my Raymer hand

[SossMan]

Final table, 6 left.

I have a pretty big chip lead of about 100k.
I'm in the CO.
Button is a solid player who knows that I've been stealing and he has 40k.
SB is solid, but a little tight. He has around 25k.
BB is unknown and has 15k.
UTG has a shortstack.
MP has 12k.

blinds are 4000-8000.

UTG folds.
MP moves in for 12k.
I flat call for 12k with 8
/images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Good button player pushes for 40k total.
blinds fold and it's back to me.
I break out the calculator.

It's 28k back to me.
There's 28k + 12k + 12k + 12k + 4k + 8k = 76k

So, it's about 3:1.

thoughts?

[superleeds]

Well he's the one player you don't want to double up but folding will acheive that anyway, so gamble it up.

[BlackAces]

I'd say this is a call. The only way you're not getting odds is if one of them has an overpair to your 9. Interestingly enough, you have odds even if you're dominated (except by an overpair).

[betgo]

Why not push preflop? If you get everyone to fold, you have 2-1 pot odds with the blinds. Use the big stack. If you are going to call a raise, you might as well raise.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Final table, 6 left.

I have a pretty big chip lead of about 100k.
I'm in the CO.
Button is a solid player who knows that I've been stealing and he has 40k.
SB is solid, but a little tight. He has around 25k.
BB is unknown and has 15k.
UTG has a shortstack.
MP has 12k.

blinds are 4000-8000.

UTG folds.
MP moves in for 12k.
I flat call for 12k with 8
/images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Good button player pushes for 40k total.
blinds fold and it's back to me.
I break out the calculator.

It's 28k back to me.
There's 28k + 12k + 12k + 12k + 4k + 8k = 76k

So, it's about 3:1.

thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 2.7:1 on the whole pot, but 1:1 on the side pot if the short stack has a real hand. And the side pot will be bigger than the main.

If it were me, I'd wait for a better spot.

[schwza]

why'd you call to begin with?

[Rushmore]

My thought is that calling preflop is the mistake here, as you hold a speculative hand and have no implied odds whatsoever. You also have players yet to act behind you, as you so definitively found out.

Muck it and let someone else pick him off.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
My thought is that calling preflop is the mistake here, as you hold a speculative hand and have no implied odds whatsoever. You also have players yet to act behind you, as you so definitively found out.

Muck it and let someone else pick him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

the MO of the table would usually have been a littany of preflop calls followed by a gaggle of postflop checks...I'm not sure that changes anything, as I guess I could have simply folded to the first all in.
I think calling the other guy is definitely +chipEV...I'm just not sure of the stack implications and the cashEV implications.

SossMan

[BlackAces]

I think it's still at least slightly +$EV, just because of the fact that probably about 25% of the time, you'll end up with three-quarters of all the chips on the table -- and you'll likely go on to win more than 3/4 of the time on top of that. Even if you lose this hand, the worst position you can end up in is second with 60K, trailing the leader by about 45K.

[nolanfan34]

I think the most important number in this equation is 2, which is the number of people you can knock out potentially. Given the fact that the rest of the table is still shortstacked, you're still going to be second in chips even if you lose to both players.

You also have a hand that has a good chance of drawing live against these two opponents. Some very basic odds possibilities against some potential holdings:

UTG - 55 - 29.5%
You - 89s - 32.7%
CO - AKo - 37.8%

And even if you're way behind:

UTG - KK - 53.5%
You - 89s - 23.1%
CO - AQo - 23.4%

So overall, given the range of hands the two can hold, I think it's a pretty easy call.

The only debateable part in my book is your call PF. I know EV is the only decision that matters usually, but I'm always wary of situations where a call becomes "correct", only because I put chips in the pot in the first place that might not have been correct. Like in this hand, you created a situation where you have good odds to call the all-in, but I think it's somewhat debateable whether it was worth making the first call to begin with.

[SossMan]

I couldn't resist the price, so I called.

I was up against AJ and KJ, none of my suit, so I had about 40% equity getting 3:1.

Flop was 9TK two spades.

turn red 4.

river red 9.

[SossMan]

yeah, i agree. I was hoping that my call would elicit a bunch of calls and checking down to the river. that's the common situation there

[Absolution]

Like an online freeroll (well, except you can't steal in those). Weeeee. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
river red 9.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see that you are starting to grasp MLG's luckbox theories.

Regards,
Woodguy

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, i agree. I was hoping that my call would elicit a bunch of calls and checking down to the river. that's the common situation there

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't fathom playing with people that passive. Aren't you California guys supposed to be crazy?

[SossMan]

i had the table by the nuts.

[betgo]

What do you accomplish with a buch of calls? I would rather play this hand heads up with 2-1 pot odds.

If people call, a lot of them will be practically allin. I find it hard to believe players will call and check it down this late with this high blinds. Any hand anyone plays pretty much has to be allin.

[MLG]

I don't like the first call, but once you make that, the second one is pretty much a must.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the first call, but once you make that, the second one is pretty much a must.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's kinda what i concluded

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
that's kinda what i concluded

[/ QUOTE ]

you and me coming to the same conlusion, I'm shocked.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't resist the price, so I called.

I was up against AJ and KJ, none of my suit, so I had about 40% equity getting 3:1.

Flop was 9TK two spades.

turn red 4.

river red 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

As it turned out, you were getting 2.7:1 (not 3:1) on the pot as a whole, with 36% equity. You got an overlay. Congrats.

Of course, what you actually got doesn't matter. What matters is your equity against the range of hands they might have.

I ran some simulations on PokerStove against some reasonable all-in hands for the short stack, and a tighter group of reraising hands from the blind reraiser. You had about 25-28% equity against those ranges. So, 3:1 to 2.6:1. All in all, a barely negative EV situation.

What's more, if the short stack had a real hand, you had 41% equity on the side pot of 56K against overcards, and half that against another overpair.

All in all, a poor first call, and a marginal second call.

Glad it worked out for u.

[betgo]

You may be looking at too big "all in hands". 98s is fine unless you are up against an 88 or higher pp. I wouldn't expect a big hand here.

With the blinds that big, I want to play 98s. I want to fight for the blinds. I would push and pressure the smaller stacks. Folding is OK, and limping isn't that different from pushing.

[SossMan]

what was the range of hands for the all in player. It should be close to any two cards.

the reraiser should know this and be pushing with less than premium cards, though somewhat better than average. Something like AA-55, AK-AT, KQ, KJ, QJs, maybe a few more.

What's it look like then?

[Jake (The Snake)]

These are the kind of situations I like to avoid for this reason. It is simply impossible to determine the probably based on the range of hands when you are at the table. The best you can do is estimate, and the very fact that we have to use simulations tells me the estimate is very close to the price you are getting on the pot.

In these situations, I prefer to keep my chips since I know that staying in the game with a good chip stack against weak players is makes for many more opportunities of +EV.