Re-raising all-in on the bubble

[Creeper_thp]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1160)
Button (t2085)
Hero (t1210)
BB (t3545)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1210 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t610.

Flop: (t2720) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2720) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2720) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2720

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Button has Kh Qc (one pair, queens).
Hero has Th Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: Button wins t2720. </font>

BB, despite being chipleader was playing extremely tight at this point, and I wasn't exactly flinging chips around myself, so I chalked this up as a steal and figured that I had a good deal of folding equity since of Button's 3 possible outcomes at this point, I think calling and losing does far more harm than calling and winning does good, and he'd still be ahead of UTG if he folds (I'm honestly clueless regarding ICM or if this is even an applicable situation for it, so if someone could throw me a bone on that it'd be nice). Is this just a case of giving him odds that are too good to pass up?

[TheAmp]

Fold.
dont delude yourself he might fold. look at the odds he is getting. even if he knew you had QQ he should call that extra 610.
This hand is a good example of an all-in hand if you are first in, but an easy fold if the pot is raised.
Try not to go out of the money this way.

[Scuba Chuck]

I didn't even look at the white results.

This is an important learning lesson. I hope it stings, so you don't do it again. LOL.

[BigHobo]

No way you were going to get him to fold for an extra 600 chips. You probably have a better chance of getting him to fold by calling, and then pushing on the flop regardless of what shows, hoping he didn't hit.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Scuba, could you elaborate on why you think this play was wrong?

The hero is a short stack, sees a weak raise, and then pushes. He couldn't stop-and-go because he had to force out the BB to isolate.

You guys are correct that the raiser is getting the odds to call, but I don't mind a call if I'm on a short stack and think I have the best hand.

[Creeper_thp]

I'm not going to totally justify my play; if I thought it was some masterstroke of brilliance I wouldn't have questioned it and posted it. But I think that situationally, it made some sense. First, when I said BB was weak, I meant it; there were several times when, as SB, after it was folded to him he had folded to the short stacked BB, and I can guarantee it wasn't a strategic decision to help him steal since he wasn't stealing at all, he was just either weak or card dead. With an aggressive chip leader on my left I would be more willing to wait since he would be pounding the two to my right every time they were in the blinds. Since they were pretty much getting passes, I felt that I couldn't count on one of them busting out; I needed to make a play. Furthermore, as I said, Button can get out of this. Obviously he has odds, but what I'm wondering (and maybe this is going beyond the scope of my question) is if there are situations where a person would ignore their pot odds, especially in a bubble situation, because the correct pot odds play is not the correct situational play. Personally, I was fine with him calling; I was ahead and I felt that I needed to make a move, a call could have brought BB in (as Phil said) and I felt there was a good enough chance Button was stealing with a weaker hand. I probably asked the wrong question, so lets rephrase it to ask whether or not I was right to make a move, and did I aactually have any folding equity (since I factored that into my decision)?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
whether or not I was right to make a move

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your reads and stack size, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
did I actually have any folding equity (since I factored that into my decision)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Wrong or not, people will fold in this spot. If he wasnt willing to consider a fold, he would've pushed to begin with. Maybe he didnt push to avoid a war with the BB, but no matter. You do have some folding equity here against many low limit player. Not much, but every little bit helps.

[JoeTable]

I have terrible "luck" reraising all in with hands like AT on the bubble.

[GimmeDaWatch]

This is one of those situations which I think makes a big difference over the course of many, many sitngos. People can argue over whether there is 0 or just a little tidbit of folding equity, but I think we can all agree that its very very low considering he's getting 3.5:1 to call. That, combined with the fact the the shorter stack is UTG and will be forced to move-in and gamble VERY soon, AND you cant be quite sure you have the best hand make this an easy fold. Had it been folded to you, it would have been much different. Right here Im looking to sneak into the money unless Ive got a monster, or at least a very good hand with very hi folding equity. Let UTG take the risks.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba, could you elaborate on why you think this play was wrong?


[/ QUOTE ]

Philly, thank you for questioning me. I overlooked a fact that makes this closer than I originally thought. First, I overlooked the fact that HERO is the SB, which leads to my second mistake, which is he will have fewer chips if he folds.

Creeper, I owe you an apology.

Let's do the ICM.

Fold: 17.3% of the prize pool.

Push, and villain folds: 27% of the prize pool.
Push, and win: 31% of the prize pool.
Push, and lose: 0% of the prize pool

Two assumptions first. Range of potential hands villain might have. I'm using 66+, A7+, KT+, &amp; QJs.

ATs has a little under 52% equity against this range of hands. (Coinflip).

