KK fold after flop? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

bear187

02-11-2005, 11:08 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

River: (16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)

Final Pot: 16 BB

djshawk

02-11-2005, 11:13 AM

you are probably behind on the flop but have backdoor draws to nut straight & flush. You need to protect your hand to improve your chances of winning, but I'm not sure where its best to do this. On the flop you can give everybody 11-1, on the turn it'll likely be around 7-1. I'd be inclined to do it on the flop, but I'm still a newb at this game so could be way off the mark.

bear187

02-11-2005, 11:17 AM

But anyone with a flush draw is going to have correct odds no matter what, arent they? And then I'm still beat by any ace... remember this is .5/1

Bokonnon

02-11-2005, 11:18 AM

This is my first post (because I finally know one)!

Five players put in four bets each preflop; one of them has an ace.

Flame me for being Jonesian, but I have to fold here. Yes, a lot of bets in the pot, but how many times will you win this? Almost none.

Bokonnon

02-11-2005, 11:19 AM

By "here" I mean flop.

davelin

02-11-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is my first post (because I finally know one)!

Five players put in four bets each preflop; one of them has an ace.

Flame me for being Jonesian, but I have to fold here. Yes, a lot of bets in the pot, but how many times will you win this? Almost none.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have pot odds to call for your 2-outer.

dgoldsmith

02-11-2005, 11:20 AM

PF: Open-raise, don't check. If you had raised and the BB re-raised, that tells you more about his possible hands than the way you played it.

Flop: Raise as well. You want to try to learn if BB has an A. Even if he does, you do have backdoor straight and flush draws.

Changing your PF and flop actions would impact how turn/river would be played, if at all.

Bokonnon

02-11-2005, 11:23 AM

OK, so I didn't know one. (Maybe I should've waited a bit....)

vulturesrow

02-11-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

River: (16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)

Final Pot: 16 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Raise
Flop: Raise
Turn: Raise
River: Call

A lot of problem with this hand stems from the failure to raise the flop. You had a backdoor flush and straight draws, 2 kings (although they could give someone else the straight draw), and what could have easily been the best hand. Raising doesnt really protect your hand, but I consider it a) a value bet and b) gives you a chance to see how much BB likes his hand.

I think some case could be made for calling the flop and then raising the turn.

If you look at the possible range of hands for BB, lets assume he only raises premium hands pf. You are only behind to AA, AK, and TT. But the pot is big already, you have a chance to make people fold incorrectly, and a good percentage of the time you have the best hand.

Stream of thought typing here, but I almost think the turn raise is a must. Not sure about the river play.

adsman

02-11-2005, 11:29 AM

I personally think you're in this trouble because of your limp reraise preflop. This is a great move in no limit because you can blast everyone out preflop or set it heads up. But all you've done is encourage everyone to be in there with you, (apart from the fact that you risked big time going to the flop with an unraised pot.)

And when you go to the flop 5 ways, then someones going to have an Ace. A straight out under the gun raise will make people fold. The limp reraise often just looks as if you're trying it on. The typical $0.50/$1 player in this situation is going to look you up.

jaxUp

02-11-2005, 11:29 AM

Yeah, wow. Don't limp-rr your big pairs pf. That is a BRUTAL play in almost every situation. Just bet out. As Davelin suggested, you have pot odds to chase your 2 outer right now

Dave G.

02-11-2005, 11:35 AM

I'm raising that flop. The ace is a bit scary but you still have a great hand and the pot is huge. You want as many people to fold as possible. (Most won't in a pot this size, but if even one does, it's good.) You may even get an ace with a weak kicker to fold. I don't want to wait until the turn to do this because I want weak cards to fold now before they can hit some crappy 2 pair or whatever. If it's reraised, I cap it. The field may think that I have pocket aces instead of kings (unless someone actually does have pocket aces...) If they don't, well I'm building a huge pot that I have a good chance of winning.

Another benefit of this is that you learn exactly where you stand with BB. It's very hard to tell if BB likes the flop enough to play big with because he never gets the chance to raise.

I'm raising the turn here too. Noone is showing any aggression so far except BB, there's no reason to believe you're beaten. I'd probably just call a reraise, though.

The river is painful. I'd tend to call, and bet if checked to.

No flush draw is going to fold in this pot so I'd tend to get my bets in and let them pad the pot for me, and hope my hand holds up. I'm not sure how well this logic works... I'm still very new myself so if this is crazy loose then someone please tell me so. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

GrunchCan

02-11-2005, 11:44 AM

The pot is big enough so that it's not possible to protect your hand from anything on any street. Moreover, the pot is much too big, and your hand is much too good to ever fold. You must simply call down.

Now, as for your preflop limp-reraise.. The LRR is quickly becoming my personal pet peve. I see people making the play on this board and at party frequently, and it's virtually never the right play.

Truth be told, you probably either lost this hand or lost more than you should have becasue of your PF LRR. I'll bet what happened was MP1 or CO showed down A-rag and took the pot from you. Maybe becasue CO posted he would have called 1 more with A-rag had you simply raised, but this is actually all the more reason to not LRR. If you raised PF, and everyone but CO folded, the resulting pot would be small enough so that you could either protect your hand with some effectiveness or get away from the hand.

