$50 6 max - KQs - Strange hand - comments please

[ipp147]

Postflop comments please.

In hindsight I think that the BB was just get frisky, I'd taken down a few pots without a showdown and I think he was testing me on the flop.

In particular is my river bet awful?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($56.45)
MP ($35.67)
CO ($77.5)
Hero ($84)
SB ($83.41)
BB ($70.8)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2, UTG folds.

Flop: ($7.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($35.50) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($35.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: $60.50

[istewart]

Disregarding comments about the BB...

On the flop it looks like a set, AK, or a flush draw. All of which will call the river a majority of the time, so I don't really like it.

[TheWorstPlayer]

They won't call that frequently once the flush hits. And if they are planning on calling, they will lead out. The check on the river almost always shows weakness there.

[istewart]

That's a good and obvious point. I completely disregarded the river check.

Don't pay attention to my post. Damnit I'm tired.

[istewart]

I still think it's a rather big bet for what you want to look like a value bet.

[ipp147]

[ QUOTE ]
They won't call that frequently once the flush hits. And if they are planning on calling, they will lead out. The check on the river almost always shows weakness there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi TWP,

I was with the other replier - I thought set or flush draw with the flop check-raise.

When he checked the turn and river I pretty much removed those as possible holdings.

My question then is, what range of hands to you put him on.

Total bluff?
Medium pair?
Weaker K?

That's why I question my river bet. I think he calls with a set. He obviously calls with a flush.

Shouldn't I have just checked behind?

[Kaz The Original]

Hmm... I'm not sure about the flop call, but with the right "feel of the table" (especially with you taking a few pots down uncontested) I can see it. I would 100% bet the turn.

[Biff M.]

Hi Kaz,

Will I ever see my $20 on PS again?

[istewart]

These are good points now that I think about it.

Most of the time you just straight up have him. I honestly don't think he folds a set on the river unless you know his play., though. I might check, myself. Interested in TWP's opinions.

[Kaz The Original]

argh! I completely forget... I will transfer that to you tomorrow. Sorry!

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, you can definitely check behind. I'd say you have him here 90% of the time. His most likely holding is a weaker king. Second most likely is a pocket pair below king. Third most likely is a stone cold bluff. Fourth most likely is a set. Fifth most likely is a flush. This is of course, just in my opinion, but it is based on the way that he bets.

I think the key to the read is the turn check and then the river check. He could certainly raise the flop with any of those hands. Now, the question is, why does he check the turn?

Most likely is that he had a hand that he thought might be good on the flop, but once you call his flop raise, he doesn't think it is good anymore. That would be a weaker king or a pocket pair below king.

Second most likely reason to check the turn is probably that it was just a bluff that he has given up on. (The likelihood of this of course depends on the opponent.) Third (or possibly second) most likely reason to check the turn is that he was intending to check/raise the turn. That could possibly be consistent with a set, but I think a set is more likely to keep firing on the turn. The least likely reason for him to check the turn, in my opinion, is that he was raising a draw on the flop and is now trying to get a cheap look at the river. Here, however, I think most people would bet small hoping that you are afraid to raise since they raised the flop.

OK, so now the question is why would he check the river? If he has given up on the hand, either because he was bluffing or had a pair below king, or had a weak king, then you can check behind and there is nothing lost. You can also bet big like you did and hope he reads it as a bluff or something and calls with his weak hand, but that is quite unlikely in my opinion.

If he was planning on check/raising the turn, then why does he check the river? If he had a set, he would probably make a value/blocking bet on the river. If he had a flush, he would probably make a value bet on the river. So once he checks the river he very likely has a hand that you are beating and he very likely will fold to a bet. The only advantage to betting that I see is in the (unlikely) scenario that he actually has a set, that he was planning on check/raising the turn, AND that he has put you on the flush draw and given up on the river. In THAT case you will be able to move him off of the set. But that seems quite unlikely, so I would check behind and expect to take it down most of the time.

[emil3000]

I would make a small value bet here. Like a third of the pot. In this situation I think that works better than the overbet. Might be wrong though. I certainly feel that the river should be bet. You've almost certainly got the opponent beat, and shouldn't fear a raise. If he raises I would be really suspicious and probably call it. I think opponent probably has a weak king or second pair, which he might pay off a small bet with. He could also have absolutely nothing, and then he won't call. Well, that's life.