calling a push

[johnnybeef]

after a losing day yesterday, i went back to review some hh's to see where i was going wrong. two of the aspects of my game that i realized needs work is when to call a push, and when to go over top of someone when it is 4 or 5 handed. i know the 2:1 if <1/3 of your stack rule and to push with more marginal hands against someone who is jockeying for a stack. that being said, could someone please outline a few examples of when and why it is correct to call a push?

thank you,
johnny

[krille]

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.htm

check this out

[11t]

If the stacks are all pretty even and there is one short stack who pushes into you, even if you are getting odds it might be best to lay down really weak hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

Mr Beef. I'm willing to work with you you. But you have to first post some examples that you think my be right first. And also, list your GENERAL RULE of hands that you would be calling with. Meaning, these are the hands you will always call with, in any scenario. Let's assume Level 4+

[johnnybeef]

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http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.htm

check this out

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not working

[sofere]

Should be .html not .htm

[johnnybeef]

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Mr Beef. I'm willing to work with you you. But you have to first post some examples that you think my be right first. And also, list your GENERAL RULE of hands that you would be calling with. Meaning, these are the hands you will always call with, in any scenario. Let's assume Level 4+

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ok let me find a few. to answer your question...hands that i will always call with without exception are jj+, ak, aqs. the rest are all situationally dependent.

[Scuba Chuck]

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...hands that i will always call with without exception are jj+, ak, aqs.

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Good, so with JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK and AQs, you will always call an allin bet. FWIW, I only follow 5 of those, but we're all different.

So, next question, why is it that you're only limiting yourself to 5 hands? (Hint: I am interested in a discusson on odds, and consequences)

[johnnybeef]

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...hands that i will always call with without exception are jj+, ak, aqs.

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Good, so with JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK and AQs, you will always call an allin bet. FWIW, I only follow 5 of those, but we're all different.

So, next question, why is it that you're only limiting yourself to 5 hands? (Hint: I am interested in a discusson on odds, and consequences)

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when on the bubble the proper strategy is extreme aggression with hands that are marginal+ (i.e. any A, Kxs, suited connector, two faces, etc.) in a full handed game. Therefor, it stands to reason that when calling an all in bet with the aforementioned hands you stand to be a favorite as the range of hands you are most likely up against are much worse then these. To quantify this, lets take a look at these hands and add together the collective amount of hands that you are an underdog against.

JJ: QQ,KK,AA (3)
QQ: KK,AA (2)
KK: AA (1)
AA: (0)
AK: because you are a slight dog against any pair i will quantify all pairs QQ and below as 55% of a hand so 11x.55= 6 + AA + KK = (8)
AQs: 8 (all hands that are beat by AK) + AK,KK = 10 and then i will subtract a hand due to the fact that you can make a nut flush with this hand which brings our total to (9).

When all of these hands are added together, we have 23 hands that can beat the range of hands that i will call with. when we take a ratio of this compared to the 91 possible 2 card combinations you can be up against we get 23/91 = 25%, if we subtract aq off this list, the number of times we will be an underdog will be is 14/91 = 15 % of the time.

These calculations are all good and well, but odds are only part of the story...if i only call a push with AA,AK,KK,QQ,JJ i am a target to get destroyed as 4&5 handed can be a warzone.

i realize that it might be best to stick to this rule when up against a push from a passive player, but what should i do against someone who is as aggro as i am?

[Scuba Chuck]

Great odds analysis. Far more than I expected. If I could award extra credit, you'd deserve it.

Let me sum up your statement. IF YOU ARE GOING TO CALL, you want to be sure to call with a hand that you dominate the villain. Otherwise, fold.

I think the above principal holds true, all of the time that you're playing seven handed. You MIGHT loosen these standards when you get to four handed. One caveat tho, stacksize matters in this decision as well (discussion for another day).

The consequence of calling with a less dominant hand leads to what? IMO, a coinflip. You will undoubtedly play coinflips in an SnG, but why do you want to put your tournament life on the line this early with a coinflip? Do you agree?

If so, assuming the BB, also knows this. What is your pushing standards?

[johnnybeef]

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Great odds analysis

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thanks, i was an engineering major fo about 4 years before i decided to go into biz. Furthermore, i feel that i learn a lot more from a problem when i sit down and work it out.

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I think the above principal holds true, all of the time that you're playing seven handed. You MIGHT loosen these standards when you get to four handed.

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when you are 7 handed you are figured to have the best hand about 14% of the time based on the merits of cards alone...when you add in bluffs (5%) bad players who over value their hands(5%) we can say that you stand to have the best hand statistically 25% of the time when someone pushes into you. when you are 4 handed, you can figure that best hand = 25%, bluffs and overvalue of hands to be about 15%. therefor you stand to be a favorite when someone pushes about 40% of the time, BUT

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One caveat tho, stacksize matters in this decision as well (discussion for another day).


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furthermore...

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The consequence of calling with a less dominant hand leads to what? IMO, a coinflip.


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or being dominated

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You will undoubtedly play coinflips in an SnG, but why do you want to put your tournament life on the line this early with a coinflip? Do you agree?