The LRR is a dangerous play that only works in a very narrow set of conditions. Among those conditions are that all of your opponents (not some or 1 of them) must be good. That will never be the case at these limits, unless you are at a private 2+2 table. So therefore, you should virtually never LRR.

And I do mean never. Even if there was 1 hand in 10,000 where the LRR was the right play, you lose almost nothing by just raising instead anyway.

GrunchCan

02-11-2005, 11:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but how many times will you win this? Almost none.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do the math. If you spike a K, your set will win something like 75% of the time. There are 2 K's unseen, so you have .75 * 2 = 1.5 outs. 1.5 outs needs close enough to 1:25 to play, which you are just about getting on the flop.

Not only that, but Hero has the best hand sometimes on the flop. People could have 2nd pair, flush draws, or be just bluffing. How often does hero have the best hand? Somewhere around 20% of the time maybe.

Folding the hand is a pretty big error, IMO.

bear187

02-11-2005, 12:04 PM

Thanks. BTW he showed a pair of 8's, hit the set on the river.

GrunchCan

02-11-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I should've waited a bit....

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you should definitely not wait!

Sure, you were wrong. But that's exactly why it's good that you posted. If people only posted things that were right, the forum would have little value. There would be one post, one reply, and the thread would die. Boring, and nobody learns anything.

Most of the value in this forum comes from the fact that wrong posts are usually debated vigorously. There were probably lots of readers who thought just as you did - that Hero's chances were slim, so he should just fold. Now they also know why folding would be a huge error.

So, thanks for posting, and welcome to the forum.

GrunchCan

02-11-2005, 12:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. BTW he showed a pair of 8's, hit the set on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't let the results fool you. Even had you properly raised PF, you were destined to lose this pot, becasue your opponent would have been correct to call your PF raise.

But over the long haul, +EV play gets the money. Don't let individual losses deviate you from +EV play.

bear187

02-11-2005, 12:09 PM

I think I have a date w/ a re-read of SSH :\

GrunchCan

02-11-2005, 12:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have a date w/ a re-read of SSH :\

[/ QUOTE ]

We all do, along with HPFAP, ToP, etc.

Just combine study with lots and lots of play and posting, and you'll be good.

DMBFan23

02-11-2005, 12:39 PM

preflop ain't my cup of tea, but congrats on pwning with the limp reraise.

on the flop, raising doesn't get anyone out that we really need out (yes we'd like a lone J or Q to fold in case we catch the miracle K, but if he's in for 4 bets preflop with a J or Q his other card is probably good enough that he's not folding anyway), and we don't want to get 3 bet at all - we're drawing to the backdoor nut flush, a backdoor straight, and a slightly dirty K. we might expect a raise behind us, but no one except BB has shown aggression so far, and it's .5/1 so expecting lots of calls on your ~4 outer is reasonable. just calling is ok sometimes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

on the turn, raising is also kind of useless. value? protection? you have a draw to the nuts, and you probably aren't winning unless you hit it. another call /images/graemlins/smile.gif

on the river, I really don't think you win this 1 time in 20. you can call for sanity if you want (folding the best hand here would put me on uber tilt), but I fold.

bear187

02-11-2005, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(folding the best hand here would put me on uber tilt)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think I would've had to go jump off a cliff.

SeeWillie

02-11-2005, 04:38 PM

Who showed the 88? What was the river action?

Nick C

02-11-2005, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
preflop ain't my cup of tea, but congrats on pwning with the limp reraise.

on the flop, raising doesn't get anyone out that we really need out (yes we'd like a lone J or Q to fold in case we catch the miracle K, but if he's in for 4 bets preflop with a J or Q his other card is probably good enough that he's not folding anyway), and we don't want to get 3 bet at all - we're drawing to the backdoor nut flush, a backdoor straight, and a slightly dirty K. we might expect a raise behind us, but no one except BB has shown aggression so far, and it's .5/1 so expecting lots of calls on your ~4 outer is reasonable. just calling is ok sometimes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

on the turn, raising is also kind of useless. value? protection? you have a draw to the nuts, and you probably aren't winning unless you hit it. another call /images/graemlins/smile.gif

on the river, I really don't think you win this 1 time in 20. you can call for sanity if you want (folding the best hand here would put me on uber tilt), but I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have much to add to this, but I thought I'd quote the analysis just to emphasize it.

Here's what I do have to add:

I would have just raised preflop the first chance I got, unless I was pretty sure limp-reraising would get me the preflop result Hero got or something close to it. I know a lot of people have been criticizing the limp-reraise in this hand, but, to be results-oriented for a second, the result Hero got was pretty great (well, unless it was AA that the big blind capped with).

One other thing: On the river, I probably would call. I agree that the chances of Hero's hand being best at this point are fairly slim. Still, only one player has shown any postflop strength during the hand. So I'd call hoping he had a lower pocket pair (I guess JJ is what I'd be hoping for or maybe a different hand that he overplayed preflop, possibly out of annoyance at the LRR) and that no one else had top pair or better.