What is the probability of villain calling. IMO, that range is somewhere between 0-20%.

This variable makes it interesting. I am going to use both 0 and 20 for discussion purposes.

20% Fold probability calculation:
Push = (.20)(.27) + (.8)(.52)(.31) + 0
Push = 18.3% of the prize pool

0% Fold probability calculation:
Push = (.52)(.31) + 0
Push = 16.1% of the prize pool.

This is definately one of those borderline decisions, IMO. In the heat of the action, I'm sure I would fold, and push the next hand with any two against other SS. Other SS will be blinded off before I will. If this was not true, this is a clear push for me. My style is pretty weak tight on the bubble, and in my experience, I like to watch others make mistakes that puts me ITM in these scenarios.

I definately have room for improvement tho. This could be a slight edge that I am not considering.

I am eating too much crow right now, I'll write more comments later.

[ChrisV]

I think this is really, really close. You can forget about button folding, his odds are too good and he won't be running a pure steal (75o or whatever) against the big stack. ICM has equity of fold at 0.173, call 0.294, meaning you need to be a 0.173/0.294 = 58.84% favourite. ATs vs KQo is 61.34% so you had good winning odds here. The question is how often you dominate him vs how often you are dominated by him. If he's the kind of guy who minraises any ace here, I'd push. If he seems somewhat tighter I like folding and then pushing any two next hand.

[Pepsquad]

I like your aggression, but IMO it's simply misplaced and mistimed here. The situation you describe is on of the few bubble scenarios where I'm just simply wanting to get into the money and not even thinking about winning for now.

With UTG as the short-stack, and blinds at 150-300, something is going to happen VERY quickly. Within the next two hands, shortstack has either doubled up, is crippled with ZERO folding equity or is gone. Why would you not wait for that to happen?

I'd like to hear others thoughts on this but to be honest, I'm folding 22-66 here! Flame away.

Pep.

[GauchoFish]

this is an easy hand to second guess yourself on all weekend....if you lose...if you win you don't ever think about it again.

i'd have made probably the same move because a good percentage of the time you'd be staring a weaker ace.


DECISIONS NOT RESULTS...DECISIONS NOT RESULTS


twas a good decision

[microbet]

Not that it would make a huge diff, but this doesn't include the BB who would at least get into the action with a premium hand.

Also, button wasn't tight right? I'd probably include lower PP's into the range of hands.

Both of those would make the number a bit worse for the push. Also, as you pointed out, there may be a very good chance to push next hand.

I think I fold, but I don't think it is a crazy push.

I think there is some FE here. Somewhere between 0-20 is about what I'd say too.

[Scuba Chuck]

I play about 400-500 SnGs a month. I am interested in this hand because I think this is a somewhat common situation. To correctly decide which move is the right LT move will make a slightly positive impact in my LT ROI.

Now that I have had time to think about this more, I still think folding is correct.

If Big Stack, who is UTG next hand, is pushing a lot, then let him lean on SS next hand. If so, no big deal, fold your hand. If he folds, then you push with any two. I think this situation is better than calling.

Frankly, I see the probability of villain calling your reraise-allin to be more likely 99% than 80%. I truly believe folding and applying the above strategy above will provide better LT results.

[mikey checks]

This could be a good play once you're playing 3 handed, but on the bubble I am strictly reraising cards that I want everyones money in the pot with me....
A10 is a bad reraise....not just because you lost, but because A10 is KQ or QJ is not that much of a favorite to play with.

Only time I make this reraise is when I'm chipleader and short stack is raising (maybe) or if I am high on mescaline /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[RobGW]

If BB was playing too tight you should be throwing around your chips stealing his blinds when given the chance. Also, I don't know how you could just chalk this up to a steal attempt. Sure, it probably is but he probably has some sort of decent hand and maybe even a damn good one. There is 0 FE imo. He's already put in 1/3 of his stack and he's getting over 3:1 on his money. Also, you can't assume that he is going to consider everything that you would. When I think of what my opponents are going to do, I think of it from their perspective not mine. EG. I would fold a flush draw if I was not getting odds to chase, but the majority of players wouldn't. I know that so I consider that when I decide what action to take.
So the answer to your question about fold equity is that you have none imo. However, I don't think that raising all in is all that bad a play. It would depend on how many times you get steal opportunities. The BB is playing tight but if the button is playing aggressive you may not get the chance to steal often enough. If that's the case then taking him on right now might be the best play. After all, you probably have the best hand. If you think you can steal in the next few hands then a fold may be correct. I havent run the ICM calcs but I am guessing it would say fold.