IS A BET CORRECT?????

[hbgolfpro]

Lets assume you are heads up....with position...and you have a suited ace. On the turn your opponent checks what you believe to be top pair. You have a flush draw, gutshot straight draw, and an ace is an out also. This gives you 15 outs and makes you a 31-15 dog...or slighty over 2-1. My question is this....is it correct to bet and put more money into a pot that you are an underdog to win? I would say you have to figure the percentage of the time you think you opponent might fold to the turn bet, and then calculate the expected profit of what you will win if your hand is made on the river. Am I correct or no? Missing something? One last thing....unless we have a 15outer on the flop we are always an underdog to a made hand....but good poker is to bet our legitimate draws if there is any chance of a fold...correct?

[dogmeat]

No. You have to quantify "any" chance of a fold. Do the math -

Are you drawing at the nuts?
If you hit a straight/flush/ace, what percentage of the time do you think your hand is good.
Will your opponent call on the river when you hit your hand?
How big is the pot?

Assume the pot is $60 and the turn bet is $10. You make the nuts on a straight/flush or ace and the player will not call you on the river. How often does the player have to lay down his hand on the turn to make your bet a correct one?

How about if he will call when you hit?

How about these same ideas, but you only have a winner when you hit 80% of the time?

Do the math.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif