AJo UTG - Is this obvious?

[Etric]

MP2 has a VP$IP of 24%; Preflop Raise 8.3%, making him sLA-A according to PT.

MP3 is a typical party fish VP$IP 56%, Post Flop Aggression 0.40.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (3.75 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.37 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (4.87 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 7.37 BB

[DMBFan23]

hi etric:

you can raise this preflop if you want, but that's debated a lot on these boards and there are good arguments on both sides. personally I raise it up.

on the flop, I think I bet into MP2, as he'd raise overcards here and force out the other players (he'd raise hands that beat me too) - going for a checkraise will trap him and the other callers in, and this is a very coordinated board on which you'd like to force out Q's, K's, gutshot draws, and 5 out draws like 45s.

rest of the hand is good, but it probably plays out differently if I raise preflop, so I can't really say what I'd do.

[lu_hawk]

fold the river, TPTK doesn't win 11% of the time or whatever the number is.

[Nick C]

I would probably lead the flop, but I don't know how much doing so will really clear out cards that could go on to beat you. MP2's preflop raise numbers are reasonable, and in all likelihood what he has on the flop is an overpair, a set, or an overcard-plus-gutshot or overcard-plus-OESD type hand. He could also have a hand like 88 or 99, but more likely, if you're ahead on the flop, you're going to be in trouble if a king or queen falls, and there's not much you can do about it. While betting into MP2 and getting raised could get you heads-up, I'm not sure that's what you want. MP3 won't fold a flush draw no matter what you do, and given MP2's probable range of hands, I'm not really sure you want MP3 out.

As a result, I think I like the flop checkraise. It's quite possible that, if you're ahead, MP3's hand is less of a threat to yours than MP2's. And if MP3 is drawing to an ace or a set, keeping him in would be a good thing, since an ace won't help him and he probably won't catch a set. If he stays in with such holdings, at least he'd be adding to the pot those times your hand does end up beating MP2's.

Anyway, I don't know what MP3 is raising with on the river. 66? 7h5h? A set of fours he's slowplayed since the flop? A set of eights or a straight with 97s that he picked up on the turn and slowplayed then?

He is raising two players on the end, so you are most likely beat, if MP3's passive postflop stats were accumulated over a significant number of hands. I probably would have called too, though. You're getting about 13:1, and raises out of nowhere make me suspicious sometimes. (And sometimes they are in fact simply desperation bluff-raises with hands like unimproved pocket threes -- or they are at 2/4, anyway. Based on his stats, I don't know that MP3 would make such a play, though.)

[Etric]

[ QUOTE ]


Anyway, I don't know what MP3 is raising with on the river. 66? 7h5h? A set of fours he's slowplayed since the flop? A set of eights or a straight with 97s that he picked up on the turn and slowplayed then?

He is raising two players on the end, so you are most likely beat, if MP3's passive postflop stats were accumulated over a significant number of hands. I probably would have called too, though. You're getting about 13:1, and raises out of nowhere make me suspicious sometimes. (And sometimes they are in fact simply desperation bluff-raises with hands like unimproved pocket threes -- or they are at 2/4, anyway. Based on his stats, I don't know that MP3 would make such a play, though.)

[/ QUOTE ]

He had Q /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the nuts made on the turn.

[pokerstudAA]

I would raise this up UTG. The check raise on the flop is solid - you didnt represent strength preflop and now need to make the draws pay.

Turn - I dont think the 8 would have scared me off the betting.

River - I cant fold to a raise here even knowing that I am probably beat.

[me454555]

PF: Raise or fold here. I hate limping w/big overcards UTG
Flop: Just bet out. If you want to charge the draws, let mp2 raise and chage em 2 cold. You also get a better Idea of where you are
Turn and River: I play it the same.