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im not necesarily talking about about early in a tourney, the only reason someone that is a winning sng player should get knocked out of a tourney is b/c of a suckout. my focus of improvement is bubble play. furthermore when you push knowing to be a coin flip you are actually not a coinflip when you add fold equity into the equation. so calling when you are going to be a coinflip at best is not the same as initiating the action when you are probably going to be a coinflip. which brings me back to my original question...do i need to just be a submissive bitch when i am in the bb unless i am strong as steel?

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What is your pushing standards?

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i don't necesarily like pushing all the time, i think that a 3x bb raise is more than sufficient in many cases...if an opponent sees someone raise over the top of you and you flip a solid hand, they will be less likely to come over top as long as you keep your raising consistent. that being said, my raising standards (although another discussion as well) are player and stack dependent, i tend to raise in lp with any ace, any pair, suited connector any two face cards and suited kings often as well.


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If so, assuming the BB, also knows this

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most of the time the bb will fold as they are not willing to put their tourney life on a coinflip especially when they are so close to $ (i am, which is a huge edge in my favor). that being said, when i sit down at a table, i am either the most aggressive person there, or i am out of the tourney.

thanks,
johnny

[raptor517]

good good, you have to play coinflips in a sng. and i am always willing to lose my stack in one, as long as i am the one pushing. if i push into a coinflip, great, but if i CALL. i dont like calling. ever. well, if i got aces, its ok i guess..

[johnnybeef]

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but if i CALL. i dont like calling. ever. well, if i got aces, its ok i guess

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if u have aces, you will never be in a coinflip

[Scuba Chuck]

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You will undoubtedly play coinflips in an SnG, but why do you want to put your tournament life on the line this early with a coinflip? Do you agree?

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I guess I need to define early. Early is definable, in the sense that I am not talking about levels 1-3. And it's undefineable, generally I mean places 4+. So, to me early means anything before ITM. Now due to chipstack size, this may not always be the situation. Therefore, early means "before you have to."

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the only reason someone that is a winning sng player should get knocked out of a tourney is b/c of a suckout.

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Well, I'd like to think that is true, but for me it's not. Mistakes, suckouts, and the exercise of FE, IMO, are probably the reason I go out early.

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my focus of improvement is bubble play.

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This is probably semantics, but bubble play is when there are 4 people left. IMO, middle play and bubble play are equally important, and do have subtle differences in play. I define middle play as anything post level 4, but before 4 players left.

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i don't necesarily like pushing all the time, i think that a 3x bb raise is more than sufficient in many cases...if an opponent sees someone raise over the top of you and you flip a solid hand, they will be less likely to come over top as long as you keep your raising consistent

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Pushing vs Raising in middle play is a debatable subject. Unless I am a massive chip leader, I do not raise, only push. This may be a leak in my game, but my numbers are extremely positive. (This is also a debate for another thread).

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most of the time the bb will fold as they are not willing to put their tourney life on a coinflip especially when they are so close to $ (i am, which is a huge edge in my favor).

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Correct, so how wise or unwise is it to loosen your pushing standards in this situation?

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Let me sum up your statement. IF YOU ARE GOING TO CALL, you want to be sure to call with a hand that you dominate the villain. Otherwise, fold.

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Perhaps I should elaborate a little more. If you call, you want to feel sure that you are at least a 2:1 favorite to win the hand. Mathematically, this is my calling standard.

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do i need to just be a submissive bitch when i am in the bb unless i am strong as steel?


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I AM.

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when i sit down at a table, i am either the most aggressive person there, or i am out of the tourney.


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Depending on how this is applied, this may or may not be a leak in your game. There are many situations in a single SNG game where weak tight is the right move. That is if your objective is to maximize ROI.

[johnnybeef]

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Therefore, early means "before you have to."

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ill agree with that

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This is probably semantics, but bubble play is when there are 4 people left. IMO, middle play and bubble play are equally important, and do have subtle differences in play.

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expand, as this is were i feel i can improve my game the most.

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Perhaps I should elaborate a little more. If you call, you want to feel sure that you are at least a 2:1 favorite to win the hand. Mathematically, this is my calling standard

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ill try it for a little bit and see if it works...but im not going to like it /images/graemlins/wink.gif


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Depending on how this is applied, this may or may not be a leak in your game. There are many situations in a single SNG game where weak tight is the right move.

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perhaps i need to elaborate a little more also...if im sitting with t700-t800 with 4 or 5 people in level 2 or 3, i will back off, but if i see that the table tightens up, it is mine. im not going to let another player bully the blinds.

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if your objective is to maximize ROI.

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it is. on a side note, i am in the middle of a 20 buy in downswing currently. within this swing i have gone all in when 4 or 5 handed 16 times as a favorite and come out a winner 4, i have also gone all in dominating another player 4 or 5 handed 7 times and have gotten sucked out on 5. im losing my mind. normally my style was good as i had an roi of 39 at the 22s after 250 sngs. needless to say it has dropped. (but this is also another discussion.)