO. J9s is about breakeven. J8s can't be that bad. I agree that it's a poor call, but a poor call by pennies, not dollars.

-Michael

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
QTs would be a clear call here, IMO. J9s is about breakeven. J8s can't be that bad. I agree that it's a poor call, but a poor call by pennies, not dollars.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Those pennies add up if you make a habit of doing it, though. And winning this hand by catching runner-runner (heads-up against an opponent who was just as poor at reading the board as he was) only encouraged Hero to keep doing it.

[Michael Davis]

Sure the pennies add up, but not to that much. Fortunately for the fish, suited hands don't come around that often, and misplaying them is considerably less expensive than with offsuited hands.

-Michael

[private joker]

But I don't think poor PF play should be dismissed so casually. A player who cold-calls with J8s when he probably shouldn't might be a player who cold-calls KJo from MP1 when UTG+2 open-raises. And he might be a player who open-limps UTG with A3s. And he might be a player who calls a raise from the BB with 86o. And he might be a player who limps from LP with Q6s.

All of these tiny leaks add up to one huge leak: too loose preflop. You have the chance to make a preflop decision every single hand. F[/i]ucking that up will turn a marginal winning player into a losing one.

[BoxTree]

Cold-calling here with QJs, JTs, or T9s is perfectly fine. If you make a straight, it's the nuts. Okay, T9 can still lose to AT. And QJ only makes three straights. No biggie, those hands certainly deserve to cold-call here.

Now for J9s, you can only make three straights with it (like QJs), but one of the straights is not the nuts (J9 loses to AJ on a KQT board).

And this is J8s? You're only getting two straight draws?

This is a significantly bad call. I'd say it's "atrocious," but then I have no way of describing a cold-call here with 32s.

[sthief09]

if he played well, I think he could probably turn a small profit with this hand. unfortunately, based on the way he played it postflop, I'm sure it was a bad call preflop. if he didn't call preflop, he wouldn't have been able to make that atrocious postflop call.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
A player who cold-calls with J8s when he probably shouldn't might be a player who cold-calls KJo from MP1 when UTG+2 open-raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would never even think of cc'ing KJ.


[ QUOTE ]
And he might be a player who open-limps UTG with A3s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only time I'm doing this is if the table raises &lt;5% of the time and I know that 5 or more on average see the flop. Even with that perfect scenario, I'm still doing it 1 out of 10 times I have that hand and that "perfect scenario" comes up. FWIW ,I've been dealt A3s 21 times in seats 5,6, and 7 off the button and have played only once. That's when I was 5 off the button and UTG limped.


[ QUOTE ]
And he might be a player who calls a raise from the BB with 86o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no.


[ QUOTE ]
And he might be a player who limps from LP with Q6s.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny you guys think I'm some big fish.


BTW my VPIP is 14.98 and PFR is 7.78. If anything I'm too tight for 2/4. I'm always looking for those tough preflop calls where I can loosen up a bit. Ok so the preflop call was marginally bad. NOT horribly bad.

Also my CCPF is 0.38 and CCPF on the button is 0.97, so it's not like I'm cc'ing a lot. Also, if this hand isn't suited, I never even think of calling. Also, not with one less cold caller or J7s.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
if he didn't call preflop, he wouldn't have been able to make that atrocious postflop call

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please tell me why getting 18:1 on my flop call was so bad? Please give me some numbers. If I don't get a club, K, or T on the turn, I'm folding. Hell, there's a good chance I'll fold even the K or T.

If the betting/calling sequence is the same on the turn, do I call a turn bet from the CO if for example the T/images/graemlins/heart.gif comes off? Now I'm getting 11:1 with a 4 K gutshot outs that possibly are dirty because of the chance of the split.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, just now I realized the 3 paired the board. Oops.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to be antagonizing here but, I think you've got bigger issues in your game than how to play J8s on the button. That being said posting a hand like this here is going to get some very aggressive responses from the community. I don't neccessarily condone these types of posts but, you have to expect them posting a hand like this. Find better ways to increase your VPIP than playing suited 2-gaps. Play any pair any position, Axs any position those are hands that can be +EV in the long run in the small stakes games - this play will not.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Those pennies add up if you make a habit of doing it, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

These situations for a limper and 4 in for 2 bets already to me on the button with a hand like this happen so infrequently it doesn't add up to much one way or the other. This situation might happen 1 in 10000 hands. However, situations that vary slightly to this happen a bit more often. So I do need to more carefully monitor this now.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if this hand isn't suited, I never even think of calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you hearing yourself?... "But it was soooooooted...."



Sorry to be hard on you, but think of our responses as "tough love." After all, the main purpose of these boards is to improve - not to support or 'play down' each others' bad plays.

The fact that you posted this hand means that you think some of these decisions were 'borderline.' I think not.

J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with. Think about it: there's someone who has raised here, and about 4 others who have figured their hands are worth cold-calling with. How much equity do you really think you have here????

Further, what if the flop came Jack-high? Do you think you could still get away from this hand? Because you likely should.

The fact that you continued to chase with a jack-high backdoor flush draw and a double-gutshot tells me that you *wouldn't* be able to get away from a 'marginal' flop.

People keep saying "well, it isn't that bad of mistake... It's only 'cents' not 'dollars' " .... I say Bulls[/i]hit! A -EV play is still a -EV play.


Adam

[foofighter]

this is why i like it here /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't neccessarily condone these types of posts but, you have to expect them posting a hand like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fine. I'd rather post a hand like this and get flamed for it and learn from it, than not post at all. It's like never going to workout because you see everyone in better shape than you at the gym and it destroys your self esteem, especially when those others are condescending. I'm going to focus on me, my goals, focus on improving, and not be disheartened by what others say/think. I can take it. If others are posting with misplaced aggression, that's their issue.


[ QUOTE ]
Play any pair any position, Axs any position those are hands that can be +EV in the long run in the small stakes games - this play will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. If you're in a game limping with 22-66 or A2s-A7s in EP or MP first in or with one limper where it's being raised preflop 30%-50% of the time, then that's really not much better if at all than doing what I did. Now you're still seeing the flop for 2 SB out of position. The pocket pair is easy to dump on the flop when you don't hit, though. But the point is you don't want to be raised preflop when holding these hands.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. J8s is a fine limp in LP with 4 or 5 callers. I'm pretty sure Ed (and other good players here) would agree with that assessment.

Were one to play well postflop, as Nate has already pointed out, I think this coldcall wouldn't be that bad. J9s is my personal cutoff in this position, so I honestly don't think the coldcall is as bad as most people are making it out to be. I'd fold, but I don't see calling as being terrible.

Postflop is another story.

Rob

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to be hard on you, but think of our responses as "tough love." After all, the main purpose of these boards is to improve - not to support or 'play down' each others' bad plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, dude. No worries.


[ QUOTE ]
J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying if 4 limp to you on the button with J8s, you don't play J8s?!? Dusting off the old HEPFAP, J8s is a group 6 hand that plays well in multiway pots. If you don't play it in this spot, I don't see where you do play it. IMO, folding J8s in this situation (not the cold-call situation) would be -EV.

[lu_hawk]

come on you have a suited 2 gapper with at least 4 other players in the hand plus more if the blinds come along. maybe it is a mistake to call preflop but if it is it is only a very small mistake. preflop is not 'atrocious' by any means.

[Michael Davis]

I think not limping if this situation were the same without the raise is terrible.

-Michael

[emil3000]

Agreed. I think not limping in that situation is way worse than coldcalling the raise. If you can't see that the board is doublepaired, you shouldn't play J8s in this spot, but I think it might well be a +EV situation with expert postflop play. I fold it too, but I am not sure if it's right or not.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily. If you're in a game limping with 22-66 or A2s-A7s in EP or MP first in or with one limper where it's being raised preflop 30%-50% of the time, then that's really not much better if at all than doing what I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is better than doing what you did. All those hands are favorites over your J8s. Secondly, when I hit one of my hands (even in a raised pot at Party 2/4) I am going to make second best hand that has to pay off much less of the time than you will with J8s.

[ QUOTE ]
The pocket pair is easy to dump on the flop when you don't hit, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being able to get away from these hands is what makes them +EV. Yes, maybe I lose 2/3 SBs PF playing out of position if I don't hit my hand but, I make 10-20 BBs because the Party 2/4 LAGS regularly pay off these hands when I hit when I hit my set and I win another small percentage of them UI by betting out middle pairs against the TAG raisers who didn't hit their AK. This is +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
But the point is you don't want to be raised preflop when holding these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really care about getting raised after calling any PP or Axs in EP. These plays are +EV because the games I play in there are regulary enough players taking the flop to make these plays +EV. I believe that in an earlier post you mention SSH... read the preflop guidlines again.. what I'm suggesting is straight outta the book.

Let me mention this again... I think there are bigger problems in your game than calling 2 cold with J8s on the button. Everyone has a point here - it's true that this situation will not come up that often to make a big difference.... it's also true that small mistakes like these tend to add up over time if they are made over and over again... But we're missing the bigger picture here....

You misread the board on this hand... This is a MAJOR mistake IMO. If you are multi-tabling maybe you need to back-off a table or two until you can learn to concentrate better. #2 - you played this hand incredibly weak/tight after the flop - my suggestion is to lay down these marginal decisions PF until you can improve your post flop play some.

Just my thoughts... take them for what they're worth....

[adamstewart]

Part of my point in folding J8s in these situations hinges upon one's post-flop ability. Please note that I provided an example showing that this poster's post-flop play is far from superior (no offence).

If one is going to play J8s, one must be able to make big laydowns - including folding a jack-high flop. This is easier said than done (in the heat of the hand), imo.

It's nice to be able to think we can all rely on our 'superior post-flop skills', in order to justify making *very* marginal preflop calls - However, the harsh truth of the matter is that very few of us possess the required skills to consistently outplay 4-5 opponents with hands like J8s. I mean, let's face it, even at $2/$4 and especially $3/$6 nowadays, some of these 4-5 other players are going to hold dominating hands and/or possess at least modest post-flop skills.


Adam

[crunchy1]

Well said Adam!

[lu_hawk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, if this hand isn't suited, I never even think of calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you hearing yourself?... "But it was soooooooted...."



Sorry to be hard on you, but think of our responses as "tough love." After all, the main purpose of these boards is to improve - not to support or 'play down' each others' bad plays.

The fact that you posted this hand means that you think some of these decisions were 'borderline.' I think not.

J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with. Think about it: there's someone who has raised here, and about 4 others who have figured their hands are worth cold-calling with. How much equity do you really think you have here????

Further, what if the flop came Jack-high? Do you think you could still get away from this hand? Because you likely should.

The fact that you continued to chase with a jack-high backdoor flush draw and a double-gutshot tells me that you *wouldn't* be able to get away from a 'marginal' flop.

People keep saying "well, it isn't that bad of mistake... It's only 'cents' not 'dollars' " .... I say Bulls[/i]hit! A -EV play is still a -EV play.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

bad advice should be given in a more modest tone.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are greatly overstating the situation.

i'd imagine folding J8s on the button after 5 limpers is a worse mistake than cold-calling here with J8s.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are greatly overstating the situation.

i'd imagine folding J8s on the button after 5 limpers is a worse mistake than cold-calling here with J8s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur. Not playing decent suited hands against bad players in multiway pots for one bet in position is bad times.

The only truely bad play in this hand is the flop call. The preflop coldcall might cost you pennies on the dollar or it might be 0 EV either way. If you play really well, you might be able to squeze some EV out of this hand.

Brad

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play really well, you might be able to squeze some EV out of this hand.[b]

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I refer you to my second respose.


Adam

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, if this hand isn't suited, I never even think of calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you hearing yourself?... "But it was soooooooted...."



Sorry to be hard on you, but think of our responses as "tough love." After all, the main purpose of these boards is to improve - not to support or 'play down' each others' bad plays.

The fact that you posted this hand means that you think some of these decisions were 'borderline.' I think not.

J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers. Let alone *cold-call* with. Think about it: there's someone who has raised here, and about 4 others who have figured their hands are worth cold-calling with. How much equity do you really think you have here????

Further, what if the flop came Jack-high? Do you think you could still get away from this hand? Because you likely should.

The fact that you continued to chase with a jack-high backdoor flush draw and a double-gutshot tells me that you *wouldn't* be able to get away from a 'marginal' flop.

People keep saying "well, it isn't that bad of mistake... It's only 'cents' not 'dollars' " .... I say Bulls[/i]hit! A -EV play is still a -EV play.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

bad advice should be given in a more modest tone.

[/ QUOTE ]


Statements like that should be supported with reason.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Please note that I provided an example showing that this poster's post-flop play is far from superior (no offence).

[/ QUOTE ]

None taken. I agree and have felt this way for a while. That's why I'm here.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about it: there's someone who has raised here, and about 4 others who have figured their hands are worth cold-calling with.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is 4 players coldcalling a sign of quality hands or bad players?

