Raise or go for overcalls?

[RyGreen18]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero...

Is this a good situation to go for overcalls or should i blast out possible straight draws with a raise? I wanted to build a bigger pot here but feared letting a gutshot see the turn cheap. This one seemed pretty close to me, any suggestions would be much appreciated.

[thirddan]

raise it...

you don't mind if a gutshot folds, and T9 will call you down which is good because half his outs will fill you up...also, someone with an 8 will probably call you down...also, on this flop if one of the blinds had anything worth playing they probably would have either bet or will call two bets...

[poboys]

If you smooth call.. what hands in the BB and SB give you action?

[SinCityGuy]

Don't slowplay this against 4 opponents. Go ahead and raise.

[private joker]

Trips must be fast-played. Raise it. With a set, you have more outs to fill up and it's easier to disguise, and going for overcalls is often correct. But with trips, you must raise for value while your equity is at its peak.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Trips must be fast-played. Raise it. With a set, you have more outs to fill up and it's easier to disguise, and going for overcalls is often correct. But with trips, you must raise for value while your equity is at its peak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this advice is too superficial, especially since there seems to be no account taken for the size of the pot, Hero's position in the hand, the specific texture of the flop, etc. Indeed, the only thing a good player "should" strive to do is to make the play with the highest EV. Consequently, in the hand in question, do you really want to present the SB and BB with two bets cold on the flop? Indeed, do you really mind if either calls the flop with a gutshot or some PP? Might it be better to try to collect an extra SB or two on the flop, and then go for the raise on the turn? Etc.

I'm not saying that it is better to wait until the turn to raise (although that is the way I'm leaning)...just that you need to be asking yourself the right questions when trying to figure out the optimal play.

[captZEEbo1]

I raise turn, get more bets out of hands like 66. 66 might just chk call after flop, but might've folded flop to a raise. People do play like this.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
raise it...

you don't mind if a gutshot folds

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I do


[ QUOTE ]
...also, on this flop if one of the blinds had anything worth playing they probably would have either bet or will call two bets...

[/ QUOTE ]

Really...so you think that there's little chance of someone with a pocket pair checkcalling for one bet but folding for two?

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't slowplay this against 4 opponents. Go ahead and raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, there are only three opponents. Furthermore, I really think we should be considering factors such as pot size, betting position, flop texture, etc. when deciding upon a raise/call decision here.

[thirddan]

this is a more difficult problem to solve because we don't know anything about the players involved...i think that going for the possibility that the SB or BB are willing to pay 1SB with some hand that they checked the flop with is not worth it when we can hopefully get multiple bets in against the bettor...if we know that the bettor is aggro then i think raising is the best since we can hopefully get into a raising war with A8/JT and go off for multiple bets on multiple streets...if we just call here there is no way to know if SB or BB will even call with what are assumed to be random hands (they have shown no aggression) or if the bettor will even lead into us on the turn...


regarding gutshots, many players that will call for one will probably call for 2, it helps that we have a Q to negate some straights...i wonder if having QJ is more EV on this board that AJ??

[adamstewart]

I smooth-call and raise the turn when it hurts most.

There really aren't many (if any) cards that can fall on turn and scare you.

Plus, you have position on everyone, so you know the turn isn't gonna get checked through!

This is an ideal situation to slow-play your strong hand.

Furthermore, if you raise now, the pot is small and what the hell's gonna call you on this drawless board? Slow-playing allows others to catch a second best hand on the turn....

There are so many reasons for slow-playing here, and so little for raising this flop.


Adam

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I smooth-call and raise the turn when it hurts most.

There really aren't many (if any) cards that can fall on turn and scare you.

Plus, you have position on everyone, so you know the turn isn't gonna get checked through!

This is an ideal situation to slow-play your strong hand.

Furthermore, if you raise now, the pot is small and what the hell's gonna call you on this drawless board? Slow-playing allows others to catch a second best hand on the turn....

There are so many reasons for slow-playing here, and so little for raising this flop.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

If they will overcall then we should wait. If they will not overcall then we should wait. If they will call any number of bets on the flop (not too uncommon) then we shoudn't wait.

Brad