Progress at 275: Is it statistically significant?

[GauchoFish]

I have logged 275 tourneys (30+3) with an ITM of 42%, ROI of 32.6% and Win % of 16%...and since the very beginning these numbers have been quite consistent, with ITM never dipping below 39%, though my win rate has gone up about 4% in the last 100 tourneys.

Have I reached the point where I can reasonably assume this is an accuarate long term depiction of my play? Or is this still too small a sample?


Any thoughts on these numbers? If i can sustain this, is this a strong showing for these tourneys or is it possible to get the ITM and ROI much higher?


Thanks


WD

[snowbank]

From what I remember back when I was in the one-table tourney thread alot, 500 games is a pretty accurate sample. I think some said it was only like 300 or so, but 500 was what stuck in my head.

[snowbank]

I would say you are fine to move up though if that's what you are asking. If you just want to make sure you are a winning player, your sample size is plenty. You'd be fine at the $55's.

[ilya]

ROI-wise, no, this sample is not large enough. your high ITM% is a good sign, though....your real ROI may be substantially higher/lower (lower is more likely), but you're most likely a winning player.

[The Yugoslavian]

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I have logged 275 tourneys (30+3) with an ITM of 42%, ROI of 32.6% and Win % of 16%...and since the very beginning these numbers have been quite consistent, with ITM never dipping below 39%, though my win rate has gone up about 4% in the last 100 tourneys.

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That's pretty dope -- good job.

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Have I reached the point where I can reasonably assume this is an accuarate long term depiction of my play?


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No.

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Or is this still too small a sample?


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Yes

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Any thoughts on these numbers?


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They indicate you are most likely at worst a winning 33 player which is nothing to scoff at. They also indicate you take meticulous stats. Oh, and that perhaps you don't understand SNG variance as well as you could (but that's why you're asking of course /images/graemlins/wink.gif ).

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If i can sustain this, is this a strong showing for these tourneys or is it possible to get the ITM and ROI much higher?


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Yes, sustaining these numbers would be great. You'd be a *very* solid 33 player. Higher numbers are probably attainable (and sustainable) but not too much higher.

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Thanks


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You're welcome. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Yugoslav

[rachelwxm]

How many table do you play once? I think your number is really good if you multitabling. While you are certainly a winning player, don't trust this as a long term ROI.

Using the spread sheet and find out how wide your 99% confidence level is. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[GauchoFish]

not really lookin to move up, i try the 55's on occasion, but for where i'm at in life (just out of college, low everhead) the funds this is kikkin of will be fine if i can sustain them.

just in case i do decide to take the jump:

any adivce you'd give on adjustments? any significant difference in the quality of competition?

thanks


WD

[GauchoFish]

could you possibly break this down for me?

if the ITM remains constant, why would the ROI not do the same? i don't see your reasononing. Is that just a fancy way of saying it is possible this is just a run of good luck?


More to the point: What is a VERY STRONG yet sustainable ROI/ITM for the 30+3's?


Thanks

WD

[GauchoFish]

i'm tryin to tackle this penultimate spreadsheet but i'm not an accounting person so it'll probably take me another week to convert my stats over.

2-4 tables at once, i'd say 3 on average. Most difficult part of this is having them all open at once, because i try and stagger them.

This is my system, anybody got a better one?

Open table 1.
when table one gets to 15-30, open table two
When table one reaches 50-100 or 6 players, open table three.
When table two reaches 50-100 or 6 players, open table four.
When a table ends and it wasn't a bad beat that may potentially put me on tilt, i open another table. If i'm feeling borderline tilted, i finish off my tables and take a break. I take many breaks.



Am i being too cautious? I just don't see it as wise to pop open three or four tables at once, i'd hate to be heads up on three tables at the same time (well not really /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

WD