[ QUOTE ]
J,8s is a horrible hand to limp - even with 4 or 5 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]
This isn't true and I guess you know it.

[adamstewart]

I *just* downloaded pokerstove, so I probably have no clue what I'm doing. So please point out any errors.

Anyway, I just ran a Monte Carol Simulation:

Assigned UTG+1 with typical EP starting hands.
Assigned UTG+2 (raiser) with tyrpical EP raising hands.
Assigned everyone else "Any Broadway, Any Suited, or Any Pair".


Hero with Js,8s had worst equity.


RESULTS:
<font color="blue">
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,674,390 games 296.930 secs 22,477 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 16.7478 % [ 00.16 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Hand 2: 23.3567 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

Hand 3: 14.9835 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Hand 4: 14.9826 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Hand 5: 15.0213 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Hand 6: 14.9080 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { Js8s }
</font>


Please discuss.

Adam

[Entity]

Your hand ranges are way off. There is no way anyone besides the PFR is TT-AA, AKs, etc.

Rob

[beachbum]

Never used Pokerstove so I don't know. Also, I'm not really qualified to answer here but I've never let that stop me /images/graemlins/wink.gif. I have used the twodimes hand analyzer frequently so I can follow here. I see that I have the smallest pot equity. However, how does having the button affect these numbers? I don't know if there's a quantitative way to measure position (I doubt it). It'd be interesting to hear from those experienced in this program and type of analysis.

[Munga30]

Players 3,4, and 5 are *way* too broad. Any pair? Any suited A? That's simply not right.

[Shillx]

EP limper needs to have a wider range of hands.

PFR looks good.

The other people need to have more offsuit hands and fewer suited hands. When you put dominated offsuit hands into the mix, our hero's equity will go up.

There is no way that the other people will have stuff like AA or AK or QQ. For anyone but the PFR, TT-22 and AQ down looks like a good starting point.

Brad

[adamstewart]

see, i don't know how to use it /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I agree with the ranges being too broad.... but if they were more specific, wouldn't DECREASE Hero's equity further.


As to Entity's response. I agree: hands like AA-QQ are unlikley. However, there are many players who won't 3-bet JJ or TT, and some that don't even 3-bet AA-QQ (because they are weak OR for 'deception' /images/graemlins/wink.gif....


I don't know... anyone else wanna give Pokerstove a go?

Adam

[beachbum]

This might help narrow down the range of hands:

The following stats are from my PT database listed in the order of VPIP/PFR/# of hands:

UTG+1: 26/10/98
UTG+2: 28/6.5/61 (pre-flop raiser)
MP2 : 51/3.5/112
MP3 : 12.5/5/191 (poster)
CO : 30/9/44
BB : 72/1.5/131

[Shillx]

Here is what I did. Not too much different.

Hand 1: Hero
2: PFR
3: EP limper
4: MP poster (random minus AA-JJ and AKs/AKo)
5,6: Coldcallers

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,507,250 games 151.859 secs 36,265 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.0945 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { Jc8c }
Hand 2: 26.7551 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 14.6903 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q6s, JTs-J7s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 4: 12.7762 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AQo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J2o, T9o-T2o, 98o-92o, 87o-82o, 76o-72o, 65o-62o, 54o-52o, 43o-42o, 32o }
Hand 5: 15.3432 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K6s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o }
Hand 6: 15.3408 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K6s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o }

Is this reasonable?

I did it again with J9s and we have about 15.4% equity there. You also have to remember that the SB/BB calling will help our cause. If they fold there will be some extra dead money in the pot.

Brad

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is what I did. Not too much different.

Hand 1: Hero
2: PFR
3: EP limper
4: MP poster (random minus AA-JJ and AKs/AKo)
5,6: Coldcallers

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,507,250 games 151.859 secs 36,265 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.0945 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { Jc8c }
Hand 2: 26.7551 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 14.6903 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q6s, JTs-J7s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 4: 12.7762 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AQo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J2o, T9o-T2o, 98o-92o, 87o-82o, 76o-72o, 65o-62o, 54o-52o, 43o-42o, 32o }
Hand 5: 15.3432 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K6s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o }
Hand 6: 15.3408 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K6s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o }

Is this reasonable?

I did it again with J9s and we have about 15.4% equity there. You also have to remember that the SB/BB calling will help our cause. If they fold there will be some extra dead money in the pot.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]



Seems reasonable.

(For the sake of argument, let's say whether the blinds call/fold is offset by the times one of them re-raises).

Now, how do we interpret this?

Let's say, Hero has 15.09% equity. With 6 in a pot, one requires 16.67% (100 divided by 6) to make this a profitable call, doesn't he?


Adam

[Evan]

Nate, do you feel this way even in a game where they're going to rake .75 BB?

[sthief09]

first of all, your numbers are biased. you're representing the typical limping hands of a 25-28 VPIP player, when in reality these limpers were somewhere around 30-40. secondly, you're saying limper limp with premium hands.

I don't think these sims really tell us much. you just have to compare like hands. we know QTs is a cold call. JTs is probably a cold call, so J9s might be/probably is a cold call. J8s can't be that bad

[sthief09]

because you don't have anything

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
J8s can't be that bad

[/ QUOTE ]

It is horrible if hero can't play well postflop.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
J8s can't be that bad

[/ QUOTE ]

It is horrible if hero can't play well postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, yeah. I said that earlier in the thread. chasing with nothing makes this hand pretty unprofitable

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, do you feel this way even in a game where they're going to rake .75 BB?

[/ QUOTE ]


someone's been talking to GoT

[Evan]

haha, scrub is actually more responsible for that than GoT (we spend too much time making prop bets to talk about poker).

Seriously though, I don't think the preflop call is good here (or even neutral), do you?

[sthief09]

yeah, but it doesn't work like that. a pocket pair would not be getting fair share, but you'd still play it because it doesn't cost a lot when you miss and you have a lot of equity when you hit. fair share also assumes everyone goes to the river and everyone has equal position.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
because you don't have anything

[/ QUOTE ]

Well how big does the pot have to be on the flop for calling a flop bet to be right? I was getting 18:1? Do I need 25:1? 30:1?

I had a backdoor flush draw and 2 ways to make a backdoor straight (K,T and 9,T). Only one of these 3 draws is to the nuts (K,T) and with it is the potential to chop. So how many outs do I have? 2? 1.5? Also, I'm not worried about redraws since I'm never making my hand on the turn.

I'm really trying to understand this. Where is the cutoff point regarding size of the pot that makes this flop call +EV? Or how many outs do I need to make this call profitable for the current size of the pot? Hold what ever variable constant you want here.

Don't implied odds play a factor too? If I win the pot it'll be much bigger than the current $36 in there now.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, but it doesn't work like that. a pocket pair would not be getting fair share, but you'd still play it because it doesn't cost a lot when you miss and you have a lot of equity when you hit. fair share also assumes everyone goes to the river and everyone has equal position.

[/ QUOTE ]


ya, that's what i was wondering.

[sthief09]

things you need to consider when you're drawing, off the top of my head:

- how many outs do you have? 1.5 for the backdoor flush draw, and &lt;1 for the straight, so maybe 2 or 2.25 outs
---------------------------------------
- how clean are your outs? can you hit and lose? the bd flush is clean, as is the bd straight. the T9 straight is good and the KT is to the nuts but you'll chop with any J. if someone has 2 pair or a set and pairs the board, your flush will be no good. overall, your outs are clean
- might it be raised behind you? it might. there are 2 players to act after you
- how much will you make if you hit? well, you'll have to chase on the turn, and who knows how many will be around by the river
- might you be forced to fold the turn? if you turn a 9 or K for a gut shot, you might have to fold if there's a raise. further, a K might not put you in a position to chase on the river.
- what are your pot odds? 18:1
- taking this all into consideration, how many "outs" do you need to continue? getting 18:1 with slight implied odds, but you might ahve to fold some straight draws and it could be raised behind you on the flop. so we'll give you 20:1 overall. that means you need about 2.5 outs to continue


so admittedly it wasn't as bad as I thought, but it's just not good practice to chase with nothing

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah, but it doesn't work like that. a pocket pair would not be getting fair share, but you'd still play it because it doesn't cost a lot when you miss and you have a lot of equity when you hit. fair share also assumes everyone goes to the river and everyone has equal position.

[/ QUOTE ]


ya, that's what i was wondering.

[/ QUOTE ]


some people seem to lvoe the fair share argument. I think it only holds weight when it shows that it's obvious that your hand is worth playing. position (both relative and absolute), the type of hand you have (pocket pair is better than fair share and a hand like QJo is worse